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Though it's a bit early to celebrate Mexico's Independence Day, UFC 306 Riyadh Season Noche will be electrifying. 'Suga' Sean O'Malley faces Merab 'The Machine' Dvalishvili for the bantamweight title on Saturday, and we will look at the UFC 306 odds for the whole card.
According to the odds from our best sports betting sites, the UFC 306 fight card is packed with thrilling matchups that will make Noche UFC a night to remember.
Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko co-headline the card in a trilogy fight for the women's flyweight title. Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes are set to meet after their UFC 303 fight was canceled just hours before it was scheduled to begin.
In addition to the action in the octagon, the main card will feature six film segments between fights, which UFC CEO Dana White says will chronicle the history of combat sports in Mexico.
Friday's weigh-ins were uneventful, as everyone looks set for Saturday's event at the Sphere in Las Vegas.
UFC 306 odds – Main Card
Here's our breakdown of the UFC 306 odds and betting lines for Saturday's full card to help with your UFC picks (odds via our best UFC betting sites).
?? = best available odds | ?? = worst available odds
| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | -125 ?? | -134 | -139 | -140 ?? | -138 |
| Merab Dvalishvili | +105 ?? | +110 | +115 | +118 ?? | +110 |
Suga has already defended his title once in 2024, topping Marlon Vera via unanimous decision at UFC 299 in March. That win was revenge for his only career defeat to Vera back in 2020.
Dvalishvili's win streak goes back even further, with his last defeat coming 11 fights back in 2018. The Machine hasn't contended for a title since his Ring of Combat days in 2017, but he's the underdog on Saturday.
O'Malley's best odds are -125 at DraftKings, implying a 55.56% win percentage. A win by O'Malley profits $8 on a $10 bet.
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| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | -142 ?? | -130 ?? | -139 | -140 | -138 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | +120 ?? | +106 ?? | +115 | +118 | +110 |
Everyone loves a trilogy fight, although it's not a true rubber match. That's because the battle ended with a draw when these two clashed at Noche UFC last year. That was a contentious result, as one of the judges scored Grasso 10-8 in the final round.
Bullet is no stranger to title fights; she hasn't fought in a normal bout since 2018, and she'll be eager to earn her belt back from Grasso.
The best line on the champ is the -130 being offered by FanDuel. Those odds imply a 56.52% win probability, and profits $7.69 on a $10 wager if she defends the strap.
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| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | -205 ?? | -180 | -200 | -190 | -175 ?? |
| Brian Ortega | +170 ?? | +146 ?? | +165 | +160 | +150 |
Lopes has been a super busy fighter in the last two years, making his sixth walk to the Octagon while going 4-1 over the previous five fights with wins via KO/TKO (2), submission (1), and unanimous decision (1).
Ortega was slated to fight Lopes at UFC 303 in June. The fight was originally supposed to be featherweight, but was switched to lightweight as Ortega had cutting issues; the next day he pulled out due to illness.
His best line comes at BetMGM, but his +170 odds give him just a 37.04% implied chance to win. A $10 wager would profit $17 if he wins.
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| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Zellhuber | -230 ?? | -225 | -227 | -225 | -225 |
| Esteban Ribovics | +190 ?? | +184 ?? | +185 | +185 | +187 |
Zellhuber and Ribovics are graduates of Dana White's Contender Series and relative newcomers to the UFC scene.
Zellhuber lost his first fight since making the leap but has rattled off three victories over Lando Vannata, Christos Giagos, and Francisco Prado.
The Mexican Zellhuber is the biggest favorite on the main card. His -225 line at bet365 implies a 69.23% win percentage, but profits only $4.44 on a winning $10 wager.
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| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo Rodriguez | -155 | -158 | -169 ?? | -150 | -138 ?? |
| Ode Osbourne | +130 | +128 | +140 ?? | +125 | +110 ?? |
On the note of newcomers to the UFC, this is just the second bout at this level for Rodriguez. “Lazy Boy” picked up a second-round submission victory over Denys Bondar back in February to start off his run on the right foot.
“The Jamaican Sensation” Osbourne has been around for a few years, but he's been having a rough go of late, dropping three of his last four fights. He's fallen to submission losses last August (Asu Almabayev) and in March (Jafel Filho), so he'll want to stay off the mat against the favorite.
You can get the underdog at +140 over at BetMGM. That line carries an implied 41.67% win probability with a profit of $14 on a winning $10 wager.
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UFC 306 odds – Prelims
Odds via Caesars.
| Fight | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Irene Adlana vs. Norma Dumont | Adlana (-115) | Dumont (-105) |
| Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres | Torres (-125) | Bahamondes (+105) |
| Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza | Jauregui (-550) | Souza (+400) |
| Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van | Van (-230) | Chairez (+190) |
A women's strawweight fight between Jauregui and Souza is one of the largest lines of the night, with the Mexican Jauregui getting -550 odds at Caesars. That implies an 84.62% win chance but profits just $1.82 on a winning $10 wager.
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UFC 306 odds – Early prelims
Odds via FanDuel.
| Fight | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng | Rosas Jr. (-1200) | Aoriqileng (+650) |
Only one fight is on the early prelim schedule.
Rosas likes to get things done early, with three of his four fights since joining the UFC ending in the first or second round – all wins, two via submission and one via KO/TKO. The only fight that didn't go that path was a unanimous decision loss to Christian Rodriguez last April.
He's the heaviest favorite on the card at -1200, and he's picked up steam in the last 48 hours. Those odds carry an implied 92.31% win probability but would profit only 83 cents on a winning $10 wager.
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UFC 306 info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 14
- Where: Sphere, Las Vegas
- How to watch: Prelims at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNEWS/ESPN+); Main Card at 10 p.m. ET (Pay-per-view)
How to read UFC betting odds
Understanding UFC betting odds is essential for making informed wagers. Let's break it down with examples:
- Positive odds (+): Positive odds indicate the potential profit on a $100 wager. For instance, if a fighter has odds of +250, it means that a $100 bet on that fighter would yield a profit of $250 if they win the fight. So, your total payout would be $350 ($250 profit + $100 original stake).
- Negative odds (-): Negative odds represent the amount you need to wager to win $100 in profit. For example, if a fighter has odds of -150, it means that you would need to bet $150 to win $100 in profit if that fighter wins. Your total payout would be $250 ($100 profi t + $150 original stake).
Now, let's consider an actual UFC betting scenario:
- Fighter A: +200
- Fighter B: -180
For Fighter A (+200), a $100 bet would result in a $200 profit, making the total payout $300. For Fighter B (-180), you would need to wager $180 to win $100 in profit, resulting in a total payout of $280.
Understanding these odds helps you evaluate the potential payout and implied probability of each fighter winning a UFC fight. Positive odds indicate an underdog, while negative odds signify a favorite.
Here are our best UFC betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)