UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for September 23 with Rafael Fiziev vs Mateusz Gamrot headlining the event in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.
WagerTalk also offers Free UFC Picks all year long!
Rafael Fiziev vs Mateusz Gamrot: UFC Fight Night Main Event
UFC Fight Night Predictions
Montserrat Rendon +205 v Tamires Vidal -250
Tamires Vidal had a fantastic UFC debut when she knocked out Ramona Pascual with a body shot, and there's no doubting her power, but her cardio is a big question mark.
Coming into that fight, she really struggled with it, but now with a UFC win under her belt, her training has no doubt gone to the next level. She'll face Montserat Rendon who is making her UFC debut, and I'm not very high on Rendon.
She's fought lackluster competition, and has never finished an opponent, and her last three opponents have a combined record of 10-7 in lower promotions.
Redon has good length, and throws a good jab, but she doesn't have good strike defense as she got a bloody nose in her last fight.
Vidal will blast through that strike defense and get the win here, I would wait until props come out and play Vidal by KO.
Mizuki Inoue -250 v Hannah Goldy +205
Hannah Goldy is 1-3 in the UFC, and she has muscles and looks strong, but her cardio falls off a cliff, and her lone win in the UFC was in the first round against a bad fighter.
Mizuki Inoue makes her return after a three year absence due to a torn ACL, and we last saw her losing to Amanda Lemos by decision where she performed will on the feet, but just got overwhelmed by the striking of Lemos.
It's tough to predict how a fighter will look after a big layoff from a serious injury, but Goldy is just bad and I expect Inoue to start off tentative and then settle in as Goldy's cardio goes away.
Inoue's striking will wear her down over the three rounds, and unless Goldy gets a finish early in the fight, she won't have the weapons or energy to win the later rounds. This probably won't be an amazing fight to watch, but the pick is Inoue by decision.
Mohammed Usman -180 v Jake Collier +150
It doesn't get much worse than this fight to be honest. These are two low-level heavyweights and I don't expect to see a lot of action.
Usman is coming off a win against Junior Tafa where he clinched, took Tafa down and held on for dear life. He has decent power, but the stamina isn't there, and his opponent doesn't have a lot of weapons.
Jake Collier has lost three fights in a row, and he should be able to land some strikes on Usman, but other than that and trying to win the clinch game I think this is an uphill battle for him.
Usman is the pick, but there's no reason to bet on this fight as there is no value anywhere.
Jacob Malkoun -485 v Cody Brundage +370
Cody Brundage is coming off one of the most strange performances we've seen against Sedriques Dumas. He looked completely disinterested, and he almost looked like he kinda forgot what to do.
He's never had good cardio, and he's a wrestler, and this sets up nice for Malkoun. Malkoun has the big advantage on the feet as he has quicker striking, and he probably has the edge on the ground, especially if Brundage fights like he did last fight.
Brundage will need an early finish as his cardio vanishes after the first round, and Malkoun has really good cardio. This is a great parlay piece to take Malkoun on the ML who has won three out of four.
Tim Means +164 v Andre Fialho -198
Tim Means has been around for a while, and if he loses this one, it's probably his last UFC fight. He's lost three in a row, and he's 39 years old with 48 professional fights to his resume.
He lost to Alex Morono his last time out by guillotine, and he looked old and slow. Speaking of maybe having his last UFC fight, Andre Fialho has also lost three in a row as his chin and lack of striking defense has been exposed in his last three fights, but his striking is so much better and faster than Tim Means right now.
Fialho has the power advantage, but if there is a path to victory for Means, it's to clinch and tire out Fialho, which is possible as Fialho's cardio is a problem.
However, I'm not sure Means has much gas in the tank, and it should only be a matter of time before Fialho catches Means with head strikes and ends this fight.
If you want to wait until props come out, take the fight to not go the distance. Fialho is always a candidate to get knocked out by a random strike, and if Fialho wins it will probably be by finish.
Dan Argueta -185 v Miles Johns +154
Dan Argueta is a really good wrestler and grappler and he would've had a nice win against Ronnie Lawrence, but there was an early stoppage and Argueta did not get credited with the win, but make no mistake, he was dominating.
Before that he had a nice win against Nick Aguirre, after dropping his UFC debut to Damon Jackson. I like what I've seen from him as he can be a menace with the takedowns, and that will be the big difference in this fight.
I like Miles Johns, but his striking just doesn't appear to be scary enough to worry Argueta about shooting in. Johns doesn't have a high ceiling in any one part of his game, and Argueta's ceiling with grappling and takedowns is pretty high.
In his last fight, Johns won the fight against Vince Morales, but Johns was the one with the bloody face, and he was 1-10 in takedown attempts. Argueta's advantage on the ground will be the difference in this one.
Ricardo Ramos +115 v Charles Jourdain -135
I like Ricardo Ramos as the underdog in this one. Ramos is coming off a crazy KO win with a spinning elbow, and it's not the first time he has used the spinning attacks effectively.
I just like the movement and unique striking from Ramos as he's coming off a win against Chavez, and even though he lost to Tukhugov, it was an intense fight on the feet where he held his own.