Friday was another busy day in the life of a sports bettor/sports betting journalist in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.
I found myself editing and posting more stories on the VSiN.com website (I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again – and I know I’m preaching to the choir of VSiN subscribers who already know that we have more sports betting content than any site ever – but if you’re in your trial phase, you should really check out everything VSiN has to offer and join the club), plus also doing some errands, including hauling our washing machine to the curb for “bulk” garbage pickup in the morning, and proxy duties as well. During the course of the night, we followed our MLB wagers and lost our Best Bet on the A’s 1st 5 + 0.5 + 105 as they were blown away by the Mets, 8-0 after the 1st 5 innings and 9-2 for the game, but at least we won our higher-priced play on the Tigers 1st 5 + 150 at the White Sox as the Tigers led 3-1 after 5 innings on the way to the biggest MLB of the night with a 5-3 win at + 160. And now we’re back home late at night putting together this column as well as “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” for Saturday’s race for the horseplayers out there. It’s going to be an action-packed Saturday both in the sportsbooks and racebooks here in Vegas (and across the country). Let’s get to our daily recaps of yesterday’s betting action and then look for more Best Bets on Saturday’s card. In addition, like we’ve started doing with this season, we’ll rerun our entire Wednesday column and update our plays throughout the weekend as the lines move for readers who are waiting to make their bets1`.Friday’s Recaps
CFB: UTEP upset Boise State 27-10 late Friday as a 16-point home underdog and + 525 on the money line. Air Force ran over Nevada 48-20, covering as a 24-point home favorite. Syracuse beat Virginia 22-20, but did NOT cover as 9.5-point home favorite.
MLB: Faves went 9-6 Friday with biggest upsets by the Tigers (+ 160 in 5-3 win at White Sox), Rockies (+ 150 in 4-3, 10-inning win vs. Padres) and Cardinals (+ 144 in 11-0 rout at Dodgers). Road teams went 8-7. Overs went 9-5-1 with the push in the Marlins’ 5-2 win vs. the Nationals with a betting total of 7 runs.
More MLB: Faves lead 1,339-878 SU (60.4 percent) on the season with 35 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,190-1,070 (52.7 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but has been on the rise). Unders lead 1,107-1,037-118 (51.6 percent).
Saturday’s Takes Notre Dame + 1.5 at North Carolina (now up to + 2.5 Boston College + 17.5 at Florida State Hawaii + 4.5 at New Mexico State Utah State + 3 vs. UNLVRangers 1st 5 + 100 vs. Guardians: The Guardians haven’t seen Glenn Otto yet, so I’m counting on him to keep the Rangers close and hopefully they can push across a few runs to get the 1st 5 win. My other play will be on the Angels 1st 5 + 110 with Reid Detmers. The last time he faced the Twins, he allowed just 2 runs in the 1st 5 innings and hopefully he can repeat that and the Angels do better this time (they were shut out 2-0 through 5 of that game, though they rallied to win 5-3 in 11 innings).
SUNDAYBaltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots
The Ravens’ also blew a big lead in their Week 2 loss to the Dolphins as they were rolling along before the collapse. This line also looks like it could be on the rise as the NFL Betting Splits page on VSiN.com (with info from DraftKings) shows 90 percent of the bets and money on the Ravens early this week. But even if this gets to 3.5, I don’t think I’ll be able to pull the trigger on the Patriots, who lost 20-7 to that same Miami team and haven’t shown the same offensive firepower (7 points vs. Dolphins, 17 vs. the Steelers) to keep up with a Baltimore offense that is averaging 31 points per game behind QB Lamar Jackson.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests – higher if contest uses -2.5, lower if it uses 3.5 – and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins
This was one of the plays I gave out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (my weekly appearance is 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night, or 15 minutes into the archived version) and in my earlier columns this week as I thought we wouldn’t get any better than Dolphins + 4.5. I was wrong about that as the Bills routed the Titans 41-7 on Monday night and this line has been adjusted up to 5.5, but that’s OK with us as 5 is less of a key number than 4, so we’ll let our original bet ride. It’s scary to fade the Bills again with how dominant they’ve been in routs of the Rams and Titans, but Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins showed they can get in a shootout with anyone.
Best Bet: Dolphins + 5.5, though if you haven’t bet yet, I’d wait to see if we can get + 6 (pool play: Dolphins 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at New York Jets
The Bengals are certainly suffering from the Super Bowl loser hangover as they’re off to an 0-2 start. They should get in the win column here, that is as long as Joe Burrow doesn’t keep having to face pressure from a porous offensive line. The Jets were certainly impressive in rallying to beat the Browns behind Joe Flacco (and the Browns failing to run out the clock), but I can’t trust either of those things to happen two weeks in a row so I’m also passing on this home dog.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints (-2.5 -120) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have been more competitive than expected (though both of their games against the Browns and Giants have been lined around pick-’em so it shouldn’t be too surprising), but I believe they’re taking a step up in class here against the Saints. I can’t take them at such a short price, but they’re a prime teaser play as we can move the line up over a touchdown. This is a good place to list the preferred teaser plays for this week (though they’ve been underperforming for us so far) as I’ll use the Panthers in a 2-team, 6-point teaser at + 8.5 in combination with the Titans + 8.5 vs. the Raiders in Sunday’s early games. Other potential teaser plays include the Packers + 8 at the Buccaneers, Falcons + 8 at Seahawks, Broncos + 7.5 vs. the 49ers on Sunday night and the Cowboys + 8.5 at the Giants on Monday night.
Best Bet: Panthers-Titans in 6-point teaser, plus other teaser plays (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Saints 55/45 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6)