UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night and picks for July 13th with Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka headlinin g the main event in a women’s flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Ball Arena in Denver, CO.
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Josh Fremd -125 vs Andre Petroski +105
Josh Fremd is a tough one to figure out. He lost to Fluffy and Kopylov, superior opponents, but he beat Pickett and Dumas who are lesser opponents, and although he lost to Tresean Gore, he was winning the fight easily til Gore pulled off a hail mary submission.
The point is, Fremd has a low ceiling, and I think Petroski is a bit better than Fremd's ceiling, but there's a big problem with Petroski in this matchup and that's his cardio, and this fight is in Denver at altitude.
We've seen Petroski really fall apart the longer the fight goes on, and don't be surprised if it happens again here.
It's not a confident pick, but I think Fremd gets the win as I can see Petroski winning the first round, and getting tired and Fremd winning rounds two and three with his grappling and ground game.
Montel Jackson -148 vs Da'Mon Blackshear +124
I think Blackshear at +124 is the play here as I'm not that impressed with Montel Jackson and his level of competition.
Blackshear took Mario Bautista to a decision in a fight he took on a week's notice after getting a twister submission before that.
He's shown good skills on the ground, and his striking isn't amazing, but it's good enough to make opponents have to respect it.
Montel Jackson fights once a year, and when he fights it's normally against a bad opponent. He's won four in a row, but beating old Rani Yahya, injured Julio Arce, JP BUys and Jesse Strader isn't impressive in the slightest.
Jackson should be a bit better on the feet, but I think Blackshear can get some takedowns and win a couple rounds. I like this fight to go the distance as well, but Blackshear at plus money is a good underdog play.
Luana Santos -285 vs Mariya Agapova +230
Life has not been easy for Agapova as she's had injury and money problems, and while my heart goes out to her, I'm happy to get a chance to fade her again.
She's 1-3 in her last 4 fights, and in her last UFC fight she openly fought while injured so she could get paid to have surgery, and she was brutally submitted by Gillian Robertson.
She hadn't fought since that fight in October of 2022, and she just tried to fight at Karate Combat on May 30, and she lost in 31 seconds in a grappling match due to heel hook.
Santos isn't anything super special, but she's 2-0 in the UFC with decent striking and good clinch work, and she's shown good takedowns and ground control in spots. Santos is limited, but she's the pick as Agapova is complete fade material right now.
Katima Kline -130 vs Jasmine Jasudavicius +110
Kline will be making her much awaited UFC debut, and although she's only 6-0 in MMA, she has an extensive grappling career, and she's more than ready.
Her level of competition hasn't been great, but she's been very convincing in her wins, and the only concern I have with her is that she only has two finishes.
She's dominated women with bad MMA records, but not getting the finish is a little bit suspect. She has nice striking combinations that set up her takedowns where she does great work on the ground, but Jasudavicius can hold her own on the ground.
I also think Jasudavicus is going to be much better at striking than anything Kline has fought so far so I see a close fight, and I can't really pick a winner here.
The step up in competition is going to be tough for Kline, but her cardio, aggression and grappling will keep Jasmine on her toes. I can't pick a winner here, but I love this fight to go the distance as I don't see either fighter getting finished.