Friday was another exciting day with all the major sports in action as we got another big weekend started.
We won our Best Bet again with Phillies 1st 5 + 100 vs. Padres as the Phillies led 3-2 after 5 innings on the way to a 4-2 win in Game 3 of the NLCS. After originally thinking I would end up on the road underdogs in each game of that series, I’m glad I flipped to the HOME dog when oddsmakers installed the Padres as road chalk for Game 3. Without further ado, let’s get to all of our nightly recaps (since there are so many), then we’ll look for plays for Saturday (I already listed my college football plays for Saturday in Friday’s column) and of course update our Wednesday column – which we rerun every day through the weekend – with our “takes” on the rest of the NFL Week 7 card.Friday’s Recaps
MLB: Phillies ( 110 home underdogs) beat Padres 4-2 Friday night to take 2-1 lead in the NLCS (stayed Under the betting total of 7.5 runs). Favorites dipped to 3-2 in LCS round, dogs retake 15-14 lead overall with 1 game closing pick-'em. Home teams improved to 4-1 in this round and 18-12 overall. Unders improved to 4-1 in this round and 16-13-1 overall
NBA: Faves went 7-4 SU on Friday but just 5-4-2 ATS with pushes by the Wizards (-2 vs. Bulls) and Grizzlies (-7 at Rockets). The upsets were by the Jazz (+ 8 at Timberwolves), Nuggets (+ 5.5 at Warriors), Blazers (+ 5 vs. Suns) and Spurs (+ 1.5 at Pacers). Road teams went 6-5 SU and 5-4-2 ATS. Overs led 6-4-1 with the push in Suns-Blazers (224).
More NBA: After 4 days of the regular season, faves lead 18-9 SU, but dogs still lead 12-11-4 ATS. Home teams' lead dropped to 14-13 SU, while road teams also dipped to 15-8-4 ATS after an even hotter start. Over/Unders now tied 12-12-3.
NHL: Underdogs swept 3-0 on Friday with upsets by the Kraken (+ 200 at Avalanche), Blackhawks (+ 100 vs. Red Wings) and Lightning (-105 at Panthers). Road teams led 2-1 while Unders also led 2-1. On season, faves still lead 44-27 with 2 pick-’ems, home teams lead 43-28 with 2 neutral-site games and Overs 42-30-1.
CFB: Tulsa (-13.5) beat Temple 27-16, but did NOT cover (stayed Under betting total of 53.5 points) and Western Kentucky (-1) beat UAB 20-17 and did cover (stayed way Under 60.5).
Saturday’s Takes
Kansas State + 3.5 at TCU: .
Indiana + 3 at Rutgers: . Utah State + 4.5 at Wyoming: . UCLA + 6.5 at Oregon: . Oklahoma State + 6.5 vs. Texas: . Mississippi + 2.5 at LSU: .Astros 1st 5 + 0.5 -115 at Yankees: With the ALCS moving to New York, the Astros are on a roll with a 2-0 series lead and winners of six straight overall. I’m not going to fade them (well, at least until they lose!), so taking them Saturday even though they’re facing Gerrit Cole. Besides, Cristian Javier’s stats (11-9, 2.58 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, including 0.59 WHIP in last 3 starts. You can also get Astros 1st 5 + 135 money line. I’m passing on Braves-Phillies.
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I also have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to bet the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has continued to work very well so far this season as dogs are 52-37-3 ATS (58.4%) vs. my Vegas consensus closing lines with 2 games closing pick’-em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2, Titans-Commanders in Week 5). Last week, faves went 8-6 SU but faves/dogs split 7-7 ATS with the Broncos the only ATS-covering dog that didn’t win outright. It was shaping up as an awesome Sunday as I won my first 3 Best Bets from this column on the Jets + 7.5 at the Packers, Falcons + 4.5 vs. the 49ers and Patriots + 2.5 at the Browns all not only covering but pulling outright upsets. It was setting up to be an epic day as the Panthers (+ 10 at the Rams) jumped out to an early lead, but unfortunately they couldn’t hold on as they not only lost but also failed to cover in a 24-10 loss. Then, on Sunday night, the Cowboys (+ 6.5) rallied to get within 20-17 of the Eagles but ended up losing 26-17 and failing to cover. We did hit our top 2-team, 6-point teasers on the Saints + 8/Seahawks + 8.5 and Chiefs + 8/Seahawks + 8.5, but it could have been so much better. We’ll try to find the same kind of live dogs this weekend. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2)After two straight Thursday night duds (the Colts’ 12-9 win at the Broncos in Week 5 and the Commanders’ 12-7 win at the Bears in Week 6), this week’s matchup at least has an intriguing storyline with DeAndre Hopkins returning from his 6-game PED suspension. The Cardinals’ offense has been woeful (ranked No. 16 at 346 yards per game) without him, especially in first halves. Arizona QB Kyler Murray is clearly better with Hopkins, but will the improvement be enough against a Saints team that needs this game just as much as the Cardinals as both teams are 2-4. As of deadline Tuesday night, it was still uncertain whether Jameis Winston would return or if Andy Dalton will get another start. Either way, the play is to tease the Saints up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. This line opened Cardinals -1.5 but has been steadily drifting higher, so tease + 2.5 up to + 8.5 if you can get it. There are several teasers to pair this with on Sunday (we’ll get to th ose in a bit), but for our purposes here, let’s use it with the Over 38.5 in this game.
Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Saints + 8.5/Over 38.5.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
I gave out the Lions as one of my early Best Bets for this week on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights, or 15 minutes into the archived version). This is partly a fade of the Cowboys, who might be throwing a rusty Dak Prescott back into the starting lineup, but it’s mostly a play on the Lions, who have been golden in the underdog role (11-6 ATS last year, 3-1 ATS this year with a loss the only time they were favored vs. the Seahawks). Granted, the Lions were shut out 29-0 at the Patriots in Week 5, but we’re counting on them to have used their much-needed bye week to get back on track as Jared Goff and the Lions were the top offensive team in the league through the first four weeks of the season and are still No. 2 at 411.8 yard per game and No. 3 with 28 points per game. In addition, we picked up a nice little tidbit from our VSiN colleague Steve Makinen’s “post-bye week” column as the Lions are 7-2- 1 SU and 9-1 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012.
Best Bet: Lions + 7 (pool play: Lions 67/33 in ATS contests – higher at 7.5, lower at 6.5 – though Cowboys still 70/30 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)This is another early game I gave out and bet I made right away as I was stunned that the red-hot Giants (5-1 SU and ATS) were this big of an underdog against the Jaguars (2-4 SU and ATS). Well, it wasn’t too much of a surprise as that’s around where the advance line was over the summer and up through last week, but I thought the Giants’ start and especially their upsets of the Packers and Ravens the past two weeks would have this line moving toward the G-men. In fact, I’m not sure the right team is favored as the Jaguars – as improved as they are – shouldn't be the chalk as the only time they’ve been put in the favorite’s role this season was two weeks ago when they lost 13-6 to the Texans as 7-point home favorites. The only thing I feared was that I would be on a public dog, which is usually the kiss of death, but I’m pot-committed here.