Thursday was a busy day as we waited around for NFL Week 4 to kick off with the Thursday nighter. I did USC and UCLA betting previews for the Los Angeles Times, did some editing/posting of stories on our website at VSiN.com (again, I’m preaching to the choir for subscribers who know how much great sports betting content there is here, but those on trial basis should check it out as much as possible) and spent an inordinate time at the animal clinic and pharmacies for me and my dog, Beemo.
Unfortunately, my Best Bets on Thursday didn’t help pay for any of that as my top play on the Dolphins + 4 came up short in their 27-15 loss at the Bengals. It didn’t help that Tua Tagovailoa was knocked out of the game, but Teddy Bridgewater still had a chance to pull out the upset until an untimely INT. We also lost our lone MLB 1st 5 play on the Rangers as they trailed the Mariners 6-4 after 5 innings. Let’s recap the rest of the (full-game) betting results from Thursday, update our season-long betting stats in MLB and NFL and give our Best Bets for Friday (including CFB plays for Friday and Saturday. And then, as we’ve started to do this season, we’ll update the rerun of our Wednesday column where I give my “takes” on the full NFL Week 4 schedule.Thursday’s Recaps
NFL: Bengals beat Dolphins 27-15 on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 4. The Bengals also covered after closing as 4-point home favorites and the game stayed Under the closing betting total of 49 points.
More NFL: Favorites improved to 27-20-1 SU on the season with 1 pick-'em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2), but underdogs still lead 27-19-2 ATS (58.7 percent). Home teams improved to 26-22-1 SU and 24-23-2 ATS. Unders improved to 30-18-1 (62.5 percent), while primetime Unders improved to 8-3 (after going 1-2 in Week 3).
CFB: No. 19 BYU had to rally in the 2nd half to beat Utah State 38-26 on Thursday night, but did NOT cover as a 25.5-point home favorite. The game went Over the betting total of 60 points on Utah State’s TD with 1:09 left (the Aggies were already covering the spread before the “meaningless” score). The only other FBS (Division I) team in action Thursday night (as an “extra write-in game” on the Don Best screen as it was moved up to beat oncoming Hurricane Ian) was South Carolina (-40.5), which routed South Carolina State 50-10, but did NOT cover vs. consensus closing line of -40.5.
MLB: Faves went 7-3 on Thursday with the AL wild-card hopeful Mariners (-120) beating the Rangers 10-9 late in 11 innings. The upsets were by the Cubs (+ 162 in 2-0 win vs. Phillies, who lost their 5th straight), the Marlins (+ 150 in 4-2 win at Brewers) and Guardians (+ 120 in 2-1 win vs. Rays). Home teams went 7-3. Unders went 7-3.
More MLB: Faves lead 1,389-900 SU (60.7 percent) on the season with 36 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace and well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,230-1,104 (52.7 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but had been on the rise but slipping lately). Unders lead 1,146-1,071-118 (51.7 percent).
Friday’s TakesTulane + 2.5 at Houston: Clearly, Houston is only favored because it has home-field advantage in this AAC battle, but I’m not so sure Tulane shouldn’t still be favored. The Wave fell for the first time this season in a 27-24 loss vs. Southern Mississippi, but outgained them 451 yards to 253. Tulane is also + 125 on the money line as I clearly think it can pull the outright upset.
Virginia + 3 at Duke UL-Lafayette + 9 vs. South Alabama Texas A&M + 3.5 at Mississippi State White Sox 1st 5 + 0.5 + 105 at Padres: This will be one of our last swagger plays of the season as the White Sox snapped a 9-game losing streak on Thursday. We know San Diego’s Yu Darvish has the edge on Chicago’s Davis Martin, but the swagger angle still has me on this play, at least for the 1st 5 innings. We’re taking the + 0.5 as that’s worked for us several times lately with these big lines and just needing a tie for the win. The straight 1st 5 ML will be around + 160 while the White Sox are a juicy + 180 on the full-game money line for those who think they can really play spoiler. Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to bet the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has worked very well so far this NFL season as underdogs are 27-18-2 ATS (60 percent) vs. the consensus closing lines in Vegas through the first three weeks (note: we’ve graded one game as closing pick-’em: Commanders at Lions in Week 2, so that’s why our stats have just 47 games). During the first two weeks of the season, we were a little disappointed as we weren’t killing it as much as we would expect with so many dogs covering, but went 3-1 ATS with our Best Bets in this column last week (plus also hit our top 2-team, 6-point teaser play with the Dolphins and Lions), so we’re feeling better about ourselves and our decision-making process with these dogs. Personally, I have one bit of bad dog news as I had to take one of my dogs, Beemo, to the vet on Tuesday as he got into a bag of chocolate chip cookies that I made the other day. Hopefully, he and the rest of my dogs this weekend are healthy and strong. Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4) Best Bet: Dolphins + 4 (pool play: Dolphins in all of my rare SU and ATS contests that use the Thursday night game). Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (in London)This is the first “international” game this season from London, so beware that it starts at 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT on Sunday. The Vikings have been an up-and-down team already in the young season with a Week 1 win over the NFC North rival Packers, then getting dominated by the Eagles in Week 2 before rallying to beat the Lions 28-24 in Week 3 (and failing to cover as 6.5-point home favorites). Now, they’re 2.5-point faves at most Las Vegas books and -3 at DraftKings against a Saints team that has lost two straight games to the Buccaneers and Panthers after barely beating the Falcons 27-26 in the opener. The Vikings are the better team right now, but not by a wide margin and I’m not going to lay the points on the road chalk. Instead, this is the right time to talk about our preferred teasers where we capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. My top “advantage teaser” is to take a 2-team, 6-point teaser with the Saints + 8.5 tied with the Falcon s + 8 vs. the Browns as well as other combinations with the Cardinals + 7.5 at the Panthers, Broncos + 8.5 at the Raiders and Rams + 8.5 at the 49ers on Monday Night Football. Note: another potential teaser play is the Buccaneers teased up to + 8 vs. the Chiefs in the Sunday nighter, but we’re not sure if that’s going to be played in Tampa or moved because of Hurricane Ian.
Best Bet: Saints + 8.5 or better with Falcons + 8 vs. the Browns, plus other teasers (pool play: Saints around 55/45 in ATS contests – higher if getting + 3 or 3.5 – but Vikings still 55/45 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
I’ve already gone on record with the Titans getting more than a field goal in this coin-flip game at the Colts. Both teams earned their first wins of the season in Week 3 after slow starts (the Titans lost to the Giants and Bills before breaking through against the Raiders while the Colts were 0-1-1 with a tie vs. the Texans and a blowout loss to the Jaguars before rallying to beat the Chiefs 20-17 on Sunday). These teams were expected to be battling for the AFC South title, but instead they’re chasing the first-place Jaguars with the loser of this game in a bigger hole. Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill played better in the win over the Raiders, plus Derrick Henry is still a beast.
Best Bet: Titans + 3.5 (pool play: Titans 75/25 in ATS contests – lower at 3 or especially 2.5 – plus slightly better than 50/50 in SU pools).
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3)
We have an unlikely matchup of 2-1 teams here with the Bears visiting the Giants. The Bears are setting offensive football back by the decade, but it’s working as they continue to wait for Justin Fields to develop. The Bears are No. 6 in rushing offense and take on a Giants’ rushing defense that ranked No. 28, and we don’t think it matters if starting RB David Montgomery (knee, ankle injuries) is able to go as backup Khalil Herbert (157 yards, 2 TDs vs. the Texans) might be the bigger threat anyway.
Best Bet: Bears + 3, but waiting for 3.5 (pool play: Bears 67/33 in ATS contests – even higher if offered 3.5 – and we’ll call for outright upset with Bears 55/45 in SU pools).
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
Even though this is in the cluttered 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT window, this is arguably the marquee game of Week 4. Both teams are just 2-1 with the Ravens inexplicably losing to the Dolphins in Week 2 and the Bills falling to the Dolphins in Week 3 despite outgaining them 497 yards to 212. I successfully faded the Bills last week with the Dolphins, but I don’t think I’m going to be willing to do that again even if this gets back to + 3.5 or even 4. In addition to an explosive offense, the Bills are No. 1 in total defense, allowing just 214 yards per game while the Ravens are last at 457.3.