UFC 302 Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 302 predictions and picks for June 1st with Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier hea dlining the main event in a lightweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
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Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier: UFC 302 Main Event
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UFC 302 Predictions
Andre Lima -205 vs Mitch Raposo +170
This feels like a gift to Lima after his last fight ended with his opponent biting him, and he handled it really well so as a reward they're giving him Mitch Raposo who flamed out on The Ultimate Fighter, and then lost to Jake Hadley on Contender Series.
He's been winning on the regional scene, but I haven't been real impressed as he's pretty limited and not well-rounded. He has good power, and that will be his advantage, but Lima will be faster, and his striking is more diverse.
He ate some big shots against Severino in his last, and it didn't seem to bother him so I think he'll deal with Raposo's power just fine. Lima is the pick, but it's not a confident one so I won't be betting it with my own money.
Ailin Perez -205 vs Joselyn Edwards +170
I like the underdog in this fight as Perez does her best work when she gets the fight to the ground, controls position and lands ground and pound.
It worked easily against Pudilova and Evans-Smith in her last two fights, but Edwards is strong, and can stuff takedowns, and if she does she will have the advantage on the feet.
We saw Perez get tired and beat up in Round 3 so there are paths to victory for Edwards, and at +170 I think it's worth a play.
Bassil Hafez -298 vs Mickey Gall +240
I didn't know Mickey Gall was still around, and I have no idea what we're going to get from him, but he hasn't looked good in his last two fights, and I don't know why he would look good here.
He's a submission specialist, but he's terrible on the feet, and I don't know if Hafez can exploit that. Hafez stepped in short notice and went to decision against Jack Maddalena, and he's known as a fighter who likes to take opponents down, wrestle and control.
He should have the power advantage over Gall, but I certainly won't be betting -300 on Hafez. Gall could pull off a submission if Hafez slips up so I won't bet on this fight.
Alex Morono -245 vs Niko Price +200
Alex Morono struggled mightily with Court McGee in his last fight, when it was McGee's retirement match so there's no way I lay this price.
Price's big weakness is his chin, but Morono doesn't seem to have the power to rock anybody, even if they do have a weak chin.
Neither of these guys have good cardio so I could see this fight going to the distance as I don't think Morono has the power to finish Price, and Morono has solid defense and was able to go the distance against Buckley. We'll get good odds since Price's fights go under quite often, but I think this could be the outlier.
Jake Matthews -162 vs Phil Rowe +136