The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Thursday, April 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.

The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Twins vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Twins are 11-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 9-10 ATS.

Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
• Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 58% ROI)
• Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 62% ROI)
• Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 51% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Triston Casas has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)
• Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games at home (+7.85 Units / 157% ROI)
• Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+7.25 Units / 121% ROI)
• Adam Duvall has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.75 Units / 84% ROI)

Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Twins Best Bets Today:

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 32% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 11-7 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 22.3% ROI).

• 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 19.51% ROI
• 6-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -5 Units / -25.06% ROI
• 10-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 16.96% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 9-10 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -6.65% ROI).

• 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -11.9% ROI
• 13-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.45 Units / 31.08% ROI
• 6-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -40.8% ROI

Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (2/22) against Kenta Maeda on changeups this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.

Kenta Maeda has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to August 14th, 2021 — Jacob deGrom has the longest active streak at 6.

Kenta Maeda has not walked any of the 44 batters that he has faced this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 40% (36/91) against Kenta Maeda this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tanner Houck has a strike rate of just 59% (289/492) vs left-handed batters since last season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.

9 of Tanner Houck’s 36 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) have been backdoor since last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (159/303) since last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

  
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