UFC 307 Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 307 and picks for October 5th with the main event headlined by Alex Pereira vs Khalil Roundtree Jr. in a light heavyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City,'UT.
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Alex Pereira vs Khalil Roundtree Jr.: UFC 307 Main Event
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UFC 307 Predictions
Tim Means -205 vs Court McGee +160
This fight pretty much comes down to who has more left in the tank as both guys are 39+ years old, and on losing streaks.
Means is coming off a KO loss against Medic in April, and it's only his second KO loss in the UFC after all these years.
He's been submitted in the past, but I'm not sure McGee is submitting anyone at this stage, but the KO against Medic was a bad look as one uppercut floored him and he ate a big follow up shot after that, and you have to wonder if his chin is weak at this point.
McGee has lost three in a row, and after going his entire career without getting KO'd, he got knocked out in back to back fights against Wells and Brown.
This is an article about betting UFC, so my advice is to not bet this fight as neither guy has upside, and nothing would surprised me in this fight. Save your money and move on.
Tecia Pennington -175 vs Carla Esparza +145
This checks a couple of boxes for me as an automatic fade of Carla Esparza. This is a Fade The Baby Theory and Retirement Theory for her as she had her first kid a year ago, and she's coming back for one last fight as this will be her final fight.
It's interesting, because we faded Pennington in her last fight as she was coming back after having her first baby, and even though we cashed against Tabatha Ricci, Pennington looked great.
Her cardio was on point, striking was good, and in round three she didn't show signs of slowing down too much, and she landed over 100 strikes in the fight.
The last time we saw Esparza was two years ago when she lost the title to Zhang, and I know Zhang is an all-time great fighter, but Esparza couldn't get anything going on offense.
She had one moment in the first where she got on top of Zhang for a bit, but Zhang landed heavy shots, and reversed the position and continued to do heavy damage with her striking.
Esparza looked defeated after some striking exchanges, and was quickly finished in the second round. I can't see that Esparza is going to have a lot in the tank in this one, It's Pennington all day for me.
Ryan Spann -310 vs Ovince Saint Preux +250
I don't know what we did as UFC fans to deserve this fight, but please don't bet any of your money on it. OSP is 41 years old, and is coming off a shocking win against Kennedy Nzechukwu where Kennedy took him for granted, didn't put him away and ended up rightfully losing the fight by split decision.
Make no mistake, OSP looked old and terrible, but he did have enough gas in the tank to go three rounds. I have no idea what happened to Ryan Spann.
He beat Reyes late in 2022, and he told all of us that he was training and taking his fighting career serious, and now he's lost three in a row including losing a decision to old-man Anthony Smith, and then getting knocked out by Guskov who isn't that good.
That being said, he's more athletic, quicker and his strikes are more powerful. He's going to look really fast on the feet compared to OSP, and he should piece him up as OSP won't have much power to scare him. Spann should win, but there's no way you can lay -310 on Ryan Spann.
Cesar Almeida -380 vs Ihor Potieria +300
We've made a lot of money fading Potieria, and I think we can do it again here. Potieria's two wins in the UFC are against a retiring Rua, and a debutant from Russia who looked awful.
He's been finished in all four of his losses as his gas tank lasts for about a round, and then it vanishes. He has good power on the feet for the first few minutes, and then his KO power is gone, and he's ripe to get finished.
Almeida is a kickboxer who has impressed since his fight on Contender Series where he pulled the big upset, and he followed that up with a KO win in his debut, and split decision loss to Kopylov where he was dominated in round one, but really showed heart in skill to almost get the win.
All Almeida has to do is not get knocked out in the first round, and he should cruise to decision win or get the KO when Potieria gets tired.
Alexander Hernandez -215 vs Austin Hubbard +170
I'll take this fight to go the distance, I don't care who wins. Both guys have pretty big holes in their game, and I think that helps us as these guys aren't finishers.
Hubbard has eight fights in a row without finishing anyone, and Hernandez has gone five fights in a row without a finish.
Both guys don't have a lot of power, and with the new gloves, it's going to take a lot to get a KO, and these guys aren't submission specialists so I don't see where the finish comes from.
Hernandez absorbs a lot of damage in his fights, but his last two losses were decisions, and Hubbard has never been knocked out. Take the overs in this one.
Iasmin Lucindo -166 vs Marina Rodriguez +140
The 22 year old Lucindo is the future, and 37 year old Rodriguez is trying to stay at the top of heer game, but she's lost three out of four, and her win was against Waterson Gomez who has lost five in a row so she lost to the top fighters, and Lucindo is looking like a top fighter.
Lucindo's striking really good as she did a lot of damage to Kowalkiewicz, who is a pretty good fighter, but was completely outclassed in this matchup.
My only concern is that Rodriguez is by far the best fighter Lucindo has faced, and she is still in her early 20's and Rodriguez can take advantage of any mistakes that Lucindo makes.
She lost to Andrade in her last fight, but it was a split decision and she had some good moments on the feet, and she'll certainly land her fair share of shots, but I don't know if the damage will be there.
In the end, I'm a believer in Lucindo's talent, and her striking is so impressive right now, I think she'll damage up Rodriguez quite a bit on the feet, and unless Rodriguez somehow gets this on the ground, I don't see her having enough success to win. Lucindo is the play.
Joaquin Buckley -205 vs Stephen Thompson +170
Buckley has been on a tear since moving weight divisions, and if he can get his takedown game working in this fight, he should continue his streak, but that's easier said than done.
He had some nice takedowns en route to a win over Ruziboev in his last fight, but Thompson stands with that karate stance at distance, which makes it really hard to engage.