UFC 292 Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 292 predictions and picks for August 19 with Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O’Malley headlining the event in a bantamweight title match. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from TD Garden in Boston, MA.
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Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O’Malley: UFC 292 Main Event
UFC 292 Predictions
Kurt Holobaugh vs Austin Hubbard
There aren't any odds out yet at the time I am writing this, but Kurt should win. Hubbard was very unimpressive on TUF, and Hologaugh laid it all out on the line with an incredible fight against Jason Knight where he should have incredible striking and toughness.
Hubbard doesn't have an upside from what I've seen and Holobaugh's aggression looks to be at a different level. I like Holobaugh to win, and I would not be surprised if he got the finish.
Natalia Silva -345 vs Andrea Lee +275
The odds are way out of whack in this fight, and I'll take Andrea Lee to win this fight. Silva is going to be a little big shorter, and Lee will have the reach advantage, and there's no doubt that Silva has looked great in the UFC going 3-0, but the competition has been lackluster at best.
She won by decision against Jasudavicius, and then knocked out Bleda and Leonardo who are nowhere near the caliber of Andrea Lee.
Andrea Lee has lost two in a row, but to Viviane Araujo, and then an amazing fight against Maycee Barber where she lost by split decision, but I thought she won. She was able to take Barber down several times, and if she can take Barber down, she can take Silva down.
Silva is lightning fast and a great striker, but this is a massive step up in competition and against Tereza Bleda (a grappler with no cardio), Silva lost the first round and got the KO when Bleda tired, but Bleda had success with takedowns early. Lee won't have cardio issues, and at this price Lee is absolutely worth a sprinkle.
Karine Silva -170 v Maryna Moroz +142
Don't blink in a Karine Silva fight as she has won six in a row, all by finish, and five of those in the first round. It's tough to predict how she will do as the fight moves into later rounds because we just haven't seen her cardio tested.
Moroz has not been that active as she only has two fights in a year and a half, and she lost her last fight to Jennifer Maia in a pretty lackluster fight.
She's a striker, but she's not very creative and doesn't seem to have much power, and her win against Agapova is a bit misleading at Agapova was fighting very hurt. If Moroz wins, it will probably be by decision, but I think Silva gets another finish.
She shoots with aggression to get opponents on the ground, and when she gets them down she gets arm bars or chokes. We don't need to pay -170 on Silva, we'll just wait and take her to win inside the distance.
Gregory Rodrigues -355 v Denis Tiuliulin +280
Rodrigues is coming off one of the more confusing losses I've seen in a while, and we have to decide if it was a lucky shot, or if his chin is that vulnerable now.
He was in an insane war against Chidi Njokuani where Rodrigues was seconds away from being finished, but he made an insane comback for the KO win.
In his next fight he fought Brunno Ferreira, and was winning the first round, but then got knocked out by a counter left that did not look that powerful.
Maybe it was a one-of-a-kind shot, maybe it showed that Rodrigues took long-lasting damage in the Chidi fight, and that's what we have to decide. Tiuliulin is not good, and his only win in the UFC is against Jamie Pickett who is terrible.
He was finished in his other two UFC fights, and if Rodrigues is fully recovered, this fight shouldn't last long. I like unders in this fight as Rodrigues can easily finish Tiuliulin, and if Rodrigues's chin is done maybe another strike knocks him out.
Brad Tavares -265 v Chris Weidman +215
I'm not excited to bet on Brad Tavares, but I definitely won't be betting on Chris Weidman. Weidman is 2-6 in the UFC going back to 2015, and in his last fight he broke his leg early in the fight.
He's almost 40 years old, and that highlight that we see of him knocking out Anderson Silva is now over 10 years old.
Tavares is the only way to bet this fight, but -265 is too steep of a price. This fight is a stay away from a betting perspective as I can find no value here.
Andre Petroski -278 v Gerald Meerschaert +225
Tough fight to bet on as Meerschaert is submission or bust and Petroski likes to use his strikes to set up the wrestling and takedowns.
If he goes for takedowns, I'm not sure Meerschaert will be too upset about that. However, I do believe Petroski has the striking advantage as his striking looked improved against Wellington Turman in his last fight, but I don't think he has the cardio to be on the feet for three rounds.
Meerschaert looked great two fights ago in a submission win against Bruno Silva, but he got knocked out quickly by Joe Pyfer in his last fight.
Petroski doesn't have that kind of striking, making this fight tough to handicap. I can't bet Petroski because Meerschaert can always pull off a submission out of nowhere, but I'm not confident enough to be on either fighter.