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Tyreek Hill will look to lead his Miami Dolphins to victory over the Buffalo Bills.
To make the best Tyreek Hill TNF player prop bets, you need to look only at his history against the Bills since joining the Dolphins.
The Thursday Night Football odds have the Dolphins as slight favorites, but what does that mean for Hill?
Hill's best performance against Buffalo since joining Miami was a seven-catch, 82-yard performance in Week 18 last season. That's a far cry from the 11 for 150 he put up against the Bills in his final game against them as a Kansas City Chief.
You can also check out our Bills vs. Dolphins prediction and Bills vs. Dolphins player props, which focus on the spread other appealing player props.
The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
Tyreek Hill prop predictions for Thur sday Night Football
- Tyreek Hill 8+ receptions (+130 via bet365) ???
- Tyreek Hill longest reception under 29.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ???
- Khalil Shakir +56.5 receiving yards vs. Tyreek Hill (-115 via DraftKings) ???
NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Tyreek Hill player props
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.
Yards have been an issue for Hill against the Bills, but receptions haven't.
In Week 18 last season, Hill pulled down seven catches on 13 targets. It was the third time he caught at least seven passes against the Bills since joining the Dolphins.
Hill was heavily targeted last week, and he pulled down seven catches for 130 yards.
The Dolphins are co mmitted to getting him involved, so if they struggle to get anything going for him deep, they will throw him short passes, just like they've done in past games against the Bills.
This is a three-star play because the optimal value pick doesn't come until you back Hill to catch at least eight passes, which he's only done once against the Bills since joining Miami.
The price for him to catch seven passes is at least -140 at every sportsbook. The risk isn't worth the reward in that scenario, but at +130, it is for him to catch at least eight passes.
A winning $10 wager will profit $13.
Best odds: +130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.48%
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Hill had an 80-yard touchdown in Week 1, reminding everybody just how dangerous he is.
The Bills are dealing with numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but they've also successfully game-planned for Hill with injuries in the past.
Hill hasn't caught a pass over 23 yards against the Bills since joining the Dolphins, and there's not enough justification for taking a shot at the Over at current prices.
FanDuel offers -114 for Under 29.5 yards, the best prices at any of our best NFL betting sites. bet365 and DraftKings offer -115, BetMGM -120, and Caesars -121.
A winning $10 bet will profit $8.77.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Hill could be in line for his biggest game against the Bills since joining the Dolphins.
However, bettors still shouldn't expect him to hit 100 yards.
Even in his big game against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, the numbers were skewed by his one 80-yard touchdown.
Hill can explode for a massive play in any game, but the odds aren't favorable for him to do so Thursday, and he needs a huge play to win this matchup.
Meanwhile, Khalil Shakir has become a reliable receiver for the Bills.
In Week 18 last season, he caught six passes for 105 yards against the Dolphins. He continued to play well into the postseason, and while he didn't rack up a lot of yardage, he was targeted frequently.
Josh Allen dispersed the ball evenly in Week 1, and Shakir still ended up with three catches for 42 yards.
If he gets to that number, he should cover.
The -115 odds at DraftKings will pay an $8.70 profit on a $10 bet if Shakir ends up at least 55 fewer receiving yards than Hill.
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Bills vs. Dolphins odds
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Bills vs. Dolphins
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 85 degrees, 12% chance of precipitation, wind 3 mph
- Favorite: Dolphins (-135 via DraftKings)
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