Let’s take a look at our best bets for Saturday’s loaded UFC 279 card.
- Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz
- Ion Cutelaba vs. Johnny Walker
- Irene Aldana vs. Macy Chiasson
- Li Jingliang vs. Tony Ferguson
- Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz
With the average total rounds between these two sitting at 1.7, this number appears about right on the surface. But these aren’t your average (or even median) fighters stepping into the octagon late on Saturday.
For one, Diaz has less than zero to lose with this one, and I expect we see him respond accordingly in an aggressive game plan right from the start. For Chimaev, anything less than an early finish will put his increasing legend into question.
Look for this one to end very early.
Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-125'via DraftKings)
Ion Cutelaba vs. Johnny Walker
Be prepared for a potentially boring fight. Could there be fireworks? Of course, especially considering the power both these guys possess in the light heavyweight division.
That being said, I expect a repeat of the Krylov/Walker fight. Cutelaba should have no problem getting Walker to the mat, and once there, he could just control him and try to rack up points for 15 straight minutes.
Both these guys need a win, so Cutelaba absolutely does not care whether he gets it done in spectacular fashion or if he just controls Walker without executing much damage.
Prediction: Ion Cutelaba to Win via Unanimous Decision
Best Bet: Ion Cutelaba to Win via Decision (+500)
Irene Aldana vs. Macy Chiasson
This women's bantamweight bout is shaping up to be a classic striker vs. wrestler contest. Can Chiasson break through Aldana's 84% takedown defense? And if she does, can she coast her way to victory off of ground control and what will likely be another deficit in the striking department? In my opinion, I don't see that happening. Aldana looked very sharp last time she was in the cage and put on an impressive display of power against the former fifth-ranked Kunitskaya. She left her bloody and dazed, which is pretty rare to come across in women's fights nowadays.'
Ultimately, Aldana's takedown defense is enough to neutralize Chiasson, and if these two are vertical for 15 minutes, we're going to see a clear advantage for the higher-ranked Aldana. She's fast, powerful, and has her eyes set on a run at the bantamweight strap. Let's roll with the favorite in this main card contest.'
Pick: Irene Aldana Moneyline (-152 via FanDuel)
Li Jingliang vs. Tony Ferguson
With this fight likely to be “stand and bang”, we should not expect to see the final bell. Oddsmakers concur with this sentiment with the “fight does not go to decision” prop listed at -175.