UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for July 1 with Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov headlining the event. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.
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Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event
| Saturday, July 1 | UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars) |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Sean Strickland -170 vs Abus Magomedov +150 |
| Rounds: | 3.5 Rounds (Over -135 / Under +105) |
| Fight Time: | Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT |
| Arena: | UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV |
| TV: | ESPN |
Our big play last week was on Taira, and that fight got cancelled so it ended up not being a very fun weekend. Hopefully, all the fights stays as scheduled so we can get back to cashing our big plays.
All official plays can be found here: http://wt.buzz/al
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UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions
Alexandr Romanov -140 v Blagoy Ivanov +115
Who knows what Alexandr Romanov will show up this week, and that pretty much will determine the outcome of the fight.
Romanov did a great job beating up bad competition, but he took a controversial loss against Marcin Tybura, and then showed up completely out of shape against Volkov and Volkov made quick work of him.
Romanov takes guys to the ground, and ground and pounds or submits, but if he doesn't finish the fight early he has no cardio, and he's a sitting duck. Ivanov has lost five fights as a pro, but three are in his last four fights and his best days are behind him.
He is just going to have to survive the first round by staying on the feet or if it goes to the ground, somehow avoid getting finished.
That's going to be tough as he's smaller than Romanov, but if he survives he can win rounds two and three. There's no way I can bet on this fight as we'll have to wait and see how Romanov looks at weighins.
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Ivana Petrovic -225 v Luana Carolina +185
Petrovic will make her UFC debut, and you can expect her try and push Carolina against he fence, work the clinch to transition into takedowns where she will work for the rest of the round on the ground.
That's her style, and if she has success at that strategy she'll win. I'm not high on Carolina, I don't think she has a great skill set, but she'll try and keep this on the feet and win a striking battle. So who will be able to implement their strategy?
I think Petrovic will. Carolina has sloppy footwork, and a bad center of gravity that someone like Petrovic can take advantage of.
Carolina's striking is better than Petrovic's, but I don't think it will be enough to stop Petrovic from coming forward and getting the takedowns. This fight could be pretty boring, but I like Petrovic to win.
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Guram Kutateladze -550 v Elves Brenner +400
I don't need to go into a lot of detail into this fight. Guram should have Brenner covered everywhere in this fight.
He beat Gamrot in his UFC debut, and then lost a split decision to Damir Ismagulov in a battle of two elite guys who have very similar styles. Brenner is a good fighter, but he's just not as polished and as crisp as Guram.
He leaves himself open on the feet to strikes and takedowns, and Guram doesn't need a big opening to pounce.
Brenner throws solid strikes, especially leg kicks, but Guram won't let him land many of those with returning big counters or takedowns. Guram wins this, and I think it's a pretty dominating performance coming off a loss.
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Karol Rosa -165 v Yana Santos +135
Neither of these fighters are very impressive to me, and I don't think I want to bet anything on an outright winner in this fight. I would definitely take this fight to go the distance or to start round 2 or 3 as I don't see either of them finishing the other.
Santos has lost two in a row (and got finished and dominated in those two fights), and Rosa got beat up by Norma Dumont in her last fight, and barely beat Lina Lansberg in the fight before that.
I guess taking a flyer on Santos might be worth a look as I think her striking is a bit better, but the danger for Santos is that she got taken down easily against Holly Holm, and Rosa might try and go that route. I don't have a great feel for this fight, except for the over.
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Joanderson Brito v Westin Wilson
I don't have lines for this right now, but Wilson is a last second replacement to face Brito, and Brito will run through him.
Wilson has fought nobody of any merit, and he likes getting takedowns and finishing on the ground, but he won't get close to taking Brito down.
Brito can knock him out on the feet or take his back and submit him, but the only way to play this fight is to take the under or Brito ITD. Brito is an animal and won't take this fight lightly, he'll get a quick finish similar to his last two fights.
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Rinat Fakhretdinov -225 v Kevin Lee +190
Kevin Lee might look a bit stronger than Rinat, but I like the path Rinat is on right now and I think he gets the win over Lee.
Lee is not very active as his last fight was in March of 2022 where he beat Diego Sanchez in Eagle FC, and before that he lost to Daniel Rodriguez in 2021, and I'm not sure how he can go from losing to Daniel Rodriguez and beating Diego Sanchez by decision to beating Rinat who has won 16 in a row.
Rinat made his UFC debut in spectacular fashion by dominating Bryan Battle, who I'm a fan of. He used striking and wrestling to win every round, and I think he's a bit better than Kevin Lee everywhere.
I really don't like the lack of activity from Kevin Lee, and if he's a half step slow Rinat will have him on the ground in no time as he does a great job using his strikes to set up the takedown. The price is pretty fair here, but I think Rinat is a solid parlay piece.
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Nurselton Ruziboiev -165 v Brunno Ferreira +140
Ferreira shocked the UFC world by flatlining Gregory Rodriguez in his UFC debut that he made on short notice. It showed his one shot knockout power, and in my opinion, as lethal as his one shot power is it's about all he has.
He's not well rounded, and he's going to face a fighter who is well rounded, and he presents loads of problems. He's 28 years old, and 34-8 in his pro career, and he's 6'4″ and incredibly he weighs 173 pounds.
He can take guys down, and loves submitting guys on the ground. He has very skinny legs so Ferreira would be wise to try and work leg kicks, but Ruziboiev does a great job and using jabs and kicks to keep the distance.
Ferreira is going to have to get inside of Ruziboiev to land his kill shot, and if he does he can certainly get the KO, but if Ruziboiev gets him on the ground, a submission will be likely.
The last seven fights of Nurselton have ended in the first round, and eight out of ten fights for Ferreira have ended in the first round so taking an under would be wise. As for who wins the fight? Slight lean to Ruziboiev, but with Ferreira's power I wouldn't rule out a win for The Hulk.
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Ismail Bonfim -285 v Benoit Saint-Denis +240
I'm high on Bonfim, but not -285 high against Saint-Denis. Saint-Denis lost his UFC debut to Zaleski by decision, but responded by beating Niklas Stolze by getting takedowns and eventually getting the finish.
He then knocked out Gabriel Miranda, who probably isn't UFC caliber so he's done what he should do the last two fights, but Bonfim is a different animal.
Bonfim has really quick strikes, and he can wrestle and takedown if the opportunity presents itself, but Terrance McKinney was able to take him down last fight before Bonfim reversed.
This is a really close fight, but I give the striking advantage to Bonfim and the wrestling/grappling is a toss up. I lean Bonfim to win, but the odds stop me from betting this fight. (If you haven't seen Bonfim's knockout of Terrance McKinney, it's incredible)
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