UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for January 13th with Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker headlini ng the event in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX,'Las Vegas,'NV.
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Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Joshua Van -198 v Felipe Bunes +164
Bunes is making his UFC debut, and I'm not all that impressed with him. He has unique striking, but it's not always crisp, and he just doesn't look that strong or powerful.
He's a bit lanky and he finished his last fight by first round KO, but he's only 3-4 in his last 7 fights, and I think Van is just a bit better at this point.
My only pause here is that Bunes hasn't fought in a year, and I've seen some of these guys coming from other promotions have good performances when they have a big break from their last fight to their UFC debut.
I lean for this fight to not go the distance, but both of Van's UFC fights have gone the distance so there may just not be any value in betting this fight. It's a pass for me.
Tom Nolan -258 v Nikolas Motta +210
If you haven't seen Tom Nolan fight, you're in for a treat. He's powerful, explosive, wild and yet his cardio is good. He pushes forward and overwhelms his opponent, and I think he'll do that here to Motta.
Motta is coming off a brutal KO loss to Manuel Torres, and that's two losses in three UFC fights with his win being against Cameron VanCamp who is not a UFC fighter anymore.
You can wait til props come out and take Nolan ITD, but I'll play it safe and take this fight under 2.5 rounds. It might be a bit juicy, but it's a great parlay piece as Tom Nolan fights don't go very long.
Jean Silva -750 v Westin Wilson +525
There's not much you can do with this fight as -750 is insane, but at the same time I'm not betting on Westin Wilson.
I'll wait til props come out and see if under 2.5 rounds is a decent price, but if it's higher than -400 I'll pass. Silva went the distance on Contender Series, but he really beat up his opponent, and I don't know if Westin Wilson can survive the strikes.
Wilson will be taller, but that's the only thing the 34 year old will have going for him. He leaves his face wide open and Silva will take advantage. Silva by TKO, but I'm not sure there will be a decent enough price to make it worth a bet.
Farid Basharat -238 v Taylor Lapilous +195
Farid Basharat has looked great in his two UFC fights, and his performance against Kleydson Rodrigues was impressive as he dominated and got the first round choke.
Taylor Lapilus gets a second chance in the UFC as he beat Caolan Loughran in September after being cut seven years ago, and although he won, I wasn't really impressed.
He showed good takedown defense and good striking, but Basharat is a big step up in competition, and Basharat's technique is so clean and effective that he's really difficult to get in a groove against.
I think Basharat lands strikes to start the fight to set up the takedown where he'll win on the ground. Basharat is the play here, and a good parlay piece.
Marcus McGhee -278 v Gaston Bolanos +225
Bolanos won his UFC debut in his last fight as he came over from Bellator, and what got him the the win was having better cardio than his opponent.
Bolanos won the first round, but dropped the second round as his opponent was able to take him down twice and control the round, but Bolanos had more left in the tank for round three and got the victory despite being taken down once again.
Marcus McGhee has two finishes in his first two UFC fights, but this is a step up in competition, and I like the underdog here.
Bolanos's weakness is clearly his takedown defense, but I think Bolanos is going to be faster on the feet and faster in the striking, and I don't think McGhee will take him down and hold him there. This is a great spot to play the underdog, I'll be on Bolanos.
Matthew Semelsburger -130 v Preston Parsons +110
Parsons pushes forward and wants his opponent against the fence, and I think he can do that against Semelsberger, but if he hasn't improved his striking defense, Semelsberger will piece him up on the feet, and that's what this fight comes down to.
Parsons lost a razor close decision against Trevin Giles in his last fight and he fought great, but his lack of striking defense was the deciding factor as he absorbed way too much damage.
I think Giles is better than Semelsberger so maybe this is a step down, but I do think Parsons will probably be the fresher fighter in round three, and I think that's what makes me like the underdog here.
I think Semelsberger will have success on the feet for parts of the fight, and Parsons will have the advantage on clinch and takedowns, but in round three I think Semelsberger slows down too much and Parsons takes the round and the fight. Should be a fun match, but I think Parsons is the play here.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta -550 v Andrei Arlovski +310