UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for December 2nd with Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan headlini ng the event in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the Moody Center, Austin, TX.
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Beneil Dariush vs Arman Tsarukyan: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Jamey-Lyn Horth -135 v Veronica Hardy
Both these women are coming off of wins, but both beat two women who I think aren't UFC caliber in Hailey Cowan and Juliana Miller, so I don't think Horth or Hardy are amazing fighters, and the easiest bet in this fight is to take it to go the distance.
Both are clinch and wrestle style fighters, and they are very even so I don't see where any threat of a finish comes from.
If Hardy couldn't finish Miller, she isn't finishing Horth, and Horth has a lot of finishes on her resume, but not to UFC caliber opponents. No opinion on who wins, but I will be taking this to go the distance.
Wellington Turman -205 v Jared Gooden +170
I'm not a big fan of Turman, but he should and better win this fight. Gooden is terrible, and I can't believe he's fighting in the UFC.
He holds his hands at his hips and only raises them to throw strikes that probably aren't going to land, and in his last fight Carlston Harris took him down several times and held him there.
That should be the path to victory for Turman here as his wrestling and takedowns will lead to long stretches of control time and damage on the ground which should get him the victory here.
This isn't a fight that features two great fighters, but Gooden is certainly worse than Turman, take Turman.
Rodolfo Bellato -425 v Ihor Potieria +330
Potieria has fought three times in the UFC, and beat Mauricio Rua in Rua's retirement fight when he was 40 years old, and then celebrated like a jackass in the ring.
He was rewarded by getting Carlos Ulberg as his next opponent, and Ulbert knocked him out in two minutes. Potieria has been knocked out in two out of his three UFC fights, and he has cardio issues that are going to be a big problem here.
Potieria has power, but only for a few minutes and Bellato is going to clinch and push Potieria against the fence and look for the takedown and if he weathers the early storm, his cardio will standup and Potieria will melt and get finished.
I hate laying -425 on Bellato so I would take under 2.5 rounds in this one. If Potiera is going to win, it will be by an early finish, and if he doesn't get the early finish Bellato will wear him down and win by KO or submission when Potieria has no energy left. Take the under.
Melquizael Costa -230 v Steve Garcia +190
This should be a really fun fight that takes place mostly on the feet, and while I think Costa squeaks out a close win, there's no way I'm laying -230 on him.
Garcia has won two fights in a row by KO, and has showed really great power in those wins so I'm not counting him out of this fight.
Costa certainly has the speed advantage on the feet, and his movement and kicks are going to be big weapons for him, but if Garcia closes the distance and gets Costa in the clinch, he can land big shots that will slow Costa down.
Garcia by KO could be an interesting prop because I don't think Garcia can win a decision, and Costa by decision could be another way to bet this fight if you believe in Costa, but from a betting perspective, I will sit this one out.
Drakkar Klose -130 v Joe Solecki +110
One of the funny things about Joe Solecki is that his last fight got cancelled so he ended up fighting Carl Deaton, and his opponent that cancelled earlier this year was Benoit Saint-Denis.
So he went from a sure-fire loss, probably by finish, and instead got to submit Carl Deaton for the win. Solecki is 5-1 in the UFC with his loss coming to Jared Gorden a couple of years ago.
Solecki looks to take fights to the ground or just get on the back of his opponents and look for submissions or just control the fight on the ground.
It's an interesting matchups as he faces Klose, and this will be Klose's third fight since the neck injury and while he looks back to his normal self, in his last fight against Rafa Garcia, Garcia was able to take him down and control him at times.
The ref stood them up once when Garcia was in top control for a long time, and that was a gift to Klose. His striking is better than Solecki's, but if this fight gets to the 2nd and 3rd rounds, Solecki's cardio and wrestling game will take over and he can absolutely tire out Klose to win those rounds.
Klose will need to stuff takedowns, and if he does, he'll win the striking battle and possible get the KO, but I think he's going to spend too much time and energy trying to stuff Solecki's offense. I think Solecki eventually gets the takedown and wears out Klose and goes on to win a close decision.
Zach Reese -238 v Cody Brundage +195
Zach Reese is coming off a very quick win on Contender Series, and that's how all of his fights have gone so far in his young career.
He's difficult to handicap because of all his early finishes and we haven't seen his cardio tested due to his early submission wins, but Brundage isn't one to test anyones cardio as he has basically none.
This is my personal opinion, but Brundage is an embarassment at this point. He put in no effort when he lost to Dumas, and in his last fight he was getting his brakes beaten off before the opponent grazed the back of his head and he put on an Oscar winning performance saying he couldn't continue, and he walked out of the octagon a winner when his opponent got disqualified.
He's a joke, and Reese should beat him as his submission game looks fantastic, and he certainly looks like the more motivated and professional fighter.
Brundage is a joke who has no cardio, and no offensive weapons outside of a random guillotine choke, no way I'm betting on him, but Reese will definitely be in a parlay for me.
Julia Avila -162 v Miesha Tate +136
The UFC certainly wants to give Miesha Tate a fight she can win. I had completely forgot about Julia Vila who hasn't fought in 2.5 years due to her having a baby and taking a long layoff, so right off the bat the long layoff worries me, but I still lean for her to win.
Tate is way past her prime, and has one win since 2016, and it was to Marion Reneau who had lost 5 in a row and then retired with a pro record of 9-8. Her last fight against Murphy, she looked so slow and had no power on her punches and I can't believe she's gotten better as she's now 37 years old.
The best thing to do with this fight is to not bet it because I have no clue what Avila will look like after a 2.5 year layoff, but I'm certainly not betting money on Miesha Tate, and while I don't see a finish in this fight, nothing would surprised me in this fight. Save your money and bet it elsewhere.
Joaquim Silva -310 v Clay Guida +250
UFC fan favorite Clay Guida loves to wrestle, take fights to the ground and grind out wins, but at age 41 I just don't know if he can still do that for three rounds.
He just lost to Rafa Garcia where the entire fight took place on the feet and Guida got pieced up en route to a loss. I don't know if he's going to try and stay on the feet with Silva, but I'm not impressed with Silva.