UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for July 22 with Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura headlining the event. The main card starts up at 3:00pm ET from O2 Arena in London, England.
WagerTalk also offers Free UFC Picks all year long!
Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event
UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions
Jafel Filho -120 v Daniel Barez +100
The odds reflect what I think will be a great fight, and it's tough to take a lot away from Filho's last fight against Mokaev because Mokaev works the takedowns and wrestling so much, but Filho held his own and did some damage to Mokaev's knee on the ground.
Filho's last 10 wins have come by finish as he has really good hand speed, decent kicks and really good power behind the punches. He's good on the ground, but I worry about his striking defense as he leaves himself open at times.
Barez fights in a similar fashion with lots of finishes on his record, knockout power behind his strikes, and his last loss was on Contender Series to Carlos Hernandez, and that loss does not look bad at all as Hernandez has won two UFC fights since then and dropping one to Nacimento.
That fight could've gone either way as it was a split decision, but I think Barez's weakness might be the wrestling and ground game of Filho, and that's why I lean Filho in this one. If you're a live bettor and you see Filho having early success on wrestling or takedowns, take Filho.
Bruna Brasil -130 v Shauna Bannon +110
The only way I can play anything in this fight is to take overs. For UFC standards, it's fairly low level. Bannon is making her UFC debut and is undefeated, but I wouldn't write home against her opponents, and she doesn't finish as her last three fights have gone to decision.
She can take her opponents down and work ground and point, but I don't know if she can do it at the UFC level.
Brasil had a nice KO on Contender Series, but got a brutal matchup in her UFC debut against Denise Gomes who has shown great striking and power in her last two fights.
Bannon has the better ground game so I'll lean to Bannon for the win, but I'll be putting my money on an over of some kind.
Chris Duncan -115 v Yanal Ashmouz -105
Duncan is a tough fighter who loves his kicks to the legs and body to keep the distance and set opponents up for shoots and takedowns.
He recently won a close decision against Omar Morales in a fight that was low volume with strikes, but give credit to Duncan as he had the cardio, offense and defense to get the best of Morales.
He'll fight Yanal Ashmouz who is coming off a bizarre win against Sam Patterson who is much much taller than him, but Yanal caught a kick, landed a punch and then landed another square on the jaw as Patterson was falling down to knock him out.
Credit him for the win, but it was early in the fight so we didn't get a lot of film to watch on him. He's undefeated, but without seeing much film from him at the UFC level, I don't know if the KO was lucky or a sign of things to come from him.
For that reason, I can't make any plays on this fight as I think Yanal will have the speed edge, but Duncan will have the grappling edge and I don't see any edge in betting this fight.
Ketlen Vieira -200 v Pannie Kianzad +160
I don't really have anything amazing to say about this fight, other than take the over. Either one could win this fight, but slight lean to Vieira as I think she has the stronger strikes which should do more damage, but no chance I'm paying -200.
Kianzad has had eight straight fights go to decision, and 19 of her 22 fights have gone the distance as well. Vieira has had 16 fights with 13 of them going the distance including her last five. Neither of these women have a win by finish in five years, and I don't see one happening here.
Makhmud Muradov -300 v Bryan Barberena +240
Muradov is coming off of two losses to Caio Borralho and Gerald Meerschaert, two fighters who make their money with takedowns, ground games, and submissions.
Muradov doesn't have to worry about that with Barberena who just stands and strikes, and he's coming off of two losses to guys who exploited Barberena's weakness on the ground as dos Anjos and Gunnar Nelson submitted Barberena.
Muradov can be chaotic on the feet leaving himself open for counter strikes, and that's the worry I have with him. Muradov should have a game plan focused on attacking the non-existent ground game of Barberena, but he just doesn't seem to want to go that route, and it's why I can't take him at this price, even in parlays.
As much as I like fading Barberena, Muradov could absolutely get cracked on the feet and at this price it's much to risky.
Jamal Pogues -140 v Mick Parkin
Parkin surprised everyone by winning on Contender Series, but his opponent gasses within two minutes of the fight starting, and in that two minutes Parkin was getting beat.
Pogues isn't the most exciting fighter in the world, but he's really tough and has a good gas tank. He won his UFC debut against Josh Parisian in a fairly boring fight, but I've seen plenty of fighters making their UFC debut get too excited and gas out early so I thought his game plan was solid and played it smart.
Parkin has fought six pro fights, and he's won them all, but the combined record of his opponents is 23-46 and he's only been out of the first round twice, and his last fight that went to round two he was gassing quick, but luckily for him his opponent sucked. Parkin will need to finish this on the ground, but I don't think he can get it there without tiring himself out.
He'll have to get it on the ground early and finish early, otherwise Pogues will have more cardio and will win on the feet which is what I see happening. It's a fair price on Pogues, I'll be betting this one.
Joel Alvarez -145 v Marc Diakese +120
Diakese is Top 3 in lack of fight IQ in the UFC so I won't be betting on him…ever. He had lost two fights in a row, and then won two in a row by implementing a takedown game, and then in his last fight against Michael Johnson he abandoned it completely and he also decided to add taunting and goofing around during the fight to his game plan which resulted in a loss.
Alvarez was on a 14-1 run with his one loss being to Damir Ismagulov, and he capped off the winning streak with a violent finish of Thiago Moises, but next fight he got dominated and finished by Arman Tsarukyan where he was beaten to a bloody pulp on the ground. So what version of of Joel Alvarez will we get?
I think it will be closer to the one we saw against Thiago Moises. Diakese is nowhere near the caliber of opponent of Tsarukyan or Ismagulov (Alvarez's losses), and even if Diakese gets a takedown, he really doesn't do much with it as his offense on top is not great.
On the feet, I think Alvarez is more sharp, and powerful, and his last 12 wins have all come by finish so if you like him to win take him ITD.
Diakese has low upside with his offense as his last win by finish was in 2017 and his fight IQ is brutally bad so I'll side with Alvarez to get the win by finish.
Daniel Marcos -120 v Davey Grant +100
Marcos is an exciting, explosive fighter who had a long layoff during COVID, but came back with impressive win on Contender Series and in his UFC debut. He has vicious leg kicks, incredible knees and every strike is thrown with 100% effort.
He damaged his opponent early and often in his UFC debut, but he showed a few signs of getting tired, and was sloppy at times leaving himself open for counters. Grant is a cagey UFC vet who has won two in a row, he's well rounded and he doesn't have hardly any weaknesses, but he also has reached his ceiling I believe.
He has decent strikes, and he can grapple and submit as evident by his insane triangle win against Assuncao.
This fight is going to come down to the power of Marcos vs the well rounded game of Grant, and the odds tell you how close this fight is. I think it could be a good fight to start round 2, but as for the winner, it's too close to call for me.