The UFC heads to Las Vegas' T-Mobile Arena for an event capped by a flyweight championship rematch between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko, and we examine the matchup with our UFC best bets for Saturday's Noche UFC based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
Alexa Grasso will attempt to defend the women's flyweight crown six months after stunning Valentina Shevchenko with a submission victory at UFC 285. The upset triumph improved the reigning queen's UFC record to 8-3, and it marked her fifth straight win since moving up from strawweight in 2020.
As for Shevchenko, the ex-champ defended the divisional title seven times and won nine straight at 125 pounds before falling to Grasso in March, and she now heads to Vegas with a promotional record of 12-3.
In the event's co-headliner, Kevin Holland faces Jack Della Maddalena at welterweight. Th e 30-year-old Holland enters the matchup on a two-fight win streak, and he's won four of six bouts since moving down from middleweight. Holland most recently submitted Michael Chiesa in late July. Meanwhile, Della Maddalena has won five straight in the Octagon, 15 consecutive overall, and he last earned a split decision over Bassil Hafez just two months ago.
Here are our best bets for Saturday's Noche UFC (odds via DraftKings; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our UFC best bets.
Noche UFC best bets
- Fight line: Shevchenko ML vs. Grasso (-175 via DraftKings) ???
- Upset: Holland ML vs. Della Maddalena (+124 via DraftKings) ???
- Winning method: Godinez by decision vs. Reed (+110 via DraftKings) ???
- Prop bet: Holland vs. Della Maddalena Under 1.5 Rounds (+130 via DraftKings) ???
- Parlay: Kopylov by KO/TKO vs. Fremd (-125) + Godinez by decision vs. Reed (+110) + Holland vs. Della Maddalena Under 2.5 Rounds (-140) = +548 (via DraftKings) ???
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Noche UFC schedule and odds
Odds via DraftKings
Main Card (10 p.m. EST):
- Alexa Grasso (+145) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (-175)
- Kevin Holland (+124) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (-148)
- Raul Rosas Jr. (-750) vs. Terrence Mitchell (+525)
- Daniel Zellhuber (-290) vs. Christos Giagos (+235)
- Fernando Padilla (-250) vs. Kyle Nelson (+205)
Prelims (7 p.m. EST):
- Lupita Godinez (-425) vs. Elise Reed (+330)
- Roman Kopylov (-310) vs. Josh Fremd (+250)
- Edgar Chairez (-250) vs. Daniel Lacerda (+205)
- Tracy Cortez (-122) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+102)
- Alex Reyes (+350) vs. Charlie Campbell (-455)
- Josefine Knutsson (-600) vs. Marnic Mann (+440)
Top picks for Noche UFC
Only four modern UFC champions have successfully reclaimed their crowns in immediate rematches, but I expect Shevchenko to become the fifth at Grasso's expense.
Not to cheapen the defending champion's upset, but Shevchenko had outlanded (87 to 59) and outgrappled (four takedowns to zero with five-plus minutes of control time) Grasso up until that fateful backtake and submission. She likely would have claimed a decision had their matchup gone the distance.
Yes, Grasso's improvements as a flyweight are commendable. But Shevchenko remains the more versatile technician, and the veteran will lean more on her grappling and excellent top control this time ar ound to reclaim a strap she had defended seven times before falling to Grasso.
This week's upset pick wasn't made without some reluctance, as Della Maddalena is on a tear and he boasts sharp boxing and a solid wallop.
However, Holland's finishing instincts, submission game, and substantial edge in reach (81 inches to 73) are certainly worth respecting. Della Maddalena should act accordingly, as Hafez earned a good chunk of control time at his expense. The Aussie has made a career of keeping his foes on their back foot. But if Holland can keep him honest with an active jab and strike his way into a takedown or two, he could very well score the upset and maybe even capitalize on a scramble to secure a submission.
While Reed has been stopped in all three of her UFC losses, Godinez will likely need the full 15 minutes to beat her, as she's gone the distance in seven of eight UFC showings and 11 of 13 pr o fights, earning eight career victories through a decision.
A willing striker who lands 4.16 significant strikes per minute, stuffs 81% of takedown attempts, and converts 3.43 of her own per 15 minutes, Godinez can outduel Reed both standing up and on the mat. The latter eats more significant strikes than she lands (2.95 to 3.14 per minute) and defends only 50% of takedown attempts. Look for Godinez to have her way with Reed from the first bell to last, no matter where the fight goes.
Ever the pressure fighter, Della Maddalena has ended 13 of his 15 pro conquests inside the distance, with a dozen of his career stoppages coming in under 1.5 rounds, while Holland has earned 21 finishes in 25 pro wins and 14 in under a stanza-and-a-half. The former has a knack for overwhelming his dance partners with blistering combinations and merciless bodywork, and the latter packs a solid wallop of his own – boasting 14 career wins by KO/TKO – and know s how to snatch a neck when it presents itself. Whether Della Maddalena's rise or Holland's welterweight resurgence continues come fight night, these two should settle the score in short order – and violently.
In addition to our winning method pick and a variation of our prop bet, this week's parlay includes a KO/TKO victory for Roman Kopylov. He's won three straight and 10 overall via strikes, and Kopylov stuffs 90% of takedown attempts. He meets a man in Josh Fremd who will be all too desperate to get the action to the mat.
UFC best bets made 15/9/2023 at 12:04 a.m. ET.
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