Wednesday was mostly spent in the Tuley’s Takes home office, recovering from writing our 3,275-word column from the night before with our “takes” on the full NFL Week 3 card.
Oh, we also did some MLB and CFB handicapping along with some chores and baking some chocolate-chip cookies for our sweet tooth, but we were mostly waiting for the baseball action to take place to follow our bets and the Aaron Judge AL home run record chase, though he remained stuck on 60. As for our own action, we lost our Best Bet on the Rays 1st 5 + 110 vs. the Astros as Corey Kluber did his job by allowing just 1 run through 5 innings, but the Rays’ offense failed to score. Our second-best bet also lacked runs, but that worked out perfect as we went with the A’s 1st 5 + 0.5 + 105 as they were such a big dog to the Mariners, so the 0-0 score after 5 was a winner as James Kaprielan came through for us again with 5 scoreless innings (on the way to 7 total as the A’s won 2-1 as + 192 underdogs). Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s (full-game) betting results and look for more plays on Thursday, which includes the kickoff of NFL Week 3 and a college football game. In addition, like we’ve started doing with this season, we’ll rerun our entire Wednesday column and update our plays throughout the weekend as the lines move for readers who are waiting to make their bets (but beware you’ll miss out on some better numbers at times, though in a lot of cases we do recommend waiting until closer to gameday to bet our underdogs as the public will often bet the lines higher). Wednesday’s RecapsMLB: Dogs led 8-6 Wednesday with Blue Jays-Phillies closing pick-'em. The biggest upsets were by the Diamondbacks (+ 260 in 6-1 win at Dodgers), Nationals (+ 216 in 3-2 win at Braves) and A's (+ 192 in 2-1 win vs. Mariners). Home teams went 9-6. Unders 9-5-1 with push in the Astros’ 5-2 win at Rays with a betting total of 7 runs.
More MLB: Faves lead 1,323-866 SU (60.4 percent) on the season with 35 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,176-1,056 (52.7 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but has been on the rise). Unders lead 1,097-1,020-117 (51.8 percent).
Thursday’s Takes
Steelers + 4.5 at Browns: This play is detailed in the column below, but basically we’re getting more than a field goal in a division game (see last Thursday’s win with the Chargers covering in a loss at the Chiefs).
VIrginia Tech + 1.5 or better vs. West Virginia: We gave this out on Wednesday in case the Hokies got bet to favoritism. That hasn’t happened yet, but we're not sure why Virginia Tech (2-1) is a home dog vs. West Virginia (1-2). Some books, like Circa Sports and BetMGM in Vegas, are up to 2.5, so shop around for the best lines and check out the VSiN Betting Splits Page https://www.vsin.com/betting-resources/daily-betting-insights-for-mlb-nba-nhl/ (with info from DraftKings) for more info.
Diamondbacks 1st 5 + 0.5 + 105 at Dodgers: Let’s try again with the 1st 5 run line as the D-backs’ Zac Gallen (12-3, 2.52 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) goes against the Dodgers’ Julio Urias (17-7, 2.27 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) as we might get another winning 0-0 tie. I’ll also take a flier on the Diamondbacks 1st 5 + 165 and also + 195 as Arizona has already won the first two games of this four-game series and the Dodgers are mostly just coasting toward the playoffs.
THURSDAY Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-4.5)The Thursday nighter gives us a battle between co-leaders in the AFC North as the Steelers and Browns are 1-1 and also tied with the Ravens atop the division (with the Bengals a game behind at 0-2) as all four teams lost in Week 2. The Browns should have beaten the Jets if Kareem Hunt or Nick Chubb had gone down in-bounds like they were supposed to, but instead they allowed the Jets to get the ball back and Joe Flacco threw 2 TD passes wrapped around an onside kick to rally for a 31-30 upset. The Steelers came up short vs. the Patriots, but I don’t see why the Browns should be favored by more than a field goal here as the advance line last week was Browns -3 but is now over -4 (and was at 5 at some books, including DraftKings, on Tuesday). Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers’ offense didn’t look as good as they did in the Week 1 win at the Bengals, but they should benefit from facing a Cleveland defense that is allowing an average of 17 points in the fourth quar ters so far this season. The Steelers also have the edge on defense and should be able to contain the Jacoby Brissett-led Browns offense.
Best Bet: Steelers + 4.5 (pool play: Steelers in all my rare SU and ATS contests that use the Thursday night game).
SUNDAY
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots
The Ravens’ also blew a big lead in their Week 2 loss to the Dolphins as they were rolling along before the collapse. This line also looks like it could be on the rise as the NFL Betting Splits page on VSiN.com (with info from DraftKings) shows 90 percent of the bets and money on the Ravens early this week. But even if this gets to 3.5, I don’t think I’ll be able to pull the trigger on the Patriots, who lost 20-7 to that same Miami team and haven’t shown the same offensive firepower (7 points vs. Dolphins, 17 vs. the Steelers) to keep up with a Baltimore offense that is averaging 31 points per game behind QB Lamar Jackson.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests – lower if a contest has line at Ravens -3.5 – and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins
This was one of the plays I gave out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (my weekly appearance is 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night, or 15 minutes into the archived version) and in my earlier columns this week as I thought we wouldn’t get any better than Dolphins + 4.5. I was wrong about that as the Bills routed the Titans 41-7 on Monday night and this line has been adjusted up to 5.5, but that’s OK with us a 5 is less of a key number than 4, so we’ll let our original bet ride. It’s scary to fade the Bills again with how dominant they’ve been in routs of the Rams and Titans, but Tua Tagoviola and the Dolphins showed they can get in a shootout with anyone.
Best Bet: Dolphins + 5.5, though if you haven’t bet yet, I’d wait for + 6 (pool play: Dolphins 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at New York Jets
The Bengals are certainly suffering from the Super Bowl loser hangover as they’re off to an 0-2 start. They should get in the win column here, that is as long as Joe Burrow doesn’t keep having to face pressure from a porous offensive line. The Jets were certainly impressive in rallying to beat the Browns behind Joe Flacco (and the Browns failing to run out the clock), but I can’t trust either of those things to happen two weeks in a row so I’m also passing on this home dog.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints (-2.5 -120) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have been more competitive than expected (though both of their games against the Browns and Giants have been lined around pick-’em so it shouldn’t be too surprising), but I believe they’re taking a step up in class here against the Saints. I can’t take them at such a short price here, but they’re a prime teaser play as we can move the line up over a touchdown. This is a good place to list the preferred teaser plays for this week (though they’ve been underperforming for us so far) as I’ll use the Panthers in a 2-team, 6-point teaser at + 8.5 in combination with the Titans + 8.5 vs. the Raiders in Sunday’s early games. Other potential teaser plays include the Packers + 8 at the Buccaneers, Falcons + 8 at Seahawks, Broncos + 7.5 vs. the 49ers on Sunday night and the Cowboys + 8.5 at the Giants on Monday night.
Best Bet: Panthers-Titans in 6-point teaser, plus other teaser plays (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Saints 55/45 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6)