Saturday was an incredibly busy day with wall-to-wall college football along with NBA, NHL, UFC, etc.
And yet the NFL always seems to find its way into the headlines and it happened again Saturday with reports that Bills QB Josh Allen might end up starting this Sunday against the Vikings. That also had an impact on the high-end football contests here in Las Vegas and I included that in my “Circa contest update” (you can find that HERE) that I do each Saturday night after the consensus plays are released on VSiN’s “The Football Contest Show,” which I also made an appearance on with Brady Kannon and Mike Pritchard. I also went on “Sunday Bet Prep” with Matt Youmans to discuss the contests and give my Best Bets for the rest of NFL Week 10. As for my actual plays on Saturday, I went 1-2 ATS with my college football Best Bets as I won with Central Florida (+1.5 at Tulane) but lost on Louisville (+7 at Clemson) and North Texas (+6 at UAB), but fortunately hit with the biggest winning dog on the NHL card as the Blues (+185 on the money line and +1.5 -130 on the puck line) came through as a swagger play with a 3-2 win at the Golden Knights. Without further ado, let’s get to the rest of Saturday’s recaps and then give our Best Bets with the the current lines as of early Sunday morning (for instance, I gave out the Vikings +7.5 last Sunday night on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and in the Monday version of this column, but I wouldn’t recommend them at the current line of +6.5, especially with Allen possibly back in the lineup). As has become our custom here, we’ll then rerun our weekly Wednesday column (which replaces the one we used to do in “Point Spread Weekly”) in which we give our takes on the full NFL card.Saturday’s Recaps
NBA: Faves went 6-2 SU Saturday and 5-3 ATS as the Blazers (+5.5) covered in 117-112 loss at the Mavericks. The upsets were by the Wizards (+4 in 121-112 home win vs. the Jazz) and Nets (+1.5 in 110-95 win at Clippers). Home teams went 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS. Over/Unders split 4-4..
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 122-67 SU with 2 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 98-84-7 ATS (53.8%). Home teams improved to 117-74 SU and 98-86-7 ATS (53.3%). Overs maintained their slim overall lead in totals wagering at 95-93-3 (50.5%).
CFB: Arizona upset No. 12 UCLA late Saturday as 20-point underdog and +750 on the money line. No. 25 Washington (+12, +375 ML) also upset No. 6 Oregon to really turn the Pac-12 upside down. In other games between ranked teams, No. 9 Alabama (-11) beat No. 11 Mississippi 30-24 but didn’t cover, No. 22 UCF (+1) pulled 38-31 minor upset over No. 17 Tulane and No. 4 TCU (+7.5) beat No. 18 Texas, but it was also an upset.NHL: Faves went 9-4 with upsets by Blues (+180 at Golden Knights), Oilers (+145 at Panthers), Canadiens (+145 vs. Penguins) and Blackhawks (+125 at Ducks). Home teams went 8-5. Unders 10-3. On the season, faves lead 132-100 with 6 pick-'ems, home teams lead 126-108 with 4 neutral-site games and Unders took a 116-115-7 lead.
Sunday’s Takes
Seahawks +8.5/Lions +8.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser)
Jaguars +9.5 at Chiefs (but still holding out for +10) Texans +4.5 at Giants Packers +4 vs. Cowboys (hope everyone grabbed +4.5) Chargers +7.5 at 49ers (happy for the added “hook”) Monday: Commanders +11 vs. Eagles Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the complete NFL schedule. Week 9 was one of our best of the season as we went 3-1 ATS with our Best Bets on the Jets +11.5 vs. the Bills, Lions +3.5 vs. the Packers and Titans +12.5 at the Chiefs with the lone loss on the Panthers +7.5 at the Bengals. We also swept our 2-team, 6-point teasers, led by our top plays on Jaguars +8.5/Seahawks +8 and Seahawks +8/Rams +8.5. In addition, my Uncle Brent (Musburger) invited me to appear on his “Countdown to Kickoff” NFL pregame show at 9:45 a.m. PT Sunday to ask about my “dog-or-pass philosophy” in light of the fact dogs have been dominating. It was perfect timing as dogs went 7-4-2 ATS in Week 9 and completing the first half of the 18-week schedule at 74-54-6 ATS (57.8%). Musburger asked me for my top play and I went with the Lions (who were up to +4 at that time) and they pulled the 15-9 outright upset. I also gave out the Jets and Titans on the show, plus the Seahawks-Rams teaser in the “afternoon session,” going 4-0 overall. It just continues to show that parity is alive and well in the NFL, though we’re certainly trying to guard against getting too cocky or over-confident and trying to still be selective in finding the right dogs to back. Without further ado, let’s tackle the full NFL Week 10 card. Even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I’ll give my “pool play” strategies for those in contests where you have to pick every game.Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers
The surprising Falcons are 4-5 and tied for first place in the NFC South with the Buccaneers while the Panthers are just two games back at 2-7, but the perception of both teams is quite different as Carolina fired coach Matt Ruhle earlier in the season and traded away star RB Christian McCaffrey in a move that was viewed as giving up on this year and planning for the future. I could throw around a bunch of stats on both teams; however, the fact is they played just 11 days prior to this Thursday night’s game with the Falcons winning 37–34 in OT. That game was even more thrilling than the final score indicates as it looked like the Panthers were going to win on a late PJ Walker-to-D.J. Moore TD pass until Moore took off his helmet during his celebration in the end zone and the longer go-ahead PAT was missed. There’s no reason to believe this won’t come down to a one-score game again in Carolina. In fact, if Baker Mayfield (14-for-20, 155 yards, 2 TDs after su bbing for Walker last week vs. the Bengals) was starting, I would probably be taking the Panthers plus the points or on the money line, but we’ll settle for some 2-point, 6-point teasers to some games on Sunday. Lions +8.5 at the Bears is my favorite “advantage teaser” (aka “Wong teaser”) of the week that captures the key number of 3 and 7 as I gave out on my regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night). Other possibilities are the Seahawks +8.5 vs. the Buccaneers in Germany, Steelers +8.5 vs. the Saints and Cardinals +9 at the Rams.
Best Bet: Panthers +9/Lions +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Panthers in all my rare ATS contests that include Thursday Night Football, but just 67/33 in SU pools).
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) in Germany
As stated above, I like the Seahawks in teasers, either starting with the Panthers on Thursday night or kicking off our early-Sunday action as this game kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT with the aforementioned games later in the day. I’m also contemplating taking the spread with the Seahawks as we can certainly make the claim that the Buccaneers and Tom Brady are only favored here based on past reputation. The Seahawks are 6-3 and leading the NFC West and have been playing better than the Bucs all season. Of course, no matter how bad Brady is playing, he always seems to be around for a shot at the end — as we saw again last week as he pulled out a 20-17 win vs. the Rams out of his magic hat — so the safest play again appears to be the teaser.
Best Bet: Seahawks +8.5/Lions +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests but Buccaneers 55/45 in SU pools).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
The Chiefs (6-2) have won their last two games since losing to the Bills and are now the second-choice at 5-1 in Super Bowl futures at DraftKings. Patrick Mahomes has also become the 2-1 favorite to win MVP as he leads a KC offense that is No. 2 to the Bills averaging 415.3 yards per game and a league-high 30.4 point per game. The Jaguars, who rallied to beat the reeling Raiders 27-20 after not taking a bye week following their London trip, are improved in many ways in coach Doug Pederson’s first season, but they’re still just 3-6 and 3-6 ATS with an offense that ranks No. 8 at a surprisingly high 367.4 yards per game behind Trevor Lawrence, but a middle-of-the-road defense that allows 343.4 yards per game. For me, this comes down to the fact that the Chiefs usually let teams stick around (they’re just 3-5 ATS, including non-covering wins against the Chargers, Raiders and Titans just this past Sunday night). We can't help but think this line is going to be bet to double digits by the public, so we’ll wait for the line to reach its highest as DD dogs are coming off a 3-0 ATS week and 8-4 ATS on the season).
Best Bet: Pass for now, but waiting for Jaguars +10 or better (pool play: Jaguars 67/33 in ATS contests though Chiefs still 75/25 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at New York Giants (-6.5)