The Minnesota Twins (-135) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+110) on Thursday, September 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Twins vs Royals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 73-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 72-75 ATS.
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+16.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.30 Units / 51% ROI)
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+17.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+16.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 67 of his last 105 games (+13.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Over in 21 of his last 34 games at home (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 55 games (+3.50 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games at home (+3.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.10 Units / 22% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 67-80 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -9.72% ROI).
- 73-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.8 Units / -6.03% ROI
- 69-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -2.26% ROI
- 67-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -5.71% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 72-75 against the Run Line (-15.6 Units / -8.11% ROI).
- 60-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -9.73% ROI
- 73-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -1.55% ROI
- 69-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -7.31% ROI
Josh Winder: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 41 ABs ending on a two-strike slider from Josh Winder. — Spencer Strider has the longest active streak at 42.
Josh Winder has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to July 12nd — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 13.
Josh Winder has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (21 Total Bases / 35 ABs) this month (2 games) — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .404 — fifth Percentile.
Josh Winder has allowed an OPS of .942 (38 PA’s) this month (2 games) — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .706 — eighth Percentile.
Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 57% (452/799) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Jon Heasley has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (34/73) this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (83/413) against Jon Heasley this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 28% — third Percentile.
Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 58% (212/364) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.