UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for October 7 with Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green headlining the event in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.
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Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Montana De La Rosa +110 vs JJ Aldrick -130
This fight is a tough one to call, but the value is with Montana De La Rosa at plus money if you're looking for a side to bet. However, the best way to bet this fight is to take the fight to go the distance.
These two have finishes on their record, and both have been finished, but when these two match up against each other I think they're so evenly matched that I don't see a finish in this one.
De La Rosa was finished by Tatiana Suarez, but Suarez is a finisher, and De La Rosa finished Ariane Lipski, but the last three losses for Lipski were finishes.
JJ Aldrich finished Na Liang in her last fight, but Liang is terrible and always gets finished. I see the clinch and takedown games as equal here, and it looks like a fight that will go the scorecards for me.
Mateus Mendonca -258 vs Nate Maness +210
Mendonca was handed his first loss of his career in his UFC debut to Javid Basharat, no shame in that loss as Basharat is legit contender.
Mendonca fought well and showed his potential, and this is a step down in competition that should suit Mendonca well. Mendonca has good striking, but Basharat showed holes in his striking defense and his grappling and ground game that he will surely learn from.
It says a lot for Mendonca that Basharat complimented him in the post-fight interveiw as Basharat is very honest in rhoaw interviews.
Maness has dropped two straight fights, and hasn't looked good in those fights, especially the way he was dominated against Tagir Ulanbekov in a first round submission.
I don't like Maness's striking, but he does have good experience and a couple of good wins on his resume and while I think Mendonca gets the win, the odds are way too high for my liking. This fight is a pass for me for betting purposes.
Kanako Murata -325 vs Vanessa Demopoulos +260
Kanako Murata hasn't fought in a year and a half after breaking her arm in a fight against Jandiroba, but if she stays healthy in this fight she will wrestle her way to victory here.
Murata is a fantastic wrestler, and while Demopoulos is a great athlete, and a decent fighter, she won't be able to keep Murata off her.
Demopoulos will have to try and keep this on the feet and win a striking battle, but her striking isn't great and it's a bit wild and inconsistent.
Demopoulos prefers to wrestle and grapple, but unfortunately for her, she's fighting someone who's just better at the strongest parts of her game. Murata is a great parlay piece for this card.
Johnny Munoz Jr -115 vs Aoriqileng -105
I like Johnny Munoz in this fight. He showed the hole in his game in his last fight when Daniel Santos took him down and won by taking top control and holding it, but I don't think Aoriqileng can do that and on the feet I like Munoz.
Aoriqileng has two wins in the UFC, and both of them are long gone from the UFC, and we saw him get knocked out on the feet in his last fight.
He just doesn't have good striking defense, and the shot that knocked him out didn't look like the most powerful shot ever so I wonder if his chin is pretty suspect right now.
He throws a good leg kick, but doesn't protect himself from counters, and Munoz should have the speed advantage as well. I don't see much upside in Aoriqileng, I'll take Munoz in this one.
Chris Guiterrez +164 vs Montel Jackson -198
I thought Guiterrez really blew it in his last fight against Pedro Munhoz as he let Munhoz walk him down and control him with leg kicks and forward pressure. It was a bad performance, and I'm guessing he won't let that happen again.
Montel Jackson has a good record in the UFC, but has not faced great competition, and he has good striking, and he can initiate the clinch which makes this strange dynamic for his fights as they can go from exciting to boring and boring to exciting instantaneously.
I'll take a shot on the underdog here as Guiterrez didn't get beat because he lacked power or was clearly outclassed, he lost by not coming forward and letting the other fighter dictate the pace. Those are things he can fix and I think he will.
He's a live dog with good leg kicks that can soften up Jackson's forward movement, and I'll take him to win this one.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz -170 vs Diana Belbita +142
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has had a really nice resurgence as she lost five fights in a row, but then won three straight and I think she wins easily here agianst Diana Belbita. Kowalkiewicz will have the much better striking as it's more crisp, faster and more controlled.
I'm not impressed with anything that Belbita does as she's only beat bad competition, and she can be taken down and she can lose striking battles with anyone who has mediocre to good striking offense.
At 37 years old, Karolina still has gas left in the tank and I think she makes it four wins in a row here. Overs in the fight are a good play as well as I don't think Karolina will get the finish so maybe Karolina by decision is a good play, but at a reasonable -170 price, I'll just take the moneyline.
Bill Algeo -135 vs Alexander Hernandez +114
Really good matchmaking here, and the odds are spot on in my opinion. Bill Algeo is 3-1 in his last four, but the loss was when he injurred his shoulder in the third round against Andre Fili.
Alexander Hernandez is coming off a decision win against Jim Miller, but he had lost two in a row before that. Hernandez is fighting at featherweight now, and in both featherweight fights, he really absorbed a ton of damage on the feet while giving out plenty of his own, and Algeo is fairly similar in that style.