Wednesday was a unique day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we didn’t have a single bet the whole day. We don’t believe that’s happened since the day after the MLB All-Star Game in July, right?
As I mentioned in Wednesday’s column, I didn’t like any underdogs in the NBA or NHL (and MLB is still on hiatus until Friday to start the World Series and there were no CFB games either). But as I Tweeted out from my @ViewFromVegas account, I felt very good about my “dog-or-pass approach” as favorites went a combined 12-0 in the NBA and NHL last night with 1 game graded pick-'em!!! As you’ll see in the recaps below, there were 3 dogs that did cover in the NBA, but the fact remains that it would have been very hard to find those rare winning dogs, so again we’ll tip our cap to the ole “dog-or-pass” as it saved us money. Let’s recap the chalky day and then welcome back football for our Best Bet on Thursday. Then, as has become our custom here this season, we’ll rerun our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 8 card.Wednesday’s Recaps
NBA: Faves went a perfect 9-0 SU with 76ers-Raptors closing pick-'em (note: some books closed TOR -1, so you could say 10-0, though some had PHI -1, so others could say 9-1). Faves just 6-3 ATS as Pistons (+ 7.5 vs. Hawks), Hornets (+ 7.5 at Knicks) and Rockets (+ 8.5 at Jazz) covered in SU losses. Home teams went 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS while Unders led 6-4.
More NBA: Faves improved to 43-20 SU after 9 days of the regular season with 2 games closing pick-’em, while dogs still lead 31-27-5 ATS (53.4%). Home teams improved to 39-26 SU and took 31-29-5 ATS lead. Over/Unders now tied 31-31-3.
NHL: Faves also went a perfect 3-0 on Wednesday as Islanders (-153 vs. Rangers), Oilers (-115 at Blues) and Lightning (-145 at Ducks) all won and covered -1.5 puck line. Road teams went 2-1. Unders swept 3-0. On the season, faves lead 65-39 with 6 games closing pick-’em, home teams lead 62-46 with 2 neutral-site games while Unders took 56-53-1 lead.
Thursday’s Take
2-team, 6-point teaser on Ravens + 8/Over 39.5: As you’ll see in our Wednesday column below, we actually gave out the Buccaneers’ side at + 7.5 on this game as they were 1.5-point dogs at most books on late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. However, the line flipped on Wednesday as we had a change of favorites in this game to the Bucs -1 and now -2 as of early Thursday morning, so teasing the Ravens is now the preferred play (note: if you went ahead and bet the original wager using the Bucs, you would now have a 15-point middle to shoot at.
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule.
Our “dog-or-pass” approach has worked well so far this season thanks to dogs going 59-44-3 ATS (57.3%). We went 3-3 ATS with our Best Bets in Week 7 with wins on the Giants + 3 at the Jaguars, Buccaneers + 13 vs. the Buccaneers and Seahawks + 5 at the Chargers as all three not only covered but pulled outright upsets. We lost on the Lions + 7 at the Cowboys, Falcons + 6.5 at the Bengals and Texans + 7 at the Raiders. The 3-3 ATS mark made sense as faves/dogs split 7-7 ATS overall on the weekend, though we were disappointed to miss the upsets by the Commanders over the Packers and Bears over the Patriots. Without further ado, let’s go over the NFL Week 8 card. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Tampa Bay BuccaneersThe Thursday nighter gives us a matchup of co-division leaders, but both the Ravens (4-3) and Buccaneers (3-4) are seen as teams off to disappointing starts. Tom Brady is arguably at the low point of his career after the Bucs’ 21-3 loss to the Panthers as 13-point road favorites after managing just a field goal. That dropped Tampa Bay to No. 22 in the NFL in total offense at just 330.6 yards per game and No. 17 in scoring offense at just 17.7 points per game. The Ravens’ problems aren’t on the offensive side of the ball as Lamar Jackson is playing like the former MVP that he is, but the defense is ranked No. 23 and that doesn’t even tell the whole story as Baltimore has blown three double-digit leads in the fourth quarter. With that in mind, we expect this to be another close game, so we can’t pass up the Buccaneers in 2-team, 6-point teasers as we can move them through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to + 7.5. We’ll start a couple of teasers to game s on Sunday (Saints + 8 vs. Raiders, Jets + 7.5 vs. Patriots and Rams + 7.5 vs. 49ers are the top options as of this writing). For our purposes on Thursday night, let’s go with Buccaneers + 7.5/Over 39 similar to what we did last Thursday when we cashed in on Saints + 8.5/Over 38 when the Saints lost to the Cardinals in a 42-34 shootout but got in the back door to win our teaser.
Best Bet: Buccaneers + 7.5/Over 39, plus other 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: split pretty much 50/50 in my rare SU and ATS contest that use Thursday night games, slight lean to the Bucs).
Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) in LondonSet your alarm to get up early Sunday as we have another game from London. As of Tuesday night, it wasn’t officially announced if Russell Wilson will return to the lineup. Considering this line was as high as Jaguars -4.5 and has been bet down to 2.5, I’m guessing someone knows (or is speculating heavily) that Wilson is going to play. Coach Nathaniel Hackett said that the decision could come on Wednesday. If Wilson does play (and Denver still remains a dog), I think the Broncos are teasable along with the Saints, Jets and Rams as mentioned above. Just like last week when I faded the Jaguars with the Giants, I’m not so sure Jacksonville should be favored at all, especially on a neutral field.
Best Bet: Broncos + 8.5/Saints + 8, plus other 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in both SU and ATS contests).
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9)
The Cowboys, who beat the Lions 24-6 in Dak Prescott’s return on Sunday, opened as 10-point home favorites in this game, though it was adjusted down to 9 at most books after the Bears’ shocking 33-14 upset of the Patriots on Monday Night Football. I was bummed that I didn’t back my hometown Bears as I was with most other bettors that didn’t think they would be able to beat the Patriots (or even cover as 8.5-point dogs). However, I also don’t think I’ll be pulling the trigger in this game either. While Justin Fields and the Bears offense performed better than expected against a strong Patriots defense (which shut out the Lions in Week 5 and held the Browns to 15 points in Week 6), the Cowboys’ defense is even better.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 90/10 in SU pools).
Las Vegas Raiders (-2) at New Orleans Saints
Out of our suggested teaser plays in Week 8, I think I like this one the best. While the Raiders looked much better coming out of their bye week in their 38-20 win at Houston, it was still the Texans, who are No. 31 in total defense. The New Orleans defense (ranked No. 14) should put up a better fight and the Saints have the No. 3 offense behind only the Bills and Chiefs and should match the Raiders score for score whether it’s Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton or Taysom Hill under center. Our preferred teaser in Sunday’s early games (meaning the 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT kickoffs) is with the Jets.
Best Bet: Saints + 8/Jets + 7.5, plus other 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests, but Raiders still 55/45 in SU pools).
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Believe it or not, this game could be for the NFC South lead if the Buccaneers lose Thursday night to the Ravens. The Falcons (3-4) are tied with Tampa Bay at the top of the division while the Panthers (2-5) are just one game back after upsetting the Bucs 21-3 as 13-point home underdogs this past Sunday despite trading star RB Christian McCaffrey three days prior and everyone believing they had given up on the season. The Falcons have been overachieving all season as their 35-17 loss to the Bengals was the first game they didn’t cover against the spread with three upsets and three covers in straight-up losses. The Falcons opened as 6.5-point home favorites, which is usually not a good spot for teams that are used to being dogs (see recent examples of Lions and Jaguars), and early action has come in on the Panthers. RBs D’Onta Foreman (116 rushing yards, two receptions) and Chubba Hubbard (63 rushing yards, TD, two catches) more than made up for the loss of McCaffrey wh ile QB PJ Walker (16-for-22, 177 passing yards, two TDs) hit enough key throws to upset the Bucs, though the Panthers are still dead-last in the NFL at 271.9 yards per game. The Falcons, for all their relative success, are No. 30 in total defense, so we feel this line is a little inflated (the advance line from the summer was around pick-’em or Falcons -1). We expect the Panthers to be in this the whole way and we don’t think anyone will be shocked if they pull another upset.
Best Bet: Panthers + 4.5 (pool play: Panthers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Falcons 55/45 in SU pools).