Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the complete NFL schedule.
Week 10 was another successful day in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Underdogs had another winning week in the NFL by going 8-6 ATS against the consensus closing lines from the books here in Las Vegas (and note that includes the Steelers closing as 1-point home favorites after being a short dog all week), but we fared even better as we went 4-2 ATS in last week’s column with wins on Broncos-Titans Under 38.5, Packers +4 vs. Cowboys, Chargers +7.5 at 49ers and Commanders +11 vs. Eagles and losses on Texans +4.5 at Giants and Jaguars +9.5 at Chiefs (though we warned readers we needed +10 to bet it and didn’t get it, but we’ll take the loss here as we did use it in some contests). We also had another winner with Vikings +7.5 from Sunday night/Monday morning and hit our listed 2-team, 6-point teasers with Panthers +8.5/Lions +8.5, Seahawks +8.5/Lions +8.5 and Steelers +8.5/Lions +8.5 (we also recommended Cardinal s in teasers, so hopefully some readers cashed in there as well). I could go on and on about how well the “dog-or-pass philosophy” has been working this season, but you’re here for the picks, or maybe to see which dogs I’m unable to make a case for so you can bet the chalk. So, without further ado, let’s tackle the full NFL Week 11 card. Even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I’ll give my “pool play” strategies for those in contests where you have to pick every game. At the end, we’ll do an abbreviated version of our regular daily recaps on Tuesday night’s action (we hit our Best Bet on the biggest NFL dog of the day with the Sharks +240 over the Golden Knights) and then take a look at Wednesday’s betting card as we get ready for the weekend.Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3)
The Thursday nighter has lost some luster with the slow start by the Packers (4-6), but they are coming off their 31-28 come-from-behind win vs. the Cowboys as 5-point home dogs. I’ve done very well in Green Bay whether I’ve been fading them (Week 1 at Vikings, Week 5 vs. Giants, Week 7 vs. Jets and Week 9 at Lions) or backing them (Week 3 at Buccaneers, Week 8 at Bills as they covered +10.5 in a 27-17 loss and Week 10 at Cowboys). We’re back to fading them here with the Titans, who rebounded themselves from a slow (0-2) start as they’re 6-1 straight-up since then with the only loss at the Chiefs in Week 9, though they covered as 14-point dogs in the 20-17 loss, so they’ve covered seven straight. Tennessee mostly relies on a strong defense (No. 8 in scoring defense at 18.7 points per game) and RB Derrick Henry (second in NFL with 923 rushing yard), though QB Ryan Tannehill did return to the starting lineup and threw 2 TD passes in the 17-10 win vs . the Broncos that should be just the kind of low-scoring game that they’ll try to get into with the Packers here.
Best Bet: Titans +3 or better (pool play: Titans in all my rare contests that use the Thursday Night Football game).
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-12)
We gave this out on “The Greg Peterson’ Experience” on Sunday night and in Monday’s version of this column as we’ve said time and again this season that parity is alive and well even though the public perception out there is that there's a wide gap between the haves and have-nots. We feel validated by the fact that double-digits underdogs are 9-4 ATS against the closing line. The Ravens usually lead by double digits in every game, but their defense has given up a lot of leads this year. The Panthers are playing better despite trading away RB Christian McCaffrey and are coming off a mini-bye after upsetting the Falcons 25-15 in the Week 10 Thursday nighter. I actually like the move to start Baker Mayfield over the injured PJ Walker as I believe that gives them the best to cover.
Best Bet: Panthers +12 (pool play: Panthers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 90/10 in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-8)
I’m certainly tempted to fade the Bills again as I’ve cashed by going against them each of the last three weeks with the Packers, Jets and VIkings. As I’ve written before, they tend to play close games, but while Nick Chubb and the Browns’ running game give them a chance to shorten the game and stay close, I’m just not comfortable trusting Jacoby Brissett to keep up with Josh Allen, so I think this is a good spot to start our Week 11 teaser portfolio with 2-team, 6 point teasers. Now, while this is a “Wong teaser” (I like to call them “advantage teasers”) as we capture the key numbers of 3 and 7, moving the favorites down hasn't been as strong this season. Regardless, I’ll pair this with my preferred dog teasers on the Raiders +8.5 at the Broncos and Vikings 7.5 (DraftKings down to Cowboys -1 as of early Wednesday, but some books are still at 1.5). Another possibility is teasing the 49ers down from -8 to -2 vs. th e Cardinals in Mexico City on Monday night, though that’s a less-desirable play as I like the Cards as a live dog.
Best Bet: Bills -2/Raiders +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teaser and others (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 85/15 in SU pools).
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts
This is a similar situation to the Vikings last week when I took +7.5 on Sunday night and that disappeared when it was first reported that Allen wasn’t going to play. Later in the week in this column, I couldn’t give out the Vikings +3.5 in good conscience (with +7.5 in my proverbial pocket). This week, I gave out Colts +9.5 on Sunday night as I loved the value against an Eagles team that was undefeated at the time but was just 5-3-1 ATS with non-covering wins vs. the Lions, Cardinals and Texans. Of course, the Eagles went out on Monday Night Football and lost 32-21 to the Commanders, so this line has now been adjusted under a touchdown to Eagles -6.5. Personally, I’m not willing to bet on the Colts +6.5 when I already have +9.5 (and I don’t have to), but I’m left with a hard decision about whether to take them in my contests like the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest. I do like interim coach Jeff Saturday’ m ove to go back to Matt Ryan as the starting QB as it gives them the best chance to succeed. In fact, in last week’s column I wrote: “If Matt Ryan were to be put back into the starting QB job, I would be willing to take the points with the Colts, but not with Sam Ehlinger,” so my biggest regret of Week 10 was not taking the Colts. When it comes down to it, I’m probably going to take them in contests as regular readers will recognize this as an anti-swagger spot against the Eagles after having their 8-game losing streak snapped.
Best Bet: Colts +6.5 or higher even though we have better number in pocket (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests, but Eagles still ).
Washington Commanders (-3.5) at Houston Texans
This was looking like a game that most bettors would ignore in Week 11, but then the Commanders (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) upset the previously undefeated Eagles 32-21 on Monday Night Football to put themselves in the thick of the NFC wild-card race. QB Carson Wentz has missed the last four games with a broken finger (Week 6 vs. the Bears) and the Commanders have gone 3-1 with Taylor Heinicke leading upsets of the Packers, Colts and the Eagles, They were also beating the Vikings before losing 20-17 and pushing as 3-point home dogs. In fact, the Commanders are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games), so it’s no surprise that coach Ron Rivera said he wasn’t sure if Wentz would get his starting job back when he’s ready to return. The Commanders are also 2-0 SU and ATS when favored this season with wins over the Jaguars and Bears (note: we had them closing at pick-’em in their Week 2 loss at the Lions). The Texans (1-7-1 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) are worse than all those teams as the y’re No. 29 in total offense and No. 30 in total defense – the NFL’s only team that ranks in the bottom four of both categories – so this line appears to be short at Washington -3 or even -3.5, so we have to pass on the underdog Texas, especially as they let us down last week at the Giants.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3)
The Jets are coming off their bye after upsetting the Bills 20-17 as 10.5-point home favorites in Week 9. That’s the only game they’ve played since losing at home to these same Patriots, 22-17, in Week 8. That doesn’t give me much confidence to take them here at such a low number, especially after RB Rhamondre Stevenson had 143 yards from scrimmage against them in that earlier meeting and we also expect Bill Belichick to have the correct game plan on both sides of the ball as they’re coming off their bye week, too.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 70/30 in SU pools).