UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 291 predictions and picks for July 29 with Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje headlining the event. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from O2 Salt Lake City, Utah.
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Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje: UFC 291 Main Event
UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions
Matthew Semelsberger -165 v Uros Medic +140
I don't see a lot of upside in any of these fighters as they both do a couple things well, and more than a couple things wrong. Semelsberger has a ceiling of the caliber of fighter he can beat, as his striking is ok, but his striking and take downs defense isn't great. His last three wins aren't against great opponents, and he's lost to Jeremiah Wells and Alex Morono, two steps up in competition.
Medic has one loss. And that's to Jalin Turner, but his UFC wins are over Aaron Cruz and Omar Morales, not great competition. His striking is decent, but I won't be picking a winner in this fight. This will be in a To Start Round Two parlay as these two are pretty evenly matched and I don't see an early finish.
Miranda Maverick -325 v Priscila Cachoeira +270
Cachoeira will want this to be a stand up striking battle at distance while Maverick will want to clinch, dirty box and take it to the ground. The odds suggest she'll be able to do that, and when we look at here UFC career she's beaten the fighters she should beat, and lost to the ones she should lose to, but the odds are just crazy.
She was a huge favorite over Jasudavicius last fight and she got dominated. I like the grappling edge Miranda has over Cachoeira, but there's no way I'm laying this juice on Maverick, not even in parlays. I might be tempted to take an over on this fight, but even then it's a bit risky. Betting wise, this fight is a pass for me.
Jake Matthews -185 v Darrius Flowers +150
Tough fight to handicap as Darrius Flowers fights don't last very long. He hasn't fought good competition, and he tends to end fights quick, but I'm not sure if he ends fights quick because he's so good or because his opponents are so bad.
He's very strong, has knockout power and can wrestle, and in his Contender Series fight he won when his opponent had a shoulder injury so we didn't get to see a proper fight to make a read on him. He's fighting Jake Matthews who finally showed off striking against Andre Fialho, but then lost his next fight against Semelsberger.
His striking has been his weak spot, and the Knockout against Fialho doesn't look as great now as Fialho keeps getting knocked out. I would expect some wrestling and grappling from Matthews here which should give us a good indication if Flowers is UFC ready, but there are too many unknowns in this fight to bet anything on.
CJ Vergara -170 v Vinicius Salvador +150
Not a great fight here, but there's no way I'm betting on Vinicius Salvador. He got the win over Shannon Ross on Contender Series which doesn't look like a great win now, and in his UFC debut he fought ultra sloppy and with very little fight IQ.
Vergara is a decent fighter who is 2-2 in the UFC with his losses being to great competition, and his wins against not great competition. I actually think Salvador has the tools on the feet to piece up Vergara pretty good, but on the ground Salvador struggles. I don't have a strong opinion on this fight, but I would take this to start round two as all of Vergara's UFC fights have started round two, and Salvador's lone UFC fight went the distance. .
Roman Kopylov -250 v Claudio Ribeiro +210
Ribeiro has a lot of weaknesses in his game and Kopylov will exploit them. The biggest weakness is Ribeiro's cardio, and Kopylov will have no problem making him tired. Roman moves around a ton on the feet, has a really nice jab, and then keeps moving around.
Roman is hard to hit and Ribeiro isn't the most nimble guy. He's a big guy who is looking for the big KO, but if he doesn't get it he's in trouble. Abdul Razor Alhassan wore him down and KO'd him in the second round, and although Ribeiro won against Joseph Holmes, Holmes is terrible and Claudio was gassed.
Kopylov will jab and move and do damage on the feet, and it wouldn't surprise me if he got finish like he has in his last two fights. His last opponent, Punahele Soriano, reminds me of Ribeiro as both are strong and powerful, but lack cardio and movement. Kopylov won easily against Soriano, I think he wins again.
Gabriel Bonfim -315 v Trevin Giles +260n
I'm really high on Gabriel Bonfim, and he hasn't disappointed his fans and backers. He's 14-0 and can finish opponents any way he wants whether it's striking or submissions, but submissions seem to be his specialty. His boxing and hand speed is so much faster than Giles so he'll have the striking advantage, and I'm not impressed with Giles on the ground.
Pogues isn't the most exciting fighter in the world, but he's really tough and has a good gas tank. He won his UFC debut against Josh Parisian in a fairly boring fight, but I've seen plenty of fighters making their UFC debut get too excited and gas out early so I thought his game plan was solid and played it smart.
He almost got submitted by Preston Parsons in his last fight, and barely squeaked out a split decision win, and before that beat Louis Cosce who has lost both his UFC fights, and then another one in Urija Faber's A1 Combat.
So Giles has struggled with bad competition, and Bonfim is great. Bonfim wrapped up a submission less than one minute into his UFC debut, and while I don't think he gets another finish that quick, I do think he's better everywhere and should roll here. e.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima -175 v Derrick Lewis +150
If you believe that Derrick Lewis is done, then taking de Lima is a steal. Lewis has shown pretty much nothing encouraging recently as he's 1-4 in his last five with his win being over Chris Daukaus. Spivak was able to take Lewis down and submit him in round one, and Lima might have a similar plan to push him forward against the fence and try and get him down.
De Lima fights are boring, and if Lewis doesn't get the KO early, he'll probably get tired and put up no fight after the first round.