U.S. Open 2023 picks: Outright winner picks, predictions, odds

The North Course at Los Angeles Country Club is going to play around 7500 yards most days of the 2023 U.S. Open. Length will be a huge benefit, but no matter how comfortable you are with the big dog off the tee, at some point you're going to have to save par from rough as thick as Jay Monahan's skin.

The USGA is to identify the best golfer in the world, and their chosen method is extreme punishment for missing fairways and greens. So unlike previous U.S. Open tracks such as Merion or Torrey Pines, or future ones such as Pinehurst No. 2, length will be needed here.

So we take one player from each of the three tiers, and put them on the board as our choices to back this week in SoCal.

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chalky: Jon Rahm +900

We're all just blowing off the reigning Masters Champion, previous U.S. Open winner, and a guy that's won times since October of last year? To be fair, Scottie Scheffler truly does have all the shots, and if he makes putts he wins this event more than he loses it.

But what are we doing if Rahm isn't his equal as a contender but overvaluing his last two outings (T50 at PGA Championship, T16 at The Memorial)? The rough at LACC is of course penal, but Rahm's occasionally wayward driver will have more room to miss than you'll normally see at a USGA setup. And on a course that requires length, he's got plenty of it (1.8 strokes gained driving distance), and his game from the fairway in has been one of the best in the world (+2.7 on approach, +1.8 putting, +1.0 around the green).

He should be the co-favorite, not the second choice here.

Midtable: Dustin Johnson +3500

He's certainly hasn't played great as of late in majors, finishing T48 and T55 at the Masters and PGA Championship respectively. But if you can find a course that more suits his game, I'm not sure where it would be.

Lots of room to drive and shape the ball off the tee, and he's a plus player out of rough that can be politely described as brutal. And holes like the Par 3 11th are actually a Par 3 for someone with his ball flight, unlike the Par 4 that will be for most of the field.

The question of course will be his putting. But he's got all the shots just like Scottie Scheffler, and all the same questions with the flatstick. But he pays five times more for the W.

Longshot: Keegan Bradley +11000

He's not scary long, but Bradley has every shot in the bag and is putting well as of late. Plus he tends to step up in majors, finishing T7 here last year, and Top 30 in both the other two so far this year. But it's his ability to save shots around the green is the difference, as some of the approaches that become bogeys for others he'll be able to get up-and-down.

He saves 0.9 strokes putting, 0.9 around the green, and 0.8 on approach per round. If he can keep it straight and make some putts, there are worse long shot candidates. And his +750 to finish Top 10 again feels very strong.

  
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