UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for May 18th with Edson Barboza and Lerone Murphy headlining the main event in a featherweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas,'NV.
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Edson Barboza vs Lerone Murphy: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Emily Ducote -310 v Vanessa Demopoulos +250
This line is baffling to me. Ducote is decent on the feet, but her striking defense isn't exactly elite, and she doesn't have a ground game so I don't know where the -310 comes from.
Demopoulos is coming off a win but make no mistake…she 100% lost that fight. The judges were insane in that fight. However, Demopoulos has cardio for days, and her ground game is way better than Ducote's.
If Demopoulos can get it to the ground, she's got a big advantage, and while Ducote should have the more powerful strikes, I think the activity of Demopoulos is going to look better in the later rounds. This is a great spot for an underdog to cash.
Kleydon Rodrigues -155 v Alatengheili +130
I'm surprised Rodrigues is the favorite here as he has big holes in his game. He's 1-2 in the UFC with his win being over Shannon Ross, who is terrible. He lost a close split decision against Vergara, and he did get beat up pretty bad on the feet.
He got dominated on the ground in his last fight and we didn't get to see him do anything offensively as Basharat controlled him from the beginning.
I don't see a lot of upside with him, but Alateng doesn't have a lot of upside either. He's low volume on the feet, and like Rodrigues he really hasn't beaten anyone impressive.
It's a pretty bad fight, but I'm not laying juice on Rodrigues. It's dog or pass in this one, but I do think this fight goes the distance as I don't see either guy having the ability to finish the other.
Piera Rodriguez -175 v Ariane Carnelossi +145
No chance I'm laying -175 on Rodriguez. Both women have problems with takedown defense, and they aren't great on the feet so it appears to be a pretty even fight for me.
‘Carnelossi always carries a lot of muscle, and it causes her cardio problems later in the fight, but she'll be stronger than Rodriguez, and that should help her in the clinch.
Rodriguez is probably more crisp in a standup fight, but I can see Carnelossi getting a takedown and winning a couple of close rounds. The price doesn't reflect how close this fight is going to be IMHO so I'll take Carnelossi at plus money.
Abus Magomedov -270 v Warlley Alves +220
Both these guys need a win as they've both dropped several fights in a row, and the best way to play this fight is to not go the distance or under 2.5 rounds.
I'm assuming it will be juicy so it's a parlay piece. Abus is a powerful striker, but only for a round or so, and then he gasses out quickly.
Alves is a striker who looked amazing four fights ago against Lazzez, but that fight looks to be the exception as he's dropped three straight, and two of them were knockout losses.
Alves striking defense has looked terrible, and combine that with Magomedov's cardio issues, I don't see how this gets to decision. If you're a live bettor, see if Alves can survive the first round, and as soon as Abus starts to get tired, fire away on Alves.
Melissa Gatto -410 v Tameries Vidal +320
Vidal disappointed in her last fight as she appeared to be very careful to not gas herself, but she ended up not throwing enough volume on her strikes, and not enough power either.
She's strong and tough, but not very crisp and technical. Gatto has lost two close fights, and she just doesn't seem to have the intensity or aggression, and it's cost her.
Her skillset is better than Vidal, there's no question, but is it enough to overcome her lack of activity? I think she'll pull out the decision win, but I'm not going to lay this price. Pass for me.
Oumar Sy -265 v Antonio Trocoli +215
There are too many unknowns in this fight to make a logical bet. Trocoli has fought one time since 2018, and it was in a basement against a bum.