UFC 278: Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold Picks and Predictions
UFC 278: Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold Picks and Predictions

Paulo Costa and Luke Rockhold face off on Saturday in the co-main event for the middleweight bout at UFC 278 at Vivant Arena in Salt Lake City. Costa is ranked 6th in the division while Rockhold is unranked. 

Paulo “The Eraser” Costa comes into this fight with a 13-2 record overall but he is struggling heading into this fight. After winning his first 13 fights he has hit a rough patch and lost two in a row. Two fights ago against Israel Adesanya he was outstruck 55-12 and in the second round he was knocked out. In the last fight against Marvin Vettori in October of 2021 and he lost that fight by unanimous decision. He was outstruck 190-163. Costa is averaging 6.85 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.02 significant strikes per minute. Costa is averaging 0.21 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 50 percent of his takedown attempts. He is stopping 80 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. 

On the other side of this matchup is Luke Rockhold who sits with a 16-5 record overall and he has lost three of his last four fights. Rockhold’s last fight came against Jan Blachowicz and he really struggled. He was being outstruck 30-14 and early in the second round he was finished by knockout. Rockhold’s last win came by knockout in February of 2018 over David Branch. It’s been a long layoff for Rockhold who last fought in 2019. Rockhold is averaging 4.18 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.43 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.67 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 30 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 68 percent of his takedown attempts. He also is averaging 1.1 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

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