Saturday was another exciting sport betting day, highlighted by wall-to-wall football action, and some horse racing thrown in.
There were upsets and near-upsets that we’ll recap below, plus we also did our weekly Circa contest update story for VSiN.com, so check that out. We’ll recap the weekend’s results in our Sunday and Monday columns here from the Tuley’s Takes home office. On the racetrack, our two picks in our “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” column came up short and I finished 4th in a National Handicappers Championship qualifier in which only the Top 2 earned a seat at the championship tournament in February. However, I did earn NHC Tour points and hopefully I can at least climb into the Top 75 non-qualifiers who get in the back door to the NHC Final like I did two years ago. As for my sports bets, it was an overall disappointing. I won my Best Bet of the day on Notre Dame + 1.5 at North Carolina as the Irish pulled the minor upset, but lost my other three posted CFB play (Utah State, Boston College and Hawaii – and none of them were close). I pushed my Rangers 1st 5 + 100 play vs. the Guardians as the score was tied 1-1 after the first 5 innings, and lost my second play on the Angels 1st 5 + 110 vs. the Twins as they trailed 7-3 after 5 innings. Like I’ve said before: bring on the NFL! Let’s get to our daily recaps of Saturday’s betting action and then look for our Best Bets on Sunday as we’ll list our top NFL play at current prices as well as an MLB 1st 5 play. In addition, like we’ve started doing with this season, we’ll rerun our entire Wednesday column and update our plays based on how the lines have been moving as we know a lot of readers wait until gameday to make their wagers.Saturday’s Recaps
CFB: Kansas State upset No. 6 Oklahoma 41-34 on Saturday night as 13.5-point road underdog and + 425 on the money line. No. 7 USC beat Oregon St. 17-14 to avoid being 2nd Top 10 team to lose to an unranked team, but did NOT cover as 6-point road favorite. No. 1 Georgia (-45 in 39-22 win vs. Kent State), No. 4 Michigan (-17 in 34-27 win vs. Maryland), No. 5 Clemson (-7.5 in 51-45, 2OT win at No. 21 Wake Forest) and No. 8 Kentucky (-27 in 31-23 win vs. my alma mater, Northern Illinois) also didn't cover.
More CFB: In games between ranked teams, No. 23 Texas A&M (-1.5) covered vs. closing line in 23-21 win vs. No. 10 Arkansas (though some early Arkansas backers cashed at + 2.5 or pushed on plus/minus 2). No. 11 Tennessee (-11) also held on to beat No. 20 Florida 38-33, but didn't cover.
MLB: Faves went 11-3 Saturday with Cubs-Pirates closing pick-'em (PIrates won 6-0 to snap 8-game losing streak). The only upsets were by the A's (+ 325 in 10-4 win vs. Mets), Tigers (+ 150 in 7-2 win at White Sox) and Blue Jays (-104 in 3-1 win at Ray). Road teams led 9-6. Overs 10-5.More MLB: Faves lead 1,350-881 SU (60.5 percent) on the season with 36 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace and well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,196-1,079 (52.6 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but had been on the rise but slipping lately). Unders lead 1,112-1,047-118 (51.5 percent).
Sunday’s TakesDolphins + 5 vs. Bills: See below for more, but we look forward to the Dolphins’ offense getting to attack a Buffalo defense that will be missing four starters.
Panthers + 8.5/Titans + 2: My favorite 2-team, 6-point teaser in Sunday’s early games. Lions + 6 at Vikings: I have + 7.5 in pocket from last Sunday night, but think Lions are still playable at 6. Commanders + 6.5 vs. Eagles: Hoping we see 7 on Sunday. Cowboys + 1 at Giants (Monday night)Pirates 1st 5 -110 vs. Cubs: This is a “swagger” play on the Pirates who have the momentum from snapping their 8-game losing streak on Saturday. The Pirates start Luis Ortiz (0-0, 0.84 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) against Adam Sampson (2-5, 3.35 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). Regular readers might wonder why I’m technically betting a favorite here, but we regularly lay -110 in the point-spread sports so I have no problem doing it here. My second MLB play on Sunday will be the Cardinals 1st 5 + 125 with Adam Wainwright (11-10, 3.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) against Michael Grove (0-0, 4.66 ERA, 1.55 WHIP).
SUNDAYBaltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots
The Ravens’ also blew a big lead in their Week 2 loss to the Dolphins as they were rolling along before the collapse. This line also looks like it could be on the rise as the NFL Betting Splits page on VSiN.com (with info from DraftKings) shows 90 percent of the bets and money on the Ravens early this week. But even if this gets to 3.5, I don’t think I’ll be able to pull the trigger on the Patriots, who lost 20-7 to that same Miami team and haven’t shown the same offensive firepower (7 points vs. Dolphins, 17 vs. the Steelers) to keep up with a Baltimore offense that is averaging 31 points per game behind QB Lamar Jackson.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests – higher if contest uses -2.5, lower if it uses 3.5 – and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins
This was one of the plays I gave out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (my weekly appearance is 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night, or 15 minutes into the archived version) and in my earlier columns this week as I thought we wouldn’t get any better than Dolphins + 4.5. I was wrong about that as the Bills routed the Titans 41-7 on Monday night and this line has been adjusted up to 5.5, but that’s OK with us as 5 is less of a key number than 4, so we’ll let our original bet ride. It’s scary to fade the Bills again with how dominant they’ve been in routs of the Rams and Titans, but Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins showed they can get in a shootout with anyone.
Best Bet: Dolphins + 5.5, though if you haven’t bet yet, I’d wait to see if we can get + 6 (pool play: Dolphins 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at New York Jets
The Bengals are certainly suffering from the Super Bowl loser hangover as they’re off to an 0-2 start. They should get in the win column here, that is as long as Joe Burrow doesn’t keep having to face pressure from a porous offensive line. The Jets were certainly impressive in rallying to beat the Browns behind Joe Flacco (and the Browns failing to run out the clock), but I can’t trust either of those things to happen two weeks in a row so I’m also passing on this home dog.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints (-2.5 -120) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have been more competitive than expected (though both of their games against the Browns and Giants have been lined around pick-’em so it shouldn’t be too surprising), but I believe they’re taking a step up in class here against the Saints. I can’t take them at such a short price, but they’re a prime teaser play as we can move the line up over a touchdown. This is a good place to list the preferred teaser plays for this week (though they’ve been underperforming for us so far) as I’ll use the Panthers in a 2-team, 6-point teaser at + 8.5 in combination with the Titans + 8.5 vs. the Raiders in Sunday’s early games. Other potential teaser plays include the Packers + 8 at the Buccaneers, Falcons + 8 at Seahawks, Broncos + 7.5 vs. the 49ers on Sunday night and the Cowboys + 8.5 at the Giants on Monday night.
Best Bet: Panthers-Titans in 6-point teaser, plus other teaser plays (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Saints 55/45 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6)