UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for September 2 with Ciryl Gane vs Sergey Spivac headlining the event in a heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 3:00pm ET from Accor Arena in Paris, France.
WagerTalk also offers Free UFC Picks all year long!
Ciryl Gane vs Sergey Spivac: UFC Fight Night Main Event
UFC Fight Night Predictions
Jacqueline Cavalcanti -290 v Zarah Fairn +245
Cavalcanti steps in as Hailey Cowan was supposed to fight Zarah Fairn, but Cowan had an injury that forced her to pull out.
The UFC loves Cowan, but the problem is she isn't very good as she barely won in Contender Series, but Dana couldn't help but to give the attractive blonde a contract she absolutely didn't deserve.
She then lost her UFC debut to another fighter making her debut so the UFC needed to get Cowan a win immediately. Enter Zarah Fairn.
Fairn is really bad. She's a big striker, but her strikes have no power behind them, she doesn't know how to wrestle, and she has no upside and a low floor. She's lost all three UFC fights, and in all three fights she looked bad.
She's had trouble making weight, she's just one of the worst on the roster. So this was UFC's opportunity to get Fairn (she's from France) a fight in France, get Hailey Cowan a win, and get Fairn her fourth loss in a row so they can cut her.
Everything was going to plan and then Cowan got hurt. Cavalcanti steps in, and she should dominate Fairn. Cavalcanti is a striker, but is way more powerful than Fairn, and has a nice array of kicks and counterpunches.
She'll be able to walk Fairn down and land shots at will, and she won't have to worry about big counterstrikes coming back from Fairn. This line should move a lot towards Cavalcanti so if you're going to use her in a parlay, do it sooner rather than later.
Farid Basharat -245 v Kleydson Rodrigues +210
I like Basharat in this one, I just don't know if the -245 is a fair price. Basharat is a fantastic fighter who is good on the feet and he uses his strikes to set up takedowns where he doesn't do a ton of damage, but he holds opponents down, stays active, and wins the round.
His last fight was a unanimous decision win against Blackshear, and that win has aged well as Blackshear has looked good in his next two fights.
Rodrigues is a bit tough to handicap as he knocked out Shannon Ross early in his last fight, and he lost a close fight to CJ Vergara before that.
I like Basharat because he controls the pace, and has terrific movement on the feet that opens up his kicks and strikes which sets up the takedowns.
His game is a bit more controlled and mature than Rodrigues's so I like him to win. If you want to bet on Basharat, wait til props come out and take him to win by decision as he's not a finisher.
Morgan Charriere -291 v Manolo Zecchini
This is a real mismatch in my opinion as Charriere should roll in this one and it's my favorite parlay piece on the card. Zecchini is 11-3, but has been fighting really bad competition.
He has plenty of finishes on his resume, but just looking at his last two finishes, his opponents were very sloppy and left themselves wide open to strikes.
He did his job, but he's not buttoned up with his striking and overall offense, and his defense was exposed three fights ago when he lost to Sufiev who pressed Zecchini forward on the feet and then dominated with wrestling and grappling.
Charriere can do the exact same thing to Zecchini, and I expect that he will. Last fight for Charriere he showed great cardio as he finished his opponent late in round three, and I like him to get another win in this one.
Taylor Lapilus -180 v Muin Gafurov +155
I think we're getting a nice price on the underdog here and that's the best value in this fight. Lapilus has won five fights in a row, but it's not against great competition.
His last three fights are against experienced fighters, but he's been fighting Ares FC which I don't think is as good as who Gafurov has been fighting.
Gafurov is 3-3 in his last six, but he's lost to UFC caliber opponents including a loss to John Castaneda in his last fight where he fought really good, but got a point taken away.
He can strike and grapple and his cardio is pretty solid. Lapilus can finish fights with his strikes, but Gafurov can as well so I don't understand why Gafurov is this big of an underdog.
This should be a close fight that takes place on the feet, I'll take the underdog as I think the odds should be closer to even.
Ange Loosa -190 v Rhys Mckee +165
Interesting fight as Mckee lost two UFC fights, went to Cage Warriors and won three fights and made his return here against Loosa.
I believe this fight will mostly take place on the feet with both guys being able to find success with strikes and kicks, but Loosa has the advantage in takedowns and that's what will give him the win here I believe.
Loosa was able to get the takedowns against AJ Fletcher in the last fight, and Mckee leaves himself pretty open for the takedowns.
The price is fair on Loosa ML, the the real value is going to be in the overs. I don't see a finish in this fight as both guys are able to defend the strikes, and while Loosa should be able to get the takedowns, he's not a finisher on the ground.
Joselyne Edwards -140 v Nora Cornolle +110
I'm not real impressed with either fighter at this point, but Cornolle does not seem like she's UFC caliber. She won her last fight when she hit a front kick to the opponent's knee, and the opponent got injured, but other than that she didn't show much.
In her previous fight, she got taken down early in the first, but reversed the position and won by ground and pound, but the level of competition was pretty bad.
Edwards is a striker that wants this fight to take place on the feet, and I believe Cornolle will oblige, but I think Edwards will throw more volume and be more effective, especially in later rounds.
Cornolle hasn't been to the third round in her last six fights while Edwards has won her last three fights by decision. Edwards isn't a great UFC fighter, but she is still UFC caliber and I don't see Cornolle being better.
Volkan Oezdemir -152 v Bogdan Guskov +132
I can't believe this price isn't Oezdemir -300. Volkan is 1-3 in his last four fights, but his losses have been to Krylov, Ankalaev, and Prochazka.
These are UFC championship caliber fighters. Guskov has fought in some shady leagues against some guys that went down pretty easily after a couple of strikes.
His last five fights haven't gotten out of the first round, he doesn't appear to have any UFC-quality skills, and someone like Oezdemir should dominate him.
I would expect Oezdemir to test the ground game of Guskov as the takedown should be there, but even if it stays on the feet I like Volkan to win on the feet.