Friday was a pretty interesting day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office. We ran some errands before the weekend, including taking my 13-year-old son, Maddux to the dentist as he had the day off of school (Halloween is Nevada Day, to honor when Nevada was granted statehood in 1865, so there’s no school on the Friday before). The strangest thing was my little man’s voice started to change, which kinda freaked me out.
Anyway, a trip to the orthodontist is also in Maddux’s future, so it’s a good thing that I won my Best Bet of the day on the Phillies 1st 5 + 0.5 -115 as they fell behind 5-0 to the Astros but rallied to tie the game 5-5 through 5 innings and we cashed! We also pushed a 1st 5 money line bet, but the Phillies came through to win 6-5 in 10 innings to win a + 150 full-game moneyline wager and also gets our + 170 series bet off to a great start. We also won our top CFB play as ECU (+ 3 at BYU) not only covered but won outright, so that’ll help with the braces. Let’s recap the rest of Friday’ betting action, then look for more plays on Saturday in CFB and MLB. Then, as has become our custom here this season, we’ll rerun our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 8 card, including updates based on how the lines are moving.Friday’s Recaps
MLB: Phillies rallied from a 5-0 deficit to beat the Astros 6-5 in 10 innings late Friday night in Game 1 of the World Series. The Phillies did it as + 148 road underdogs (flew Over betting total of 6.5 runs). Dogs improved to 18-16 overall in the playoffs with 1 game closing pick-'em. Home teams dropped to 20-15 overall. Over/Unders back to .500 overall at 17-17-1.
CFB: East Carolina (+ 3) upset BYU 27-24 Friday night on field goal as time expired (stayed Under betting total of 64 points). Florida International (+ 6.5) upset Louisiana Tech 42-34 in 2OT (went Over total of 57 in OT after 54 points were scored in regulation).
NBA: Faves went 6-5 SU and ATS Friday with upsets by Cavaliers (+ 7 at Celtics), Pacers (+ 5 at Wizards), Spurs (+ 4 vs. Bulls), 76ers (+ 3.5 at Raptors) and Magic (+ 1.5 vs. Hornets). The Lakers ( 8 at Timberwolves) lost to start the season 0-5 SU and ATS. Home teams went 7-4 SU and ATS. Overs 7-4.More NBA: Faves lead 52-26 SU on the regular season with 2 pick-’ems, while dogs still hold a narrow lead at 37-36-5 ATS (50.7%). Home teams lead 48-32 SU and 40-35-5 ATS (53.3%). Overs improved to 41-36-3 (53.2%).
NHL: Faves/dogs split 3-3 Friday with upsets by Canucks (+ 170 vs. Penguins), Islanders (+ 167 at Hurricanes) and Devils (+ 110 vs. Avalanche). Home/road teams also 3-3. Unders 5-1. Faves lead 73-47 on the season with 6 pick-’ems. Home teams lead 70-54 with 2 neutral-site games. Unders increased slim lead to 65-60-1.
Saturday’s Takes
Notre Dame + 1.5 at Syracuse: Just like our ECU winner on Friday night, our CFB Best Bets on Saturday are basically dogs that we feel should be favored or we think have a great chance at an outright upset.
Middle Tennessee State + 2.5 at UTEP: Ditto. Oklahoma State + 1.5 at Kansas State: OSU is coming off a big win over Texas while K-State might have a letdown after losing to TCU in a big game last week. Phillies 1st 5 + 0.5 + 120 at Astros: We’re playing with house money, so let’s do this again with Zack Wheeler vs. Framber Valdez (note: that’s + 120 price was offshore while most other books didn’t have 1st 5 lines posted overnight; we’ll update in the morning if that line is off).Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule.
Our “dog-or-pass” approach has worked well so far this season thanks to dogs going 59-44-3 ATS (57.3%). We went 3-3 ATS with our Best Bets in Week 7 with wins on the Giants + 3 at the Jaguars, Buccaneers + 13 vs. the Buccaneers and Seahawks + 5 at the Chargers as all three not only covered but pulled outright upsets. We lost on the Lions + 7 at the Cowboys, Falcons + 6.5 at the Bengals and Texans + 7 at the Raiders. The 3-3 ATS mark made sense as faves/dogs split 7-7 ATS overall on the weekend, though we were disappointed to miss the upsets by the Commanders over the Packers and Bears over the Patriots. Without further ado, let’s go over the NFL Week 8 card. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Tampa Bay BuccaneersThe Thursday nighter gives us a matchup of co-division leaders, but both the Ravens (4-3) and Buccaneers (3-4) are seen as teams off to disappointing starts. Tom Brady is arguably at the low point of his career after the Bucs’ 21-3 loss to the Panthers as 13-point road favorites after managing just a field goal. That dropped Tampa Bay to No. 22 in the NFL in total offense at just 330.6 yards per game and No. 17 in scoring offense at just 17.7 points per game. The Ravens’ problems aren’t on the offensive side of the ball as Lamar Jackson is playing like the former MVP that he is, but the defense is ranked No. 23 and that doesn’t even tell the whole story as Baltimore has blown three double-digit leads in the fourth quarter. With that in mind, we expect this to be another close game, so we can’t pass up the Buccaneers in 2-team, 6-point teasers as we can move them through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to + 7.5. We’ll start a couple of teasers to game s on Sunday (Saints + 8 vs. Raiders, Jets + 7.5 vs. Patriots and Rams + 7.5 vs. 49ers are the top options as of this writing). For our purposes on Thursday night, let’s go with Buccaneers + 7.5/Over 39 similar to what we did last Thursday when we cashed in on Saints + 8.5/Over 38 when the Saints lost to the Cardinals in a 42-34 shootout but got in the back door to win our teaser.
Best Bet: Buccaneers + 7.5/Over 39, plus other 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: split pretty much 50/50 in my rare SU and ATS contest that use Thursday night games, slight lean to the Bucs).
Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) in LondonSet your alarm to get up early Sunday as we have another game from London. As of Tuesday night, it wasn’t officially announced if Russell Wilson will return to the lineup. Considering this line was as high as Jaguars -4.5 and has been bet down to 2.5, I’m guessing someone knows (or is speculating heavily) that Wilson is going to play. Coach Nathaniel Hackett said that the decision could come on Wednesday. If Wilson does play (and Denver still remains a dog), I think the Broncos are teasable along with the Saints, Jets and Rams as mentioned above. Just like last week when I faded the Jaguars with the Giants, I’m not so sure Jacksonville should be favored at all, especially on a neutral field.
Best Bet: Broncos + 8.5/Saints + 8, plus other 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in both SU and ATS contests).
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9)
The Cowboys, who beat the Lions 24-6 in Dak Prescott’s return on Sunday, opened as 10-point home favorites in this game, though it was adjusted down to 9 at most books after the Bears’ shocking 33-14 upset of the Patriots on Monday Night Football. I was bummed that I didn’t back my hometown Bears as I was with most other bettors that didn’t think they would be able to beat the Patriots (or even cover as 8.5-point dogs). However, I also don’t think I’ll be pulling the trigger in this game either. While Justin Fields and the Bears offense performed better than expected against a strong Patriots defense (which shut out the Lions in Week 5 and held the Browns to 15 points in Week 6), the Cowboys’ defense is even better.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 90/10 in SU pools).
Las Vegas Raiders (-2) at New Orleans Saints