UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for November 18th with Brendan Allen and Paul Craig headlining th e event in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 5:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.
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Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Lucas Alexander -310 v Jeka Saragih +230
There aren't many fighters I could be lower on than Saragih. His last fight was against Jubli, and he was an embarrassment.
He came out making faces at Jubli, putting his hands behind his back, and just acting very unprofessional. Then he got taken down and beaten up for the rest of the fight until he was finished in the 2nd round.
Saragih hasn't faced the best competition on his road to the UFC and it looked like when he had a step up in competition, he was out of his league.
He has a lot of finishes on his resume, but none of them against fighters who are UFC caliber. I see no upside on him, and if he performs like that in this one he'll get finished again.
Lucas Alexander got finished in his UFC debut by Brito (no shame in that), but responded by beating Steven Peterson by decision in his next fight.
Alexander displayed good leg kicks and plenty of volume on the feet, and while he didn't get the finish he did do plenty of damage to Stevenson. Alexander should beat Saragih in this one, he's a fine parlay piece.
Charles Johnson -102 v Rafael Estevam -118
I'm not a Charles Johnson fan as I don't think he has good offense, and he's 2-3 in the UFC with his two wins being against bad opponents.
His striking is decent, volume on the feet is decent, but he keeps getting taken down in fights, and losing big chunks of the fight while on the ground, and Estevam is a guy who loves takedowns.
Estevam hasn't fought since last years Contenter Series where he won by taking his opponent down with ease and getting the round two ground and pound win.
I've faded Johnson the last two fights and cashed on both, and my only worry is that Johnson has good cardio so if Estevam doesn't finish and he tires himself out, Johnson will have energy in the third round.
I'll still take Estevam to win because of his takedown and ground control, but since I haven't seen him in a while I'll be passing on this fight. If you're a live bettor, and you see Estevam get tired in the second, Johnson is worth a look on a live bet.
Jose Johnson -205 v Chad Anheliger +170
Jose Johnson has shown bad takedown defense in his Contender Series fight and his UFC debut. He was able to win on Contender Series as his opponent did no damage on the ground, but Johnson was being controlled for a majority of the fight.
He makes his UFC debut and Blackshear controls him immediately, and wins by a rare twister submission.
Just not good performances from Johnson against his toughest opponents. The question is, can Chad Anheliger take advantage of that weakness? Absolutely not.
Heliger has 0 takedowns in his last three fights, and in fact he's been taken down 11 times in those fights so Johnson's biggest weakness is something Heliger can't exploit.
Heliger stands and strikes, but I think Johnson has the advantage there as Heliger's striking isn't amazing.
He got the KO of Jesse Strader two fights ago, but Strader lost two UFC fights and isn't in the UFC anymore, and the KO came in round 3 when Strader gasses and Heliger was behind on the scorecards going into that round.
His next fight he got pretty much dominated by Alateng, and I think Johnson can do the same here.
The price feels right so I'm not sure there's a ton of value, but I don't think Heliger is very good and Johnson should win the striking battle.
Jonathan Pearce -155 v Joanderson Brito +130
This will be a great test for Brito who has three first round finishes in his last three fights, but the last fight that went past the first round he lost by decision to Bill Algeo.
In that fight Brito had good control time in round one, but Algeo came on as the round went on, and Brito just didn't have much left in the gas tank and Algeo damaged him up en route to a solid win.
The recipe is the same here for Pearce. Survive the early onslaught from Brito, let him gas and win rounds two and three, and Pearce can absolutely do that.
He's won five fights in a row, and all of them have been in round two or later. He has good striking, he has a good ground game, I actually think this -155 is a solid price. Pearce has more weapons, he's well-rounded and he has the better cardio. Pearce is the pick in this one.
Mick Parkin -340 v Caio Machado +270
This heavyweight fight is going to feature two big guys who will be exhausted by the end of the first round if there isn't a finish.
Parkin won against Jamal Pogues in his UFC debut so you can make the case he's got a bit more experience than Machado, and Machado is coming off a decision win on Contender Series in a less than exciting fight.
Don't bet on this fight. These guys aren't very good, the price is insane, there's really not much else to this fight. Stay away.
Lucie Pudilova +112 v Ailin Perez -142
Lucie Padilova is coming off a split decision loss to Joselyn Edwards in one of the worst decision of the year as she clearly won the first two rounds. She got takedowns, controlled Edwards and did damage.
I thought it was a really good fight for her, and the judges took away a win from her. This is Pudilova's second stint in the UFC so she's faced really good competition, and has good takedowns, pretty good striking and good cardio.
She's also going to be the bigger fighter, and that's big because Perez likes to get into the clinch, wrestle and get it to the ground.
She's coming off a dominant win against Ashlee Evans-Smith, but Smith is terrible and probably done fighting in the UFC. I'm a big fan of Perez, but she got finished by Stephanie Egger, and not being able to finish Evans-Smith was bad.
This fight should have lots of action, and it will be fun to watch, but I think Pudilova will be too much over three rounds. I'll take the underdog here.
Nikolas Motta -142 v Trey Ogden +120
This is a tough fight to handicap. Motta knocked out Cameron VanCamp in round one two fights ago, but VanCamp is not a UFC caliber fighter and has been cut.
In the previous fight, Jim Miller melted Motta in the second round as Motta started off strong, and then got tired and knocked out. In Motta's last fight against Manuel Torres he took a vicious elbow to the chin early in round one and was knocked out instantly.
So I've seen Motta beat a really bad opponent, and then get knocked out by two good opponents. Trey Ogden doesn't impress me a ton as he was pieced apart on the feet against Bahamondes, however he did beat Daniel Zellhuber before that and he lost a close split decision to Jordan Leavitt before that.
I just don't see the power from Ogden, which is too bad because Motta's striking defense is terrible. Ogden has some submission finishes before he joined the UFC, maybe he gets back to trying to work submissions on Motta, but it appears Motta will have the early power advantage, and Ogden will have the cardio advantage.
This fight is a stay away, but the value is definitely in the plus money on Ogden as I don't trust Motta at all.
Chris Duncan -125 v Cesar Almeida +105
I really like Duncan in this fight as he's the better MMA fighter. Cesar Almeida is coming off an upset win on Contender Series against Lucas Fernando, but it wasn't a dominating performance.
Fernando looked like he just froze in the spotlight, and had a terrible performance as he couldn't get his takedowns and he absolutely gassed on the feet.
Almeida has a kickboxing background, but did show some good defense on the takedowns, but I didn't think Almeida's striking was all that impressivle.
Duncan is coming off a loss to Petrosyan where Petrosyan did what he normally does which is wear down his opponent on the feet and sneak out the last couple rounds.
Duncan has a unique striking style with crazy stances and attacks, and sometimes they're effective, and sometimes they make him look really bad.