UCF vs. Duke Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 12-28-2022

We’re in the thick of college football bowl season and that brings us a matchup on the gridiron when the AAC takes on the ACC in Annapolis. The UCF Knights are the “road” team as they make the trek to face the Duke Blue Devils in the Military Bowl Wednesday afternoon. UCF closed their regular season with a 45-28 loss to Tulane in the AAC title game on December 3, failing to cover as a 3.5-point underdog. Duke closed their season with a 34-31 home win over Wake Forest, winning outright as a three-point underdog in their previous contest back on November 26. This marks the first meeting between the two programs as FBS opponents.

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UCF was beaten in the AAC championship game as they were unable to slow down Tulane when it mattered. The Knights enter the bowl game 9-4 overall and 6-2 in the AAC on the year so they look to secure a 10-win season in this contest. Against Tulane, UCF trailed 10-0 after the opening quarter and never got even again. The Knights trailed 17-7 at the half, 24-14 after three quarters and 31-14 in the opening minute of the fourth before rallying. UCF got within 31-28 with 9:48 to play but gave up a touchdown 90 seconds later to trail by 10 to seal their fate. The Knights were outgained 648-410 despite winning the first down battle 23-20 and the time of possession by a 34:21 to 25:39 margin. UCF also forced three turnovers while not committing one yet took the loss.

The Knights are 53rd in the FBS in passing offense as they average 244.5 yards per game through the air. UCF is 7th in the nation in rushing offense with 236.1 yards per contest. The Knights are 26th of the 131 teams in the FBS to take the field this season in scoring offense as they put up 34.4 points per game. UCF is 40th in scoring defense as they give up 23.2 points a contest. John Rhys Plumlee is 197 of 312 passing for 2,404 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He adds a team-leading 841 yards plus 11 scores on the ground. Mikey Keene is 60 of 83 for 647 yards with six touchdowns and one interception on the year. Thomas Castellanos is nine of 16 for 75 yards while adding 120 yards and a score on the ground. Johnny Richardson is fourth on the team in the ground game with 51 carries for 340 yards and this season. Isaiah Bowser (194 carries, 760 yards, 14 TD) and RJ Harvey (112 carries, 767 yards, five TD) are the top two backs in the running back pecking order. Ryan O’Keefe leads the team with 73 receptions for 725 yards and five scores on the season. Jav on Baker (54 grabs, 747 yards, five TD) and Kobe Hudson (34 receptions, 578 yards, seven TD) are solid targets in the aerial assault. Daniel Obarski is 10 of 10 on extra points and zero of two on field goal attempts this season. Colton Boomer is 41 of 42 on extra points and 14 of 15 on field goals with a long of 43 this season.

O'Keefe (73 catches), linebacker Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste (52 tackles), and defensive back Davonte Brown (30 tackles) transferred. Defensive coordinator Travis Williams left to take over the same role at Arkansas: in his spot, Addison Williams was promoted to fill the play-caller role on defense.

  
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