The Minnesota Twins (-140) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+115) on Thursday, September 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Twins are 75-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 70-69 ATS.

Twins vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

• Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 13-8, 4.09 ERA
• Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 6-9, 4.34 ERA

Twins vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Twins vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 28 games (+22.50 Units / 80% ROI)
• Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.85 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 27 games (+16.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 38 games (+15.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 38 games (+15.30 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+17.60 Units / 293% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+11.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+10.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+9.95 Units / 18% ROI)

Twins Best Bets Today:

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 73 games (+12.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.35 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 119 games (+3.90 Units / 2% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 33 away games (+2.95 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 away games (+1.10 Units / 5% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 82 of their last 136 games (+24.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 74 of their last 130 games (+13.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+10.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 66 games (+4.25 Units / 6% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are 65-74 against the Run Line (-11.75 Units / -6.67% ROI).

• 75-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -2.58% ROI
• 71-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.05 Units / 2.02% ROI
• 62-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.6 Units / -10.89% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 70-69 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -2.95% ROI).

• 69-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -6.07% ROI
• 64-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -8.6% ROI
• 71-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 0.59% ROI

Rays vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .124 (12-for-97) against Pablo Lopez’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .207 — 98th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has walked 8 of 243 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (229/637) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (129/370) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.

Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (58/160) against Taj Bradley when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Taj Bradley has a strikeout rate of 36% (65 SO in 180 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Taj Bradley has a strikeout rate of 34% (130 SO in 379 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.

Taj Bradley has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to August 12nd — Bobby Miller has the longest active streak at 10.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

  
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