UFC 301 Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 301 predictions and picks for May 4th with Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg head lining the main event in a flyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Farmasi Arena in'Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
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Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg: UFC 301 Main Event
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UFC 301 Predictions
Alessandro Costa -142 v Kevin Borjas +120
Borjas got schooled by Josh Van in his UFC debut as he was on his back foot most of the fight, and he had pretty bad defense to Van's body shots and overall striking.
His striking was ok, but he was on defense most of the fight and he couldn't get anything going. His striking was pretty vanilla, and it's not good when the best thing you can say about a fighter is they're tough.
Costa went the distance against Erceg in his last fight, which has aged really well, and he had his moments on the feet, and he had a takedown in round 2 with a bit of control time.
Borjas has a lot of improving to do with his defense, and I'm not sure it's going to be that much better in this fight. I'll pick Costa to win.
Ismael Bonfim -470 v Vinc Pichel +360
Ismael Bonfim loses to Benoit Saint-Denis so they drop him down to fight 42-year-old Vinc Pichel?
Quite the stop down and I'll take Bonfim to get back to his winning ways as he'll be way more athletic, and faster on the feet, and based on what Pichel showed in his last fight which was over a year ago, Bonfim will have the better cardio.
I don't see what the path to victory is for Pichel as his striking and wrestling looked below average, and to be blunt…he's 42 years old, and probably is not ready to compete with Bonfim. Bonfim is a great parlay piece.
Dione Barbosa -218 v Ernesta Kareckaite +180
Kareckaite surprised everyone on Contender Series as she had been low volume and low pressure in previous fights, but her and Carli Judice put on an insane fight with hundreds of punches landed.
She got the win, but this fight won't be on the feet the entire time if Barbosa has her way. Barbosa works takedowns, and will certainly not want to stand and bang with Kareckaite so if she gets takedowns and can hold Kareckaite down, she will roll to a victory.
I'm not convinced she can do that for all 3 rounds, and Kareckaite's striking will look way better to judges if the round is close. This is a clear dog or pass fight as Kareckaite can wear down Barbosa on the feet if she can stuff takedowns.
Mauricio Ruffy -166 v Jamie Mullarkey +140
Fading Contender Series fighters from last season has been very profitable, as they have really looked in over their heads in the UFC so I'd love to fade Ruffy here, but I can't bet on Jamie Mullarkey.
He's been knocked out in 2 out of his last 3 fights, and he is on the verge of being done. Mullarkey doesn't have power anymore, and Ruffy wasn't impressive on Contender Series as he was lucky to get the win due to his opponent gassing out in the third round.
This is a terrible fight that will look like it belongs on a regional promotion, don't bet it.
Drakkar Klose -185 v Joaquim Silva +154
Hard to know what we're getting from Klose in this fight. He's 3-0 since the crazy concussion injury, and he didn't look amazing in his first fight back, but he looked better in his second, and in his last fight he slammed the wrestler Joe Solecki unconscious less than 2 minutes into the fight so we didn't get to see how he looked deep into the fight.
Silva is a grinder who can finish lesser-quality opponents, but his last 3 losses have all been by KO so his chin isn't great. If Klose is back to his normal self, I think he should win, and he certainly has the power to KO Silva so he'll be the pick, but it's not a very confident pick so I won't bet it.
Jean Silva -142 v William Gomis +120
I'll make this quick as I won't be betting this fight. Neither guy has impressed me as of now, Gomis is 3-0, but his wins were either not that impressive or against terrible fighters.
He keeps the distance on the feet and uses his kicks to keep opponents away, and Silva is aggressive and will try to get through the length to close the distance to do damage inside.
I don't have a strong opinion on who will have the upper hand, and this fight doesn't interest me so I won't be betting it.
Myktybek Orolbai -280 v Elves Brener +210
This should be a fun fight as both guys are finishers, but I think Brener has more power on the feet, but Orolbai has plenty of KO finishes including the brutal one against Hayward Charles two fights ago (go look that one up).
Orolbai showed his takedown and submission skills against Medic in his UFC debut, but that fight was very short notice and Medic was training for a pure striker, and Orolbai took advantage.