UFC 303 Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 303 predictions and picks for June 29th with Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka headl ining the main event in a light heavyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV.
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Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka: UFC 303 Main Event
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UFC 303 Predictions
Ricky Simon -218 vs Vinicius de Oliviera +180
Oliviera has power for sure, but his fight IQ has a lot to be desired. He's gotten away with his pure strength and power to get him here, and he's coming off an insane KO against Benardo Sopaj at the end of the fight, but Ricky Simon is going to put him through hell with his takedowns and chain wrestling. Simon is coming off of 2 straight losses to Yadong Song and Mario Bautista, but Song is a contender and Bautista fought an amazing fight.
In both losses, Simon looked good, he was just up against better competition. Simon just needs to stay away from the big power shot, work his wrestling and I think Oliviera gets a much needed humbling in this fight.
Martin Buday -278 vs Andrei Arlovski +225
This might be it for Arlovski as he's 45 years old, and he's lost 3 straight fights to bad competition. He just doesn't have the power or the cardio to win fights anymore as he has a few minutes of cardio, and then it falls off a cliff and he just tries to not get finished.
When he throws punches or kicks now, they're in slow motion and they aren't doing damage so opponents aren't scared to walk forward on him. Buday is coming off a bad loss where he got destroyed on the feet against Gaziev, but before that he has won 4 straight UFC fights.
He isn't going to have to do much to win this fight, just use the jab on the feet, be patient, and stay active, and he should cruise to a win here. I don't see a path to victory for Arlovski outside of a random injury to Buday.
Gillian Robertson -198 vs Michelle Waterson Gomez +164
Gomez is 1-7 in his last 8 fights so it's going to be hard to make the case for her. She just has terrible striking defense, and although she pushes forward, she pushes forward into punches.
She doesn't have striking that will scare Robertson, and Robertson is coming off a nice ground and pound win against Polyana Viana.
Even though Robertson isn't a great striker, it should be good enough to piece up Gomez, and I expect Robertson to get this to the ground where her submission/ground and pound will be good enough to get the win.
Payton Talbott -1600 vs Yanis Ghemmouri +900
No writeup needed for this one. It's a layup for Talbott as he's better everywhere, and probably gets the finish. It's a showcase fight for Talbott as the UFC is very high on him and they are bringing him along slow.
Ghemmouri comes from BRAVE and got smoked in his UFC debut against Gomis who isn't as good as Talbott. Talbott ITD is the play.
Charles Jourdain -122 vs Jean Silva +102
It's hard to get behind Jean Silva in this one as I think he's talented, but I think he has a limited UFC ceiling. He went to decision against Kevin Vajellos on Contender Series, which doesn't impress me too much, and then he knocked out Westin Wilson in his UFC debut who has one of the glassiest chins in UFC history.
Silva has power, but I see Jourdain with the speed advantage, and I think his striking is a bit more complex and unique. Jourdain has lost to Woodson, Wood and Burgos in his last five fights, but all went to decision and all were very close.
Jourdain has three wins by submission in his last four wins so if it gets to the ground, he's live for a choke win. I'll lean Jourdain for the win, but it's not bettable for me as Jourdain just seems to come up a bit short in some of these close decisions.
Andre Fili -205 vs Cub Swandon +170
I'm not real high on either guy so this is a pass for me. Swanson is coming off a decision win that he even admitted he didn't win after the fight (outstruck 95-77 to Dawodu), and Fili is 3-6-1 in his last 10.
Swanson is 40, and his best days are behind him, and I really thought last fight was going to be his retirement fight as his family was in the audience, and he didn't seem that excited about the fight.