Tuley's Takes Today 10/9: Sunday Best Bets, including 'takes' on the full NFL Week 5 card

Saturday was a great sports betting day in the Tuley’s Takes office with wall-to-wall college football along with an MLB wild-card quadruple-header (and the 2nd game of the NHL regular season thrown in for good measure).

We lost our “Best Bets” in both CFB and MLB, but still ended up having a winning day overall.

In CFB, we lost East Carolina + 3.5 at Tulane in a 24-9 setback but won our next 3 biggest plays on North Carolina + 3.5% at Miami-Florida, Iowa + 4 at Illinois and Florida State + 3.5 at North Carolina State with the Tar Heels pulling a 27-24 outright upset while the Haweyes and Seminoles both covered in narrow SU losses.

In MLB, we lost our top play on the Cardinals 1st 5 + 104 vs. the Phillies as they trailed 2-0 after 5 innings and went on to lose 2-0, but we won with the Mariners + 155 as they rallied to beat the Blue Jays 10-9.

We also did our weekly “Circa contest update” at VSiN.com with the Top 5 plays from Circa Sports Million and Circa Survivor, along with recapping the CSM leaderboard and 1st Quarter prize winners. You can find that HERE.

Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s betting action and then turn our attention to Sunday’s NFL action as I’m passing on the Padres-Mets game.

Saturday’s Recaps

MLB: Guardians (-102 home dogs) beat Rays 1-0 in 15 innings for 2-0 sweep in best-of-3 wild-card round. Mariners (+ 155 road dog) rallied to beat Blue Jays 10-9 for 2-0 sweep. Phillies (-120 road faves) beat Cardinals 2-0 for 2-0 sweep. Mets (-174 home faves) beat Padres 7-3 to force decisive Game 3 on Sunday.

More MLB: Favorites/underdogs split 2-2 Saturday, but dogs lead 4-3 overall with 1 pick-'em (Phillies-Cardinals Game 1). Home/road teams also split 2-2 Saturday, but road teams lead 5-3. Over/Unders split 2-2 on Saturday, 4-4 overall.

CFB: No. 1 Alabama held off Texas A&M 24-20, but the Crimson Tide did NOT cover after closing as 24.5-point home favorite; the game stayed Under betting total of 48.5 points.

NHL: Predators beat Sharks 3-2 Saturday to sweep the “Global Series” in Prague to start the NHL regular season. The Predators won as -195 favorites (game stayed Under betting total of 6 goals). Faves start the season 2-0 while Unders also 2-0. Each team was designated the “home team” in one game apiece, but this was a neutral site and won’t be included in our home/road records.

Sunday’s Takes

Giants + 8.5 vs. Packers

Bengals + 3.5 -120 at Ravens

Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule.

For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to be the favorite.

Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites.

This approach has continued to work very well so far this season as dogs are 35-25-3 ATS (58.3 percent) vs. my Vegas consensus closing lines with 1 game closing pick’-em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2). Last week, dogs went 8-7-1 ATS.

Without further ado, let’s look at the NFL Week 5 card. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3.5 EVEN) 

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests, though Broncos 67/33 in my rare SU pools that use the TNF game). u

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (-8.5) in London

We successfully faded the Packers at home last week, and see no reason not to fade them again on a neutral field in London. Besides, Aaron Rodgers and his receivers still look in sync after not working much together in the offseason and preseason. Rodgers somehow rallied the Packers to beat the Patriots 27-24 in OT but they were never close to covering as 9.5-point faves. The Packers’ biggest weakness continues to be its run defense, and Giant RB Saquon Barkley comes in as the league’s leader with 463 rushing yards. QB Daniel Jones (ankle) is expected to be able to play, though the focus should be on letting Barkley run wild against the Packers’ D. 

Best Bet: Giants + 8.5 (pool play: Giants 67/33 in ATS contests, though Packers still 60/40 in SU pools).

Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)

As I wrote in my preview for the VSiN’s Betting Guide, the Saints are playing the week after a London game without taking the usual bye week. It’s a small sample as just 5 of the 60 teams that have played in London have opted out of an early bye, but those teams are 2-3 SU and 2-2-1 ATS, so they’re not an automatic fade. Both teams are coming off a wild Week 4 games as the Seahawks outlasted the Lions in a 48-45 shootout while the Saints lost 28-25 to the Vikings in a crazy finish with a double-doink off the left upright and crossbar on Will Lutz’s FG attempt to try to send the game to overtime. The Seahawks are tempting again as a dog, but I’m not able to pull the trigger as the Saints’ defense is better than it has shown so far. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are ranked No. 31 in total defense, allowing 428 yards per game. The lean is to the Over 45.5, but check the status of New Orleans’ walking wounded, including Winston, RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas.  

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)

I already gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and bet the + 7, but there are some books dealing the Jaguars -7 with added juice, so you might want to wait to see if we can get the hook at + 7.5. However, the Westgate SuperBook in Vegas has the juice on the Texans + 7, so we’re getting mixed signals and be sure to grab the full 7 if they start to disappear. This is basically a fade against the Jaguars in the role of favorite, plus the Texans have been competitive despite their 0-3-1 SU start as they’re 2-1-1 ATS and had rallied to get within the number against the Chargers before losing the cover late. Note: a lot of people will be looking to tease the Jaguars down to virtually pick-’em, but I feel that’s a risky play with them so unfamiliar in the role of favorites (see Lions’ loss as chalk last week).

Best Bet: Texans + 7 or better (pool play: Texans 67/33 in ATS contest, though Jaguars still 60/40 in SU pools).

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14)

Here’s another early bet I’ve already made on the Steelers + 14 as I think it’s been adjusted too high after being Bills -9.5 on the advance line last week and reopening -14 on Sunday afternoon. The Bills are certainly capable of blowing teams out, but they’ve played close games the last two weeks (loss at Dolphins, narrow win at Ravens). While the Steelers aren’t as good as those teams, parity still exists in the NFL and their defense should keep this relatively close (and I trust Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin to have a game plan to contain Buffalo QB Josh Allen) and rookie Kenny Pickett should be better prepared with a full week of reps with the first team. He already seems to have a good rapport with fellow rookie George Pickens.

Best Bet: Steelers + 14 (pool play: Steelers 75/25 in ATS contests, though Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).

  
Read Full Article