UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for November 4th with Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis headlining the event in a heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from Ginasio Do Ibirapuera, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
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Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Kaue Fernandes +130 v Marc Diakiese -155
Betting on Marc Diakiese can be dangerous, but I like him a lot in this matchup. Fernandes has a good record coming out of Shooto Brasil, and he's 2-1 in LFA, but his two wins were quick knockouts, and his loss was a decision win where he won the first round by laying on his opponent, and his cardio fell off a cliff and he lost the next two rounds.
Diakiese has lost two in a row, but unless Fernandes has worked on his cardio big time I think Diakiese grinds out a decision win.
Fernandes likes to throw kicks, but again, his cardio goes away and he stops throwing them. Diakese should survive the early attack from Fernandes and win a fairly boring fight.
Eduarda Moura -395 v Montserrat Ruiz +310
Eduarda Moura is making her UFC debut and is a massive favorite for good reason. She is undefeated, and is a takedown specialist who knows how to finish on the ground, and Ruiz is coming off a loss where she got taken down and dominated until she was finished on the ground by Amorim.
Ruiz doesn't have great striking, and Moura won't be afraid to shoot since Ruiz won't be a threat to knock her out, and her takedown defense looked pretty bad last fight. Moura ML is a good parlay piece.
Angela Hill +110 v Denise Gomes -130
Denise Gomes is a fantastic striker, and at only 23 years old, she has a long career ahead of her in the UFC.
The question here, is can she handle a veteran like Angela Hill, and not get too excited and tire herself out going for the big highlight reel finish.
She just pulled a big upset in her KO of Jauregui only 20 seconds into the fight as she showed her upside in the striking department.
Hill is 38 and is moving towards her full time announcing career, but she just went the distance with Mackenzie Dern, and beat Emily Ducote and Lupita Godinez before that.
However, I believe in the upside that Gomes has and she just throws so hard and accurate that I think she gets the KO or does enough damage to slow down Hill. It's a pretty good price on a powerful fighter with knockout power.
Vitor Petrino -258 v Modestas Bukauskas +210
Modestas Bukauskas has beaten Tyson Pedro and Zac Pauga in his two fights since returning to the UFC, and he's used the same style in both fights where he keeps his distance, uses his jab and movement, and lets his opponents tire out.
Pedro and Pauga showed pretty bad cardio as both were pretty tired in the third round, and while Petrino doesn't have great cardio I think it's better than those two.
I also think Bukauskas was tired by round three in the Pauga fight so I'm not sure his style will work here. Petrino is 9-0, and looked better last fight when he submitted Prachnio (Prachnio has bad cardio as well) in the third round, and I like how he's progressed over the last couple years.
He was knocking guys out in round one on lower promotions, but his game is getting more well rounded and I think his power will set up his takedowns nice here.
Once on the ground, it's big advantage Petrino so I give him the nod here. I don't think I would lay this juice, and I don't know if this fight goes the distance so it will be a pass for me betting wise, but I do think Petrino gets the win.
Rinat Fakhretdinov -345 v Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos +275
I think the line is right as Fakhretkinov should win, and I think it's worth a parlay piece.
I'll start with Dos Santos who is in his late 30s and he doesn't fight much as he's fought twice in almost two years beating Benoit Saint-Denis and Abubakar Nurmagomedov, and althought the Nurmagomedov fight was a few months ago, I didn't think he looked amazing.
It was a split decision, and he didn't do much damage and he took strikes and lost several clinch battles. Fakhretdinov has looked great recently as he got the quick submission against Kevin Lee in his last fight, and before that he looked amazing against Bryan Battle as he showed striking and wrestling in his arsenal.
I believe he has too much for Dos Santos, and I think he wins a dominant decision here.
Victor Hugo v Daniel Marcos
Victor Hugo is coming off a win on Contender Series last month, and he's an entertaining fighter that is constantly looking for submissions, particularly with leg submissions, and when researching him for Contender Series, you'll find there isn't much film on him.
It was a great performance on Contender Series, but Daniel Marcos is undefeated, and I don't think Hugo has fought anyone as good as Marcos.
Marcos is a bit low volume on the feet, but his strikes are accurate and powerful and he stays out of harms way while landing his strikes.
Hugo's style is a bit wild, and he leaves himself open on the feet, and I don't see him overcoming the strikes that Marcos will put on him. Marcos by decision is my pick.
Elves Brener -145 v Esteban Ribovics +124
I believe Elves Brenner has the higher upside, and that's why he's favored, but this fight is probably a stay away.
Brener is coming off a stunning win against Guram Kutateladze where he was losing, and got a flash KO in round three, but give him credit for being tough and having the power to end it late.
I'm just not impressed with Ribovics at the UFC level, he doesn't seem to have KO power, doesn't have a great ground game, and his last fight was a pretty underwhelming win against Kamuela Kirk where neither guy showed much potential. I won't be betting on this fight