The Minnesota Twins (-115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-105) on Wednesday, April 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Twins vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 4-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 1-5 ATS.
Twins vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Twins vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Marlins vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Marlins vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
Marlins vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Pablo Lopez | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +105 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 81 of their last 146 games (+11.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 167 games (+10.05 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 91 of their last 167 games (+8.85 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 86 away games (+1.40 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in their last 1 games (+1.15 Units / 115% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 98 of their last 168 games (+19.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 95 of their last 165 games (+19.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 168 games (+8.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 5-0 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 98.23% ROI).
- 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 43.48% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -24.11% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 15.74% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 1-5 against the Run Line (-6.5 Units / -70.65% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -31.62% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -35.38% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 26.87% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 56% (13/23) against Pablo Lopez this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez threw his changeup 41% of the time (229/565) when behind in the count in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez threw his changeup 44% of the time (269/609) with runners in scoring position in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (231/757) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has a strike rate of just 38% (14/37) when ahead in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strike rate of just 56% (51/91) this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .118 (2 Total Bases / 17 ABs) this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .420 — 94th Percentile.