Thursday was another busy day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as it seemed my whole day was spent studying the past performances for this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup and then juggling my writing and editing while following Game 5 of the World Series and Thursday Night Football (thanks again to the wife for Amazon Prime).
My “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” column for today’s 5 BC races is HERE as we’ll post an even bigger file this afternoon for Saturday’s 9 BC races, including the Classic. This whole week is a labor of love with all my horse racing duties (we also edit/post the “Mr. Ed” picks and the other horse racing coverage on our dedicated page at VSiN.com/horses, so please check that out) added to all the sports going on at this time of year. If you think this is a lot of work I’m juggling, it’s nothing compared to the years when the World Series of Poker would hold its “November Nine” for the Main Event final table this week, too. We’ll see how the horse racing picks end up doing, but all the hard work was worth it Thursday night as we won our Best Bet of the day on the Texans +14 as double-digit home underdogs vs. the Eagles as they jumped out to a 7-0 and were never behind by more than the spread to cover in their 29-17 loss. We did, however, lose our Phillies bets in Game 5 and they’re on the brink of elimination after losing 3-2 to the Astros to fall behind 3-2. Let’s recap the rest of a busy Thursday and then look for a Best Bet on a relatively light Friday schedule. As has become our custom around here, we’ll then rerun our “takes” column from Wednesday in which we go over the entire NFL Week 9 card as we try to follow up on the TNF win.Thursday’s Recaps
NFL: Eagles beat Texans 29-17 on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 9, but did NOT cover after closing as 14-point road faves as the Eagles never led by more than the spread. The game went just Over the closing betting total of 45 points. Double-digit home dogs are 2-0 ATS this season with the Panthers’ 21-3 upset of the Buccaneers in Week 7 being the other.
More NFL: Faves lead 73-48-1 SU on the season with 2 game closing pick-’em, but dogs improved to 68-50-4 ATS (57.6%). Home teams dipped to 66-54-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games, but road teams improved to 62-55-4 ATS (53%). Unders dipped to 70-52-2 (57.3%) and primetime Unders dip to 15-10-1 (60%).
MLB: Astros (-148 road faves) beat Phillies 3-2 in pivotal Game 5 on Thursday night to take 3-2 lead in the World Series (game stayed Under the betting total of 7.5 runs). MLB dogs still lead 3-2 in the series. Road teams took a 3-2 lead. Unders improved to 3-1-1.
More MLB: Underdogs dipped to 20-18 overall in the playoffs with 1 game closing pick-'em. Home teams dipped to 22-17 overall. Unders improved to 20-17-2 overall in totals wagering.
NBA: Faves/dogs split 1-1 SU and ATS Thursday as the Magic (9.5-point home dogs, +345 on the money line) upset the Warriors 130-129 and the Nuggets (6.5-point road faves) covered in 122-110 win at the Thunder. Home/road teams also split 1-1 SU and ATS. Overs swept 2-0.More NBA: Faves 75-42 SU on the regular season with 2 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 58-52-7 ATS (52.7%). Home teams lead 74-45 SU and 61-51-7 ATS (54.5%). Overs improved to 64-52-3 (55.2%).
NHL: Dogs went 8-5 Thursday with biggest upsets by Predators (+210 at Flames), Blackhawks (+155 vs. Kings) and Kraken (+147 at Wild). Road teams went 9-4. Overs 7-5-1. On the season, faves lead 98-69 with 6 PKs. Home teams lead 93-78 with 2 neutral-site games. Overs lead 87-83-3.
Friday’s Takes
Boston College +10.5 vs. Duke: We don’t like anything on the NBA or NHL slates (of course, no NFL and a travel day in MLB), so we’re left with this home dog in college football. Boston College (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS) is pretty bad as it’s 1-3 SU and ATS as double-digit dogs, though the Eagles did upset Louisville 34-33 as 13.5-point road dogs. However, this is more of a play against Duke (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) not being used to being in the role of being a favorite and being asked too much to cover this big of a spread. The last time the Blue Devils were favored, they lost 23-20 at Georgia Tech as 3.5-point road chalk. I’m not expecting an outright upset here, but BC should be able to stay within single digits.
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. Regular readers should know the routine by now while we trust newbies will get up to speed with our “dog-or-pass” philosophy. We’re basically looking for the live dogs on each week’s card, but we know everyone isn’t as dogmatic as we are. We also have a lot of readers that play more chalk than we do, but they still check our “takes” each week because they feel that if I’m not able to make a case for an underdog, they see it as tacit approval to lay the points. To each his own. We’re just trying to help in any way we can! Last weekend, we had a rollercoaster ride as we won our Best Bet on the Packers + 11.5 (early in the week for our regular readers) and + 11 in their 27-17 loss at the Bills on Sunday Night Football, but went 2-3 ATS overall with our top plays. But the good news is we still had a winning weekend as we hit nearly all of our teaser plays, including Buccaneers + 7.5/Over 40 on Thursday Night Football (given out in last Wednesday’s original “takes” column). We then flipped to Ravens + 8/Over 40 on game day when there was a change of favorite and cashed both in the Ravens’ 27-22 victory. So it pays to check back for our daily updates. Without further ado, let’s go over the NFL Week 9 card. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still give my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. Philadelphia Eagles (-14) at Houston TexansI’ll just come right out and say that I believe parity is alive and well in today’s NFL and I'll be on all three double-digit underdogs this weekend, including the Jets + 13 vs. the Bills and Titans + 12.5 at the Chiefs. We know the Eagles have the league’s best record at 7-0 SU as the last undefeated team and Lions’ 1-6 record is the only one worse than the Texans’ 1-5-1. However, we still don’t think any NFL team should be two-TD faves vs. any other on any given Sunday (or Thursday night), plus double-digit dogs – while not the automatic play they once were – are 5-4 ATS far this season with the Panthers’ 21-3 Week 7 home win vs. the Buccaneers being the lone outright upset. In fact, double-digit home dogs (like the Texans here) are 1-0 SU and ATS. For those curious, 9.5-point dogs (just on the cusp of double-digits) are 2-2 ATS with the Steelers’ 20-18 Week 6 home win vs. the Bucs being the next-biggest upset. The Texans are a respectable 3-3-1 ATS and also covered in their lone game as a double-digit dog as they only lost 16-9 at the Broncos back in Week 2 as 10-point dogs. The Texans have been 7-point pups three times and are 2-1 ATS in those games as they tied the Colts 20-20 in the season-opener and beat the Jaguars outright, 13-6, in Week 5, so they’re used to sticking around in games with big spreads.
Best Bet: Texans + 14 (pool play: Texans in all my rare ATS contests using TNF, but Eagles in all my SU pools).
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-5.5)