UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night and picks for July 20th with the main event headlined by Amanda Lemos vs Birna Jandiroba in a women’s strawweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.
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Amanda Lemos vs Birna Jandiroba: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Muhammed Usman -155 vs Thomas Petersen +130
I don't know what we did to deserve this fight, but it's actually pretty bettable if you're willing to play the over, and watch two big slow guys throw low volume, and hug for 15 minutes.
Petersen came off of Contender Series and lost to Jamal Pogues in his UFC debut, which is a horrible look. He looked out of shape, and he didn't have much power on his strikes, and he got tired and beat up on the face.
Usman isn't any more exciting, as he's low volume on the feet, and he looks to take guys down and lay on them til the ref yells at him to keep working. Take this fight to go the distance as the best way to bet it as neither of these guys are finishers.
Lucie Pudilova -125 vs Luana Carolina +105
I'm not high on either of these fighter, but the edge goes to Pudilova as I think she's better on the feet, and her biggest weakness is her takedown defense and ground game, but I don't think Carolina can exploit it.
Pudilova got dominated in the first two rounds on the ground against Ailin Perez, but she had the better cardio in round three and won the last round against Perez so I don't see her getting tired, and that's a big deal.
Carolina has won two in a row, but they've been lackluster performances. I don't think she has much power, and I don't think she'll have the power/cardio advantage the later the fight goes.
I think Pudilova is the right side, and I think the fight goes the distance so Pudilova by decision might be a night play.
Loik Radzhabov -142 vs Trey Ogden +120
This will probably come down to the length and striking at range for Ogden vs the clinch, wrestling and ground game of Radzhabov, and I give the edge to Radzhabov.
I love his aggression and power, and I think he's going to be the type of opponent that Ogden hasn't faced before.
Ogden will try and use the jab to keep Radzhabov at distance, but Radz has a good gas tank as he showed in his last fight with his round three KO over Al-Selwady.
Ogden found a big hole in Hologaugh's game in his last fight and that was the takedown defense so Ogden got a few takedowns and laid on Holobaugh the whole fight, but there's no chance he can do that in this fight.
I just don't think Ogden's point fighting style will hold up, and I think Radz will have the more explosive moments which are important for the judges to see. This is a solid price on Radzhabov, I think it's worth a play.
Miranda Maverick -218 vs Dione Barbosa +180
I think Maverick is the right side here as her physicality in the wrestling and on the ground should be the difference.
When I look at her three UFC losses, she lost a split decision to Maycee Barber that is regarded as one of the worst decisions in UFC history, she lost to Blanchfield by decision, and she lost to Jasudavicius when she got poked in the eye and was seeing double for most of the fight.
Barbosa won her UFC debut, but there are definitely cracks in her ground game as she controlled Kareckaite for round one, but she couldn't hold her down the rest of the fight, and Kareckaite is a long, lanky kickboxer.
I see Barbosa with an advantage on the feet, but I don't think she can keep it there. I expect Maverick to get it to the ground, lock in the body triangle and get enough work in to get the decision win.
Cody Gibson -238 vs Brian Kelleher +195
I don't think Cody Gibson is very good, and he had some bad fight IQ moments against Miles Johns in his last fight, but Brian Kelleher is cooked as a UFC fighter.
This is clearly a loser leaves the UFC fight as Gibson is 0-2, and Kelleher is 0-3 in his last three fights, and Kelleher has been finished in all those fights, and his only recent wins are against guys who aren't in the UFC anymore.