Saturday was an incredibly fun, busy, exciting day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.
Obviously, we had tons of sports betting action with wall-to-wall college football, two MLB playoff games and busy schedules in the NBA and NHL. Personally, Saturday was also my family’s annual Halloween party at the Tuley Haunted Mansion in North Las Vegas with 30 of our friends that (it’s mostly my wife’s production; I air-fry a bunch of chicken nuggets, corn dogs and pizza rolls and play host – while trying to slyly follow my games). Oh, and I also did my “Circa contest update” on the top plays from contestants in Circa Sports Million and Circa Survivor. You can check that out HERE and we’ll be tracking the weekend results on our Twitter feed @ViewFromVegas as well as in these daily “Tuley’s Takes Today” columns. As for my own wagers on Saturday, we won our Best Bets of the day on the Astros 1st 5 + 5 -115 and 1st 5 + 130 as they led the Yankees 2-0 through 5 innings on the way to a 5-0 victory. Unfortunately, my college football action didn’t help pay for the festivities as I went 1-4 ATS with our best bets as we only won with Oklahoma State but lost with Kansas State, Utah State, UCLA, Oklahoma State and Mississippi. But, as has been the case most of the football season, we’re excited about putting CFB behind us and concentrating on the NFL on Sunday, so let’s get to our recaps of Saturday’s action, including updating our season-long stats (playoff-long stats in the case of MLB) and then list our Best Bets for Sunday (based on current lines) before re-running our “takes” column on the full NFL card, including updates in italics. Note: we’re passing on Sunday’s MLB dogs with the Padres/Darvish trying to avoid elimination and the Astros going for a sweep. Saturday’s RecapsMLB: Phillies (short -110 home faves) beat Padres 10-6 to take a 3-1 lead in the NLCS (game flew Over the betting total of 8 runs). Earlier, Astros (+ 130 road dogs) shut out Yankees 5-0 to take 3-0 lead in ALCS (stayed Under low total of 6.5). So, faves/dogs, home/road and Over/Under all split 1-1 on the day. Favorites lead 4-3 in LCS round, but dogs still lead 16-15 lead overall with 1 game closing pick-'em. Home teams lead 5-2 in this round and 19-13 overall. Unders lead 5-2 in this round and 17-14-1 overall
NBA: Faves went 7-1 SU with Pistons-Pacers closing pick-’em, but dogs somehow led 5-3 ATS as four dogs covered in SU losses: Magic (+ 8.5 in 126-120 loss vs. Celtics), Raptors (+ 3.5 in 112-109 loss at Heat), Thunder (+ 9 in 122-117 loss at Nuggets) and Kings (+ 2.5 in 111-109 loss vs. Clippers). Lone outright upset was by the Spurs (+ 13 in 114-105 win at 76ers). Homes teams 5-4 SU and ATS while Overs went 7-2.
More NBA: After 5 days of the regular season, faves lead 25-10 SU, but dogs still lead 17-14-4 ATS with 1 PK. Home teams lead 19-17 SU, while road teams dipped to 19-13-4 ATS. Overs took 19-14-3 lead.
NHL: Faves went 8-4 Saturday with Wild-Bruins closing pick-’em. The upsets were by the Flyers (+ 180 in 3-1 win at Predators), Sabres (+ 145 in 5-1 win at Canucks. Road teams led 7-6 while Unders also led 7-6. On the season, faves lead 52-31 with 3 pick-’ems, home teams lead 49-35 with 2 neutral-site games and Overs still lead 48-37-1.
CFB: Saturday was a chalky day in the Top 25 with the biggest loss by a ranked team was LSU “upsetting” No. 7 Mississippi in game that closed pick-’em. The highest-ranked teams in action (No. 1 Georgia and No. 4 Michigan were idle), No. 2 Ohio State (-30 in 54-10 rout vs Iowa) and No. 3 Tennessee (-39 in 65-24 rout vs. Tennessee-Martin) both covered while No. 5 Clemson (-14) beat No. 14 Syracuse 27-21 but failed to cover.
More CFB: In other games between ranked teams, No. 6 Alabama (-21) covered in 30-6 win vs. No. 24 Mississippi State, No.. 8 TCU (-3) covered in 28-28 win vs. No. 17 Kansas State, No. 10 Oregon (-7) covered in 45-30 win vs. UCLA, but No. 11 Oklahoma State (+ 6.5) upset No. 20 Texas 41-34.
Sunday’s Takes
Lions + 6.5 at Cowboys: Any follower of ours should have grabbed the 7 earlier in the week.
Giants + 3 at Jaguars: I guess I’m on square side here, but still feel the wrong side is favored. Falcons + 6.5 at Bengals: Falcons (6-0 ATS) only team to cover every game so far this season. Panthers + 13 vs. Buccaneers: We know Christian McCaffrey is gone, but Bucs aren’t playing well enough to be laying this many points. Texans + 7 at Raiders: What I said about the Bucs also applies to Raiders. Seahawks + 5 at Chargers: The Chargers also fail often in the favorite’s role like this; Seahawks playing better than expected under Geno Smith. 2-team, 6-point teaser of the week: Colts + 8.5/Patriots -2. Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I also have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to bet the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has continued to work very well so far this season as dogs are 52-37-3 ATS (58.4%) vs. my Vegas consensus closing lines with 2 games closing pick’-em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2, Titans-Commanders in Week 5). Last week, faves went 8-6 SU but faves/dogs split 7-7 ATS with the Broncos the only ATS-covering dog that didn’t win outright. It was shaping up as an awesome Sunday as I won my first 3 Best Bets from this column on the Jets + 7.5 at the Packers, Falcons + 4.5 vs. the 49ers and Patriots + 2.5 at the Browns all not only covering but pulling outright upsets. It was setting up to be an epic day as the Panthers (+ 10 at the Rams) jumped out to an early lead, but unfortunately they couldn’t hold on as they not only lost but also failed to cover in a 24-10 loss. Then, on Sunday night, the Cowboys (+ 6.5) rallied to get within 20-17 of the Eagles but ended up losing 26-17 and failing to cover. We did hit our top 2-team, 6-point teasers on the Saints + 8/Seahawks + 8.5 and Chiefs + 8/Seahawks + 8.5, but it could have been so much better. We’ll try to find the same kind of live dogs this weekend. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2)After two straight Thursday night duds (the Colts’ 12-9 win at the Broncos in Week 5 and the Commanders’ 12-7 win at the Bears in Week 6), this week’s matchup at least has an intriguing storyline with DeAndre Hopkins returning from his 6-game PED suspension. The Cardinals’ offense has been woeful (ranked No. 16 at 346 yards per game) without him, especially in first halves. Arizona QB Kyler Murray is clearly better with Hopkins, but will the improvement be enough against a Saints team that needs this game just as much as the Cardinals as both teams are 2-4. As of deadline Tuesday night, it was still uncertain whether Jameis Winston would return or if Andy Dalton will get another start. Either way, the play is to tease the Saints up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. This line opened Cardinals -1.5 but has been steadily drifting higher, so tease + 2.5 up to + 8.5 if you can get it. There are several teasers to pair this with on Sunday (we’ll get to th ose in a bit), but for our purposes here, let’s use it with the Over 38.5 in this game.
Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Saints + 8.5/Over 38.5.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
I gave out the Lions as one of my early Best Bets for this week on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights, or 15 minutes into the archived version). This is partly a fade of the Cowboys, who might be throwing a rusty Dak Prescott back into the starting lineup, but it’s mostly a play on the Lions, who have been golden in the underdog role (11-6 ATS last year, 3-1 ATS this year with a loss the only time they were favored vs. the Seahawks). Granted, the Lions were shut out 29-0 at the Patriots in Week 5, but we’re counting on them to have used their much-needed bye week to get back on track as Jared Goff and the Lions were the top offensive team in the league through the first four weeks of the season and are still No. 2 at 411.8 yard per game and No. 3 with 28 points per game. In addition, we picked up a nice little tidbit from our VSiN colleague Steve Makinen’s “post-bye week” column as the Lions are 7-2- 1 SU and 9-1 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012.
Best Bet: Lions + 7 (pool play: Lions 67/33 in ATS contests – higher at 7.5, lower at 6.5 – though Cowboys still 70/30 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)This is another early game I gave out and bet I made right away as I was stunned that the red-hot Giants (5-1 SU and ATS) were this big of an underdog against the Jaguars (2-4 SU and ATS). Well, it wasn’t too much of a surprise as that’s around where the advance line was over the summer and up through last week, but I thought the Giants’ start and especially their upsets of the Packers and Ravens the past two weeks would have this line moving toward the G-men. In fact, I’m not sure the right team is favored as the Jaguars – as improved as they are – shouldn't be the chalk as the only time they’ve been put in the favorite’s role this season was two weeks ago when they lost 13-6 to the Texans as 7-point home favorites. The only thing I feared was that I would be on a public dog, which is usually the kiss of death, but I’m pot-committed here.