Thursday felt like a weird day in the Tuley’s Takes home office with no baseball games after the MLB regular season ended on Wednesday (I must say I liked that after the traditional closing day on Sundays and competing with the NFL).
We spent part of it editing/posting some articles on our VSiN.com website. Thursdays are also a day when I put my plays in for a lot of contests and also take care of some errands/chores before the madness of the weekend. Some of that time involved helping my wife put up Halloween decorations as that’s our favorite holiday (note: it’s truly my wife’s favorite holiday, but it’s grown on me as it involves a lot of family traditions we’ve had while the kids were growing up). All of that helped me get through my withdrawals with no MLB action, but what really made me feel the best was adding Colts-Broncos Under 42 as my Best Bet of the day in yesterday’s column. That was never in doubt as neither team scored a TD on Thursday Night Football in the Colts’ 12-9 OT win. Let’s recap Thursday night’s betting action (well, that’s just about it LOL), but also update our season-long NFL betting stats, as well as the MLB regular-season betting stats with the playoffs starting on Friday. We’ll also give our Best Bets on Friday’s MLB quadrupleheader and then update our 3,000-word Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 5 card. Note: the NHL season starts Friday and I know a lot of my loyal readers enjoyed the profits we had with betting 1st Period Overs last winter and spring, but even though I feel better prepared for the season than ever before because of our NHL Betting Guide led by Andy McNeil, I’m not going to have daily NHL plays for a while (however, I’m sure I’ll jump in with some from time to time, so be sure to check these columns every day). Thursday’s RecapsNFL: Colts rallied in regulation and then beat Broncos 12-9 in OT to kick off Week 5 on Thursday Night Football. The Colts did it after closing as 3.5-point road underdogs and + 150 on the money line. The game stayed waaaay Under the betting total of 42 points with no touchdowns and 7 field goals.
More NFL: Favorites dipped to 36-27-1 SU with 1 pick-'em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2) and dogs improved to 36-25-3 ATS (59 percent). Home teams are now 33-30-1 SU with 1 neutral-site game (Vikings-Saints in London) while road teams took 31-30-3 ATS lead. Unders improved to 38-26-1 (59.5 percent) while primetime Unders improved to 10-4 (71.4 percent).
More MLB (ICYMI): Faves finished the regular season at 1,450-943 SU (60.6 percent) with 37 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; but faves were well ahead of that pace all year and finished well over 60 percent). Home teams finished 1,295-1,133 (53.3 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but had been on the rise late in season). Unders finished 1,189-1,113-123 (51.7 percent).
Friday’s Takes
Cardinals 1st 5 + 100 vs. Phillies: I’ll continue to list my playoff plays as 1st 5 wagers as that’s what we’ve had the most success with the past 3 months, though I’m also betting the full-game ML in most cases. The Cardinals were also very good to us last September, as well as this summer, and I also have them at 25-1 to win the World Series and will be backing them anytime as dogs for as long as they stay alive. We’ll count on Jose Quintana (6-7, 2.93 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) to keep them in Game 1, especially as he has a 0.61 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Rays 1st 5 + 108 at Guardians: I usually don’t back a team on a 5-game losing streak like the Rays, but I feel this line is set with a lot of recency bias as the Guardians were clearly playing better down the stretch. However, I think the Rays still have more playoff experience and I’ll take Shane McClanahan (12-8, 2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) in Game 1.
Other MLB series: Just a few “takes” or “non-takes” as I’m not a big Yu Darvish fan, so I’ll pass on the Padres at the Mets in Game 1 but will likely be on them in Game 2, plus also side with the favored Blue Jays over the Mariners.
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to be the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has continued to work very well so far this season as dogs are 35-25-3 ATS (58.3 percent) vs. my Vegas consensus closing lines with 1 game closing pick’-em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2). Last week, dogs went 8-7-1 ATS. Personally, I went 2-0 ATS with my two top plays – Titans + 3.5 at Colts and Patriots + 9.5 that I gave out on my regular spot at 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and in these columns all week. Unfortunately, my second tier of plays didn’t fare as well as I went 2-3 ATS in the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest with my individual entries, though I did go 3-2 ATS with a group entry (ViewFromVegas-2) that is off to a nice start at 13-7 in Circa Sports Million. Without further ado, let’s look at the NFL Week 5 card. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. And, after we’re done, we’ll end the column with our regularly scheduled recaps of Tuesday night’s betting action and some plays for Wednesday as the MLB regular season draws to a close. Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3.5 EVEN)The Thursday nighter looked like a much better matchup before the season started. The Broncos are off to a 2-2 start in Russell Wilson’s first season in Denver and the offense is ranked No. 21 at just 335.8 yards per game. Wilson was listed as questionable, but he insists he’s going to play. It’s tempting to take the Colts + 3.5, but they’re off to an even more disappointing start at 1-2-1, including a tie at the Texans in Week 1. Surprisingly, their only win so far was against the Chiefs, the best team they’ve faced, so the potential is still there. I was thinking the Under is the play (especially as both teams rank in the Top 6 in total defense), but the oddsmakers have the total relatively low at 43 points. Besides, with the Broncos losing top RB Javonte Williams for the season and Indy RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) in a walking boot earlier this week, both teams might be looking to air it out more..
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests, though Broncos 67/33 in my rare SU pools that use the TNF game).
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (-8.5) in LondonWe successfully faded the Packers at home last week, and see no reason not to fade them again on a neutral field in London. Besides, Aaron Rodgers and his receivers still look in sync after not working much together in the offseason and preseason. Rodgers somehow rallied the Packers to beat the Patriots 27-24 in OT but they were never close to covering as 9.5-point faves. The Packers’ biggest weakness continues to be its run defense, and Giant RB Saquon Barkley comes in as the league’s leader with 463 rushing yards. QB Daniel Jones (ankle) is expected to be able to play, though the focus should be on letting Barkley run wild against the Packers’ D.
Best Bet: Giants + 8.5 (pool play: Giants 67/33 in ATS contests, though Packers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
As I wrote in my preview for the VSiN’s Betting Guide, the Saints are playing the week after a London game without taking the usual bye week. It’s a small sample as just 5 of the 60 teams that have played in London have opted out of an early bye, but those teams are 2-3 SU and 2-2-1 ATS, so they’re not an automatic fade. Both teams are coming off a wild Week 4 games as the Seahawks outlasted the Lions in a 48-45 shootout while the Saints lost 28-25 to the Vikings in a crazy finish with a double-doink off the left upright and crossbar on Will Lutz’s FG attempt to try to send the game to overtime. The Seahawks are tempting again as a dog, but I’m not able to pull the trigger as the Saints’ defense is better than it has shown so far. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are ranked No. 31 in total defense, allowing 428 yards per game. The lean is to the Over 45.5, but check the status of New Orleans’ walking wounded, including Winston, RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)I already gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and bet the + 7, but there are some books dealing the Jaguars -7 with added juice, so you might want to wait to see if we can get the hook at + 7.5. However, the Westgate SuperBook in Vegas has the juice on the Texans + 7, so we’re getting mixed signals and be sure to grab the full 7 if they start to disappear. This is basically a fade against the Jaguars in the role of favorite, plus the Texans have been competitive despite their 0-3-1 SU start as they’re 2-1-1 ATS and had rallied to get within the number against the Chargers before losing the cover late. Note: a lot of people will be looking to tease the Jaguars down to virtually pick-’em, but I feel that’s a risky play with them so unfamiliar in the role of favorites (see Lions’ loss as chalk last week).
Best Bet: Texans + 7 or better (pool play: Texans 67/33 in ATS contest, though Jaguars still 60/40 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14)
Here’s another early bet I’ve already made on the Steelers + 14 as I think it’s been adjusted too high after being Bills -9.5 on the advance line last week and reopening -14 on Sunday afternoon. The Bills are certainly capable of blowing teams out, but they’ve played close games the last two weeks (loss at Dolphins, narrow win at Ravens). While the Steelers aren’t as good as those teams, parity still exists in the NFL and their defense should keep this relatively close (and I trust Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin to have a game plan to contain Buffalo QB Josh Allen) and rookie Kenny Pickett should be better prepared with a full week of reps with the first team. He already seems to have a good rapport with fellow rookie George Pickens.
Best Bet: Steelers + 14 (pool play: Steelers 75/25 in ATS contests, though Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).