Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier headline Saturday's UFC 302 main event with the lightweight title at stake, and we're taking a look at the UFC 302 odds and betting lines from our best UFC betting sites.
Russian lightweight champion Islam Makhachev aims to defend his title against Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier at UFC 302 on Saturday. Makhachev claimed the title with a submission win over Charles Oliveira on Oct. 22, 2022, and defended it twice against Alexander Volkanovski in 2023, once in February and once in October. The battle will happen at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J., with the main card set to start at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
The co-main event is a five-round middleweight fight between former middleweight champion Sean Strickland and Brazil's Paulo Costa. That won't generate the type of hype that we'll see from our McGregor vs. Chandler odds, but it should be a down-and-out battle between the No. 1- and No. 7-ranked challengers in the division. A win by Strickland will position him well to earn another shot at the belt in the not-too-distant future.
Here's our breakdown of the UFC 302 odds and betting lines for Saturday's full card to help with your UFC picks (odds via our best sports betting sites).
UFC 302 odds – Main Card
Odds from bet365 last updated Monday at 11:15 a.m. ET.
| Fight | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier | Makhachev (-550) | Poirier (+400) |
| Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa | Strickland (-225) | Costa (+187) |
| Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk | Holland (-250) | Oleksiejczuk (+200) |
| Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov | Almeida (-275) | Romanov (+225) |
| Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Brown (-170) | Zaleski dos Santos (+140) |
Makhachev (-550) has absolutely ruled the lightweight division for years, and he's a heavy favorite to keep that up against the challenger, Poirier (+400). The Russian fighter has defended his strap twice already, but that's just a small look at the bigger picture – he's 25-1-0 in his pro career, including 14-1 at the UFC level, with his last loss coming back in 2015.
Poirier was once an interim lightweight champion who has been around the division for what feels like forever, compiling at 30-8 pro record. He's alternated wins and losses across his last five bouts, recording a second-round KO/TKO over Benoit Saint Denis in March.
The tightest-lined fight on the main card pits Jamaica's Brown against Brazil's Zaleski dos Santos. Brown has won six of his last seven bouts, including two straight, while Zaleski dos Santos is undefeated in his last three. However, the Bra zilian's last three fights date back to 2021 as he has missed bouts due to personal reasons and a suspension for a banned substance.
A $10 wager on the underdog, lined +140 at bet365, profits $14 on a winning wager and carries an implied win percentage of 41.67%.
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UFC 302 odds – Prelims
Odds from Caesars last updated Monday at 11:15 a.m. ET.
| Fight | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov vs. Cesar Almeida | Kopylov (-115) | Almeida (-105) |
| Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki | Dawson (-360) | Solecki (+280) |
| Jake Matthews vs. Phil Rowe | Matthews (-160) | Rowe (+135) |
| Alex Morono vs. Niko Price | Morono (-240) | Price (+200) |
Almeida and Kopylov square off in what should be an enticing prelim fight between fighters who are not shy about throwing hands and don't necessarily get the judges involved often. Almeida is undertaking just his sixth pro fight, and second at the UFC level, after starting his career 5-0. In April, he recorded a second-round KO/TKO against Dylan Budka, so Kopylov is a step up against a more seasoned veteran.
As for a fighter experiencing the opposite end of the spectrum than Almeida, we look no further than Price. The American welterweight has just one win on his resume since the calendar turned to 2020, and that came back in 2021 against Alex Oliveira. He's gone 1-4-0 with one no contest along that stretch and is priced as a +200 underdog against Morono.
A winning $10 wager on the underdog profits $20, but has just an implied win probability of 33.33%, according to our odds converter.
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UFC 302 odds – Early prelims
Odds from BetMGM last updated Monday at 11:15 a.m. ET.
| Fight | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Bassil Hafez vs. Mickey Gall | Hafez (-303) | Gall (+240) |
| Ailin Perez vs. Joselyne Edwards | Perez (-200) | Edwards (+165) |
| Andre Lima vs. Mitch Raposo | Lima (-208) | Raposo (+170) |
Raposo is primed to make his formal UFC debut, with a 9-1-0 pro record. However, his lone loss came in 2021 on Dana White's Contender Series, when he lost by submission to Jake Hadley. He's filling in on less than two weeks' notice for Nyamjargal Tumendemberel, but he does bring some pedigree as he's held straps for CES MMA and Cage Fighters.
Lima has an implied win probability of 67.53% to spoil his pro debut, although a $10 bet on the favorite pays just $14.81 for a sub-$5 profit.
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UFC 302 info
- When: Saturday, June 1
- Where: Prudential Center, Newark, N.J.
- How to watch: Early Prelims at 6:15 p.m. ET (ESPN+); Prelims at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2/ESPN+); Main Card at 10 p.m. ET (Pay-per-view)
How to read UFC betting odds
Understanding UFC betting odds is essential for making informed wagers. Let's break it down with examples:
- Positive odds (+): Positive odds indicate the potential profit on a $100 wager. For instance, if a fighter has odds of +250, it means that a $100 bet on that fighter would yield a profit of $250 if they win the fight. So, your total payout would be $350 ($250 profit + $100 original stake).
- Negative odds (-): Negative odds represent the amount you need to wager to win $100 in profit. For example, if a fighter has odds of -150, it means that you would need to bet $150 to win $100 in profit if that fi ghter wins. Your total payout would be $250 ($100 profit + $150 original stake).
Now, let's consider an actual UFC betting scenario:
- Fighter A: +200
- Fighter B: -180
For Fighter A (+200), a $100 bet would result in a $200 profit, making the total payout $300. For Fighter B (-180), you would need to wager $180 to win $100 in profit, resulting in a total payout of $280.
Understanding these odds helps you evaluate the potential payout and implied probability of each fighter winning a UFC fight. Positive odds indicate an underdog, while negative odds signify a favorite.
Here are our best UFC betting sites:
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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