UFC 306 Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 306 and picks for September 14th with the main event headlined by Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili in a bantamweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Sphere in Las Vegas, NV.
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Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili: UFC 306 Main Event
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UFC 306 Predictions
Raul Rosas Jr -700 vs Aorqileng +500
This fight is kind of a joke, and will be in everyone's parlays for sure. It's a great way to get UFC Noche started with Rosas getting a win.
Rosas is young, athletic, and has a takedown and ground game that is already elite, and he'll use those weapons to take Aorqileng down and get the win on the ground.
Aorquileng is older, and while he has 3 wins in his last 5 fights, they're against awful competition. He likes the fight to stay on the feet, but Rosas won't keep it there for long.
Aoriqileng got taken down 4 times by Johnny Munoz, 3 times by Jay Perrin, and 5 times by Cody Durden so Rosas should waste no time getting this to the ground.
Rosas by submission is going to be a popular play, but I would keep it safe and just take his ML as a parlay piece.
Josh Van -218 vs Edgar Chairez +180
Chairez's last 3 fights have been pretty tough to get a read on him as he submitted Vazquez in Fury FC in a strange situation where the ref didn't realize that Vazquez was unconscious and thankfully it didn't result in serious injury.
Then he made his UFC debut against Taira where Taira took him down and controlled him for all 3 rounds, then he had the Daniel Lacerda fights where he dominated and finished him in round 1 with no problem.
So it's hard to really know what his style is going to be in this fight. I think he'll have the advantage on the ground as he has submission wins, but I don't know how his striking is going to look against Van.
I think Van is overrated, and I was proven right in his last fight as he got knocked out against Charles Johnson. I just don't see the upside as he struggled against Zhumagulov (not in the UFC anymore), he beat Borjas by decision (winless in the UFC), and he beat Bunes who is now 3-5 in his last 8.
I don't see his striking as that great, I think he gets tired the later the fight goes on, and I'm not laying this price on him. In fact, I like Chairez to get the win here at plus money as I'll keep fading Van.
Yazmin Jauregui -535 vs Ketlen Souza +400
This is a big gap in talent and upside. Jauregui is so much better with her movement and striking on the feet, and she should have no problem landing whatever she wants, kicks or punches.
She is coming off a great win against Sam Hughes, who is always a tough opponent where Souza barely beat Marnic Mann, and with all due respect…Mann is awful, and in the last round Mann was on top of Souza getting plenty of control time.
I really can't see anything that Souza does better than Juaregui, this appears to be another fight at Noche to get a Mexican fighter an easy win. I don't know if Juaregui gets the finish, but I wouldn't be surprised, I'll just use Jauregui ML as a parlay piece.
Ignacio Bahamondes -115 vs Manuel Torres -105
Get…ready…for…VIOLENCE. It's a Manuel Torres fight so we're taking the fight to not go the distance as his last 9 fights have ended in round 1.
Bahamondes is no stranger to big finishes as he KO'd Giagos with a nice head kick in his last fight so this fight should be a strikers delight, but don't rule out a submission as both guys have submission wins on their resume.
Bahamondes had a humbling loss 2 fights ago to Klein where he was bullied around, but he came out against Giagos with really nice aggression and pressure.
That being said, Manuel Torres is an animal, and I just can't bet against him. Torres is the pick, but the safest bet is playing an under of some kind as I don't see this getting to the judges.
Irene Aldana -130 vs Norma Dumont +110
This fight should come down to the striking on the feet for Aldana vs the takedowns and control time of Dumont, and I like Aldana to stifle the takedowns to get the win.