Everybody makes a run!
That’s been a cliche about the NBA for a long time as it’s not uncommon for 20-point leads to disappear, but I was saying it repeatedly during Sunday’s NFL card. In the early games, the Ravens were routing the Dolphins 35-14 entering the fourth quarter and the Browns were up 30-17 on the Jets after the two-minute warning – but both ended up not only letting the Dolphins and Jets get back-door covers but pulling off outright upsets. The Lions almost suffered the same fate as they led the Commanders 22-0 at halftime and had to withstand a rally, but at least they still won and covered. In the afternoon games, the Raiders led the Cardinals 20-0 at halftime as Kyler Murray looked helpless, but then he almost single-handedly rallied the Cards to tie the game 23-23 and send it to overtime where they also pulled a shocking upset. The Rams led the Falcons 28-3 (hmm, the Falcons are familiar with that score) early in the third quarter, but had to hold off a furious rally as the 10-point underdog Falcons got the back-door cover for their backers with a 31-27 final. When all the dust had settled, underdogs went 8-3-1 ATS against the consensus closing lines in Vegas as we’ll detail in the recaps below. Note: we graded the Commanders-Lions closing at pick-’em, so that would be another covering fave if you choose to grade it that way. In addition, the Giants closed as a consensus 1-point home dog against the Panthers after being a short fave all week. Personally, I went 2-1 ATS with my Best Bets that I posted in Sunday’s column as the Falcons and Texans both covered, but I lost on the Seahawks and also lost my top teaser play on the Saints + 8.5/Steelers + 8.5. Including my Thursday night pick on the Chargers, I went 3-2 ATS overall with my Best Bets in last week’s column. Unfortunately, I went 2-3 with my main contest plays as I used the Saints instead of the Falcons, so I didn’t benefit as much as I should have from all these barking dogs. We’ll also recap how contestants did in the major Las Vegas handicapping contests. Despite all the upsets, the carnage in Circa Survivor wasn’t as bad as it was in Week 1, but more than two-thirds of the original 6,133-entry field has been eliminated. Finally, we’ll give our Best Bets for Monday’s action in the NFL doubleheader and MLB, plus provide a couple of early NFL Week 3 plays we gave out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night at 9:15 p.m. PT (15 minutes into the show if listening to the archive). Sunday’s recapsNFL: Packers beat Bears 27-10 on Sunday Night Football, covering as 10-point home favorites. The game stayed Under the betting total of 42 points. Underdogs still led 8-3-1 ATS on Sunday with 1 pick-'em (Commanders-Lions) while faves/dogs split 6-6 SU. Home teams went 8-5 SU and 6-6-1 ATS while Unders dominated again at 8-4-1.
More NFL: Including the Chiefs' non-cover in their 27-24 win vs. the Chargers on Thursday night (and another Under), faves are 7-6 SU overall in Week 2 but dogs lead 9-3-1 ATS. Home teams are 9-5 SU but road teams lead 7-6-1 ATS. Unders are 9-4-1. On the season, faves are 17-11-1 SU but dogs lead 17-11-1 ATS (meaning there have been 6 times that a dog has covered in a loss). Home teams are 15-14-1 SU and ATS. Unders are 20-9-1 (5-0 in primetime games).
NFL day games: Underdogs went 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in Sunday’s early games with Commanders-Lions closing pick-'em. The outright upsets were by the Dolphins (+ 3.5 at Ravens), Jets (+ 6.5 at Browns), Jaguars (+ 3 vs. Colts) and Giants (closed + 1 vs. Panthers after being faves all week). The push was the Patriots closing -3 at the Steelers and winning 17-14, though some may grade that as a covering fave as the Pats were -1.5 to -2 most of the week. Road teams went 4-3 SU and 3-3-1 ATS. Unders 4-3.