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It's a couple of days early, but the celebration of Mexico's Independence Day should be no less thrilling as “Suga” Sean O'Malley battles Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili for the bantamweight title at UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche.
Looking at the UFC 306 odds from our best sports betting sites, it's easy to see bangers throughout the fight card that should honor Noche UFC.
Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko square off in a women's flyweight title fight, as the duo square off for the third time. Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes are slated to meet again, after a UFC 303 bout between the duo was scrapped hours before the fight.
The main card will also feature six film clips between fights that UFC CEO Dana White stated would tell the history of combat fighting in Mexico.
UFC 306 odds – Main Card
Here's our breakdown of the UFC 306 odds and betting lines for Saturday's full card to help with your UFC picks (odds via our best UFC betting sites).
?? = best available odds | ?? = worst available odds
| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | -135 | -122 ?? | -133 | -130 | -138 ?? |
| Merab Dvalishvili | +114 ?? | -104 ?? | +110 | +110 | +110 |
Suga has already defended his title once in 2024, topping Marlon Vera with a unanimous decision at UFC 299 in March. That win was revenge for his only career defeat to Vera back in 2020.
Dvalishvili's win streak goes back even further, with his last defeat coming 11 fights back in 2018. The Machine hasn't contended for a title since his Ring of Combat days in 2017, and his best odds of +114 at DraftKings come with an implied win probability of 46.73% and would profit $11.40 on a $10 bet.
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| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | -122 ?? | -125 | -125 | -125 | -125 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | +102 | -102 ?? | +105 | +105 | +110 ?? |
Everyone loves a trilogy fight, although it's not a true rubber match. That's because the battle ended with a draw when these two clashed at Noche UFC last year. That was a contentious result, as one of the judges scored Grasso 10-8 in the final round.
Bullet is no stranger to title fights; she hasn't fought in a normal bout since 2018, and she'll be eager to earn her belt back from Grasso. The best line on the underdog can be found at bet365, where her +110 odds imply a 47.62% win chance and fetch an $11 potential profit on a $10 bet.
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| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | -180 | -180 | -192 ?? | -180 | -175 ?? |
| Brian Ortega | +150 | +140 ?? | +160 ?? | +155 | +150 |
Lopes has been a super busy fighter in the last two years, making his sixth walk to the Octagon while going 4-1 over the previous five fights with wins via KO/TKO (2), submission (1), and unanimous decision (1).
Ortega was slated to fight Lopes at UFC 303 in June. The fight was originally supposed to be featherweight, but was switched to lightweight as Ortega had cutting issues; the next day he pulled out due to illness.
His best line comes at BetMGM, but his +160 odds give him just a 38.46% implied chance to win. A $10 wager would profit $16 if he pulls it out.
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| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Zellhuber | -250 | -250 | -250 | -230 | -225 ?? |
| Esteban Ribovics | +205 ?? | +190 | +200 | +190 | +187 ?? |
Zellhuber and Ribovics are graduates of Dana White's Contender Series and relative newcomers to the UFC scene.
Zellhuber lost his first fight since making the leap but has rattled off three victories over Lando Vannata, Christos Giagos, and Francisco Prado.
Ribovics also dropped his first UFC fight, but then topped Kamuela Kirk and Terrance McKinney.
The Mexican Zellhuber is the biggest favorite on the main card, with his -225 line at bet365 implying a 69.23% win probability and profiting only $4.44 on a $10 bet.
| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo Rodriguez | -130 | -132 | -133 | -130 | -138 ?? |
| Ode Osbourne | +110 | +104 ?? | +110 | +110 | +110 |
On the note of newcomers to the UFC, this is just the second bout at this level for Rodriguez. “Lazy Boy” picked up a second-round submission victory over Denys Bondar back in February to start off his run on the right foot.
“The Jamaican Sensation” Osbourne has been around for a few years, but he's been having a rough go of late, dropping three of his last four fights. He's fallen to submission losses last August (Asu Almabayev) and in March (Jafel Filho), so he'll want to stay off the mat against the favorite.
Ronaldo's -130 line is shared by a couple of our best sports betting apps, and implies a 56.52% win probability with a profit of $7.69 on a winning $10 wager.
UFC 306 odds – Prelims
Odds via Caesars.
| Fight | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Irene Adlana vs. Norma Dumont | Adlana (-120) | Dumont (+100) |
| Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres | Torres (-115) | Bahamondes (-105) |
| Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza | Jauregui (-500) | Souza (+380) |
| Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van | OTB | OTB |
Chairez was originally slated to fight Kevin Borjas, but he was replaced by Van and we won't have a line on that one yet.
A women's strawweight fight between Jauregui and Souza is one of the largest lines of the night, with the Mexican Jauregui getting -500 odds at Caesars. That implies an 83.33% win chance but profits just $2 on a winning $10 wager.
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UFC 306 odds – Early prelims
Odds via FanDuel.
| Fight | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng | Rosas Jr. (-800) | Aoriqileng (+550) |
Only one fight dots the early prelim schedule a week out, so there is room for growth with last minute additions in the coming days – or for this fight to just join the prelim slate.
Rosas likes to get things done early, with three of his four fights since joining the UFC ending in the first or second round – all wins, two via submission and one via KO/TKO. The only fight that didn't go that path was a unanimous decision loss to Christian Rodriguez last April.
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UFC 306 info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 14
- Where: Sphere, Las Vegas
- How to watch: Prelims at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNEWS/ESPN+); Main Card at 10 p.m. ET (Pay-per-view)
How to read UFC betting odds
Understanding UFC betting odds is essential for making informed wagers. Let's break it down with examples:
- Positive odds (+): Positive odds indicate the potential profit on a $100 wager. For instance, if a fighter has odds of +250, it means that a $100 bet on that fighter would yield a profit of $250 if they win the fight. So, your total payout would be $350 ($250 profit + $100 original stake).
- Negative odds (-): Negative odds represent the amount you need to wager to win $100 in profit. For example, if a fighter has odds of -150, it means that you would need to bet $150 to win $100 in profit if that fighter wins. Your total payout would be $250 ($ 100 profit + $150 original stake).
Now, let's consider an actual UFC betting scenario:
- Fighter A: +200
- Fighter B: -180
For Fighter A (+200), a $100 bet would result in a $200 profit, making the total payout $300. For Fighter B (-180), you would need to wager $180 to win $100 in profit, resulting in a total payout of $280.
Understanding these odds helps you evaluate the potential payout and implied probability of each fighter winning a UFC fight. Positive odds indicate an underdog, while negative odds signify a favorite.
Here are our best UFC betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)