I’m so glad it’s Sunday. Bring on the NFL!
Saturday was shaping as such a great day with wall-to-wall football that lasted until nearly midnight here in the Tuley’s Takes home office (and nearly to 2 a.m. CT in Iowa as the Hawkeyes had multiple lightning delays before finally finishing their 27-0 shutout of Nevada as 24-point home favorites). We also had MLB to follow and the completion of the Canelo-GGG trilogy. As you’ll see below in our daily recaps, it was a pretty chalky day all around, so you know I didn’t have a good day. I went 1-3 ATS with my four CFB plays posted in the Saturday version of this column as Western Kentucky + 6.5 was the only pick to cash in a 33-30 OT loss at Indiana. I thought Texas Tech + 10.5 was going to get the back-door cover at North Carolina State, but came up short, while North Texas + 2.5 at UNLV and Michigan State + 3.5 at Washington were both clearly the wrong sides in lopsided losses. At least I split my MLB 1st 5 plays as the Angels led the Mariners 2-0 after the first 5 innings, but the Yankees trailed the Brewers 4-1 after 5 innings. All in all, it left me with a greater appreciation of betting pro football! Hopefully Sunday is at least as good as Saturday was bad. Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s betting action and list our Best Bets for Sunday (as of early Sunday morning). After that, we’ll again rerun our Wednesday column in which we gave our “takes” on the full NFL schedule, though we’ve added updates in italics along the way for those betting late. Friday’s recapsCFB: In a chalky Saturday (at least among top-ranked teams), the Top 9 teams won and covered, even including ultra-high favorites No. 2 Alabama (-50 vs. UL-Monroe) and No. 8 Oklahoma State (-54 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff) covering by identical 63-7 scores! In the biggest scare among Top 10 teams, No. 10 Arkansas (-25.5 vs. Missouri State) rallied to win 38-27 but did NOT cover.
More CFB: Unranked Washington (-3.5) beat No. 11 Michigan State 39-28 but it was NOT an upset. In games between ranked opponents, No. 25 Oregon (-3.5) also covered as chalk in 41-20 win vs. No. 12 BYU and No. 24 Texas A&M (-6.5) covered in 17-9 win vs. No. 12 Miami-Fla.
Boxing: Canelo Alvarez beat Gennadiy Golovkin by unanimous decision late Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena here in Las Vegas to retain his undisputed super middleweight title. Alvarez did it as a -500 favorite (+ 105 to win by Decision). The “will go” (aka Over) 10.5 rounds cashed.
MLB: Faves went 11-6 Saturday with upsets by the A's (+ 234 in 8-5 win at Astros, who had 6-game win streak snapped), Royals (+ 124 in 9-0 win at Red Sox), Rockies (+ 122 in 3-1 win at Cubs), Nationals (+ 112 in 5-3 win vs. Marlins), Braves (+ 100 in 4-3 win vs. Phillies) and Padres (-103 in 2-0 win at Diamondbacks). Home teams went 11-6. Unders 11-5-1 with push in the Nationals’ 5-3 win vs. Marlins with a betting total of 8 runs.More MLB: Faves lead 1,292-844 SU (60.5 percent) on the season with 33 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,151-1,026 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but has been on the rise). Unders lead 1,071-993-115 (51.9 percent).
Sunday’s TakesSaints + 8.5/Steelers + 8.5 (2-team, 6-point NFL teaser)
Falcons + 10 at Rams
Seahawks + 9 at 49ers
Texans + 10 at Broncos
A’s 1st 5 + 280 at Astros: I would normally be giving my undivided attention to the NFL on Sunday, but I will be monitoring this game as I can’t resist an anti-swagger play against the Astros, who had their 6-game winning streak snapped on Saturday by the A’s. The A’s are + 300 dogs for the full game with lightly used left-hander Ken Waldichuk (0-1, 15 innings, 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) going against Houston’s Framber Valdez (15-5, 179.2 innings, 2.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), but we’re just asking Waldichuk to get us 5 innings and keep us close as we try to cash another big ticket (regular readers will recall the Reds 1st 5 + 230 on Friday). Followers might also shop around for a + 0.5 line or I even saw + 1.5 runs -105 in the 1st 5 at BetMGM.
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of “Tuley’s Takes Today,” which is where we continue our popular, long-running NFL column where I give my “takes” on every game on the schedule each week.
As I wrote in the intro last week, I’ve written this column the last five seasons in VSiN’s digital online magazine, “Point Spread Weekly,” but we’ve rearranged how we provide our content to VSiN subscribers and we’re combining my weekly column into these daily columns so we can offer fresher opinions without the earlier “print” deadline (and we’ll keep it at the bottom of our columns throughout the weekend and be able to update our recommended wagers in case there are changes in the lines due to injuries, COVID issues, weather or any other reason, including plain market movements). As a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, I was disappointed that I didn’t have more success in NFL Week 1 as faves and dogs split 8-8 ATS, so there were plenty of dogs out there but I just happened to land on mostly the wrong ones as I went 1-3 ATS with my Best Bets in last week’s column (the win was on the Steelers because they got to + 7 later in the week but I lost with the Patriots, Cardinals and Raiders. I did manage to go 2-3 in my major handicapping contests as I used the Vikings + 1.5 in the Westgate SuperContest and the Texans + 7 in the Circa Sports Million, but that was still disappointing. In addition, we’ve had a lot of success over the years, including last year, with 2-team, 6-point NFL teasers, but we lost our “key” play on the Rams + 8.5 in the Thursday night opener vs. the Bills and then lost my two teaser plays on Sunday: Ravens -1/Colts -1 as the Colts tied the Texans 20-20 and the Vikings + 7.5/Cowboys + 8.5 as the Cowboys were routed 19-3 by the Buccaneers. Hopefully we learned some valuable lessons in Week 1, and while we don't want to overreact to everything we saw in the openers, we can apply what we learned in Week 2. Without further ado, here come my “takes.” THURSDAYLos Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
We’ve got a great game on Thursday night (well, we thought we also had one last week with Bills-Rams, but the Bills turned that into a laugher). The line opened Chiefs -3 and has been up to -4 mostly due to the Chiefs’ 44-21 rout of the Cardinals, which is fine by me as I’ve already gone on record in saying that I think the AFC West is the best division this year and I’ll probably be on just about any team getting more than a field goal in divisional play. It didn’t work out last week with my play on the Raiders, though they had their chances, but I’ll take the Chargers as they’re pretty much a coin-flip vs. the Chiefs to win the division. I actually have them rated better with the Chiefs losing Tyreek Hill, though Patrick Mahomes sure didn’t look like he missed him with 5 TD passes last week). Regardless, + 4 looks like value to me in a game that could be decided by a field goal either way.
Best Bet: Chargers + 4 (pool play: Chargers in all of my rare SU and ATS contests that use Thursday night football).
SUNDAYMiami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
The Dolphins are a little tempting here off their impressive 20-7 win over the Patriots, but this number seems a little short to me. The Ravens were even better in their 24-9 win at the Jets yet this line has only been as high as 4? Still, I guess some think that’s enough as it’s bet down by half a point, but I’ll pass.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
The Browns gutted out a Week 1 victory over the Panthers as they showed they would at least be superior to the also-rans in the league before Deshaun Watson is able to return. There’s no reason to think Jacoby Brissett and Co. won't be able to take care of the Jets as Joe Flacco did look as mediocre as feared against his former team and I’m not getting enough points to back him here.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS pools and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
The Lions were getting dominated by the Eagles, but just like so many times last year, they battled back and got the back-door cover in a 38-35 loss as 4-point home dogs (they were 3-13-1 SU last season but among the best bets in the league at 11-6 ATS). However, they’re now in the role of favorites and I’d have to pass for anyone thinking of laying the short number. The Commanders rallied to win and cover in 28-22 win vs. the Jaguars as Carson Wentz (27-for-41, 313 yards, 4 TDs) spread the ball all around but it wasn’t impressive enough to get me to call for the upset here, but I’ll tease the Commanders up to + 8.5 () and use in my portfolio of 2-team, 6-point teasers along with the Saints + 8.5 vs. the Buccaneers, Panthers + 8.5 vs. the Giants, Steelers + 7 vs. the Patriots, Bengals -2 at the Cowboys and Vikings + 8.5 at the Eagles.
Best Bet: Commanders in teasers if available (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests but Lions slightly more in SU pools, though close to 50/50).
Indianapolis Colts (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts’ opening-game struggles against the Texans (result in a 20-20 tie as 7-point favorites) reminded me of their Week 1 loss at the Jaguars two years ago. Frank Reich just can’t get these Colts to break from the gate. The Jaguars showed a little life before getting run over by the Commanders, but I’m not quite getting enough points to feel comfortable with the Jaguars here ().
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cots 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 70/30 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
I mentioned on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night (the game was off-the-board because the Bucs had just played the Cowboys on SNF) that the Saints’ have Tom Brady’s number and I was hoping to get the Saints around + 4 since I had seen some books around that number or just slightly lower before kickoff. The Saints swept the Bucs last year, so the secret is out as the line has already been bet down to 2.5. Instead, we’ll have this as our favorite option in our list of 2-team, 6-point teasers listed above (the “key” as I mentioned in the intro as I’ll use them with several other teams, especially the Panthers and Steelers in Sunday’s early session of games) .
Best Bet: Saints in teasers (pool play: Saints 60/40 in ATS contest and I’ll also go around Saints 55/45 in SU pools).