If you overlooked UConn in your March Madness bracket, now might be a good time to start paying attention to one of the most substantial remaining forces in the NCAA Tournament. Read on for our UConn vs. Gonzaga prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
The newly-minted KenPom No. 1 team in the country has waded through the West region of the March Madness bracket as a No. 4 seed. Now UConn (28-8) has only No. 3-seed Gonzaga standing in its way on its path to the Final Four.
After three straight defensive masterclass efforts to open the tournament, can the Huskies stifle the Bulldogs' potent offense in Saturday's Elite Eight bout?
Here is our best UConn vs. Gonzaga prediction (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UConn vs. Gonzaga odds
UConn vs. Gonzaga prediction
Was UConn the most under-seeded team in the entire NCAA Tournament field? Even before the Huskies jumped to the top spot in the nation in the KenPom rankings Friday night, there was certainly a case to be made.
Connecticut has dominated the competition on its run through the NCAA Tournament, thrashing Iona, Saint Mary's, and Arkansas by a combined 62 points, covering each spread with relative ease. The Huskies have adapted to the style of their opponents-and in each case have simply been better at it.
They posted 80-plus points while holding the up-tempo stylings of Iona and Arkansas into the 60s, but they were happy to grind it out against SMC, still cracking 70 with an efficient offense while leaving the Gaels in the mid-50s. Gonzaga's style is the former, as the combo of its top-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency and Top 75 adjusted tempo has produced scoring outputs of 79 or more points in each tournament game to date.
Entering Gonzaga's game against UCLA, I thought the Bruins would find an edge if they could limit-not stop, necessarily, but merely contain to some extent-the talented Drew Timme. Well, the big man erupted for 36 points. But led by Adama Sanogo, UConn has the size to challenge Timme in ways that UCLA failed to conceive. Add that factor to their depth and supreme guard play and I like the Huskies to continue their March dominance.
UConn vs. Gonzaga best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn -2 | UConn -2.5 | UConn -2.5 | UConn -2 | UConn -2 |
| -110 | -105 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
We gave some consideration to settling for -135 odds on the UConn moneyline before committing to the Huskies on the spread once the line dropped to -2 in several spots. Although FanDuel and BetMGM offer more favorable odds than their counterparts at -105, we're looking to avoid that hook to -2.5.
That leaves DraftKings, Caesars, and PointsBet as our preferred betting locations for a spread wager on UConn. All three offer the Huskies at -2 with standard -110 odds. If the board moves back to -2.5, this play would reduce to three stars. Should Gonzaga pick up steam, though, we'd like to snag the UConn moneyline at -120 or better.
UConn vs. Gonzaga odds analysis
UConn opened as a 2.5-point favorite and remains there in some spots while having shifted to -2 in others. A slight majority of bettors are backing UConn with 5 5% of the betting action on the Huskies to cover their side of the spread.
The total opened at 153.5 and has remained there as of Saturday morning across our best sportsbooks despite a whopping 72% of wagers being placed on the Over.
UConn vs. Gonzaga game info
- Date: Sunday, March 25, 8:49 ET
- TV: TBS
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
UConn-Gonzaga pick made 03/25/2023 at 1:45 a.m. ET.
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