Wednesday is usually a relatively light sports betting day, at least it is in early fall until mid-week MACtion games usually start in November.
I kind of wish it had stayed that way this Wednesday as we had a pretty full card of NBA openers after the official Tuesday doubleheader tipped off the season the night before. I chose not to get involved in betting on any of the NBA games, though I wish I had as underdogs went 7-3-2 ATS, so there were some live dogs to start the season and I feel like I missed the proverbial boat. My supposed “Best Bet” of the day was on Georgia State + 10 at Appalachian State. I felt pretty good about that play when Georgia State jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but App State scored 28 unanswered points on the way to not only win the game but cover in a 42-17 victory. The way I lost that bet left me wondering (along with the Carolina Panthers’ similar situations on Sunday where they led early only to fail to cover) if I should be betting more football games the way I’ve been betting baseball most of the summer and fall: first half instead of the full game. However, even that didn’t help me with my only MLB play (I am glad I passed on the underdog Yankees) as I had the Phillies 1st 5 + 100 at the Padres and they were leading 4-2 heading into the bottom of the 5th only to have the Padres explode for 5 runs and a 7-4 lead to make a loss of that ticket as well. All in all, hump day was a disappointment, but luckily we have an NFL game on Thursday and plenty more football the rest of the weekend. So, let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s betting action, and then we have a Best Bet on TNF as well as Game 2 of the ALCS. Then, as has become our custom this season, we’ll rerun our full Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on every game of the NFL card for the weekend. Wednesday’s RecapsMLB: Astros (-181 home favorites) beat Yankees 4-2 on Wednesday night in Game 1 of the ALCS (game stayed Under the betting total of 7 runs). Earlier, Padres (-115 home faves) rallied to beat the Phillies 8-5 to even the NLCS at 1-1 (went Over total of 7).
More MLB: Faves took 2-1 lead in LCS round, but dogs still lead 14-13 overall with 1 pick-'em. Home teams also took 2-1 lead in this round and lead 16-12 overall. Over/Unders split 1-1 on Wednesday, so Unders still lead 2-1 in this round and 14-13-1 overall.
NBA: Favorites went 8-4 SU on the first full night of the regular season, but underdogs led 7-3-2 ATS. The outright upsets were by the Bulls (+ 7.5 at Heat), Jazz (+ 7 vs. Nuggets), Blazers (+ 3.5 at Kings) and Pelicans (+ 3 at Nets). The Thunder (+ 11 at Timberwolves), Knicks (+ 4.5 at Grizzlies) and Mavericks (+ 4 at Suns) covered as dogs in SU losses. The pushes were Pistons (-4 vs. Magic) and Hawks (-10 vs. Rockets). Home teams went 7-5 SU, but road teams led 8-2-2 ATS. Unders led 6-4-2 with pushes in Knicks-Grizzlies (227) and Nuggets-Jazz (225).
More NBA: After 2 days of the regular season, faves lead 10-4 SU, but dogs lead 7-5-2 ATS. Home teams are 9-5 SU, but road teams lead 8-4-2 ATS. Over/Unders are tied at 6-6-2.
NHL: Faves went 2-1 Wednesday with the lone upset by the Jets (+ 195 in 4-3 OT win at Avalanche). Road teams went 2-1. Overs went a perfect 3-0. On the season, faves lead 37-20 with 1 pick-'em, home teams lead 33-23 with 2 neutral-site games and Overs improved to 33-24-1.
CFB: Appalachian State beat Georgia State 42-17, easily covering as 9-point home favorite despite falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter (stayed Under betting total of 61 points).
NFL (ICYMI): Faves went 8-6 SU in Week 6, but split 7-7 ATS (Broncos covering on MNF was only ATS winning dog to not win outright). Faves lead 54-37-1 SU on the season with 2 pick-’ems (Commanders-Lions in Week 2, Titans-Commanders in Week 5), but dogs lead 52-37-3 ATS (58.4%). Home teams went 8-6 SU and 7-7 ATS in Week 6 and lead 49-42-1 SU, but road teams lead 47-42-3 ATS (52.8%). Unders went 10-4 in Week 6 and climbed back over 60% at 56-37-1 (60.2%) while primetime Unders went 2-1 and are 13-6 (68.4%) on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights.
Thursday’s Takes
Saints + 8.5/Over 38 (2-team, 6-point teaser): We made this a Best Bet in our Wednesday column below, so read that for more details. The Saints announced more injuries on Wednesday, so this total has continued to drop and you might be able to tease 43.5 down to 37.5, so shop around for the best lines.
Yankees 1st 5 + 0.5 -115 at Astros: We didn’t take the underdog Yankees in Game 1 because they were coming off their tough, five-game series vs. the Guardians and having to travel to Houston on zero day’s rest and face Justin Verlander. But we’ll take our chances on them with Luis Severino vs. Framber Valdez. Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I also have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to bet the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has continued to work very well so far this season as dogs are 52-37-3 ATS (58.4%) vs. my Vegas consensus closing lines with 2 games closing pick’-em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2, Titans-Commanders in Week 5). Last week, faves went 8-6 SU but faves/dogs split 7-7 ATS with the Broncos the only ATS-covering dog that didn’t win outright. It was shaping up as an awesome Sunday as I won my first 3 Best Bets from this column on the Jets + 7.5 at the Packers, Falcons + 4.5 vs. the 49ers and Patriots + 2.5 at the Browns all not only covering but pulling outright upsets. It was setting up to be an epic day as the Panthers (+ 10 at the Rams) jumped out to an early lead, but unfortunately they couldn’t hold on as they not only lost but also failed to cover in a 24-10 loss. Then, on Sunday night, the Cowboys (+ 6.5) rallied to get within 20-17 of the Eagles but ended up losing 26-17 and failing to cover. We did hit our top 2-team, 6-point teasers on the Saints + 8/Seahawks + 8.5 and Chiefs + 8/Seahawks + 8.5, but it could have been so much better. We’ll try to find the same kind of live dogs this weekend. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2)After two straight Thursday night duds (the Colts’ 12-9 win at the Broncos in Week 5 and the Commanders’ 12-7 win at the Bears in Week 6), this week’s matchup at least has an intriguing storyline with DeAndre Hopkins returning from his 6-game PED suspension. The Cardinals’ offense has been woeful (ranked No. 16 at 346 yards per game) without him, especially in first halves. Arizona QB Kyler Murray is clearly better with Hopkins, but will the improvement be enough against a Saints team that needs this game just as much as the Cardinals as both teams are 2-4. As of deadline Tuesday night, it was still uncertain whether Jameis Winston would return or if Andy Dalton will get another start. Either way, the play is to tease the Saints up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. This line opened Cardinals -1.5 but has been steadily drifting higher, so tease + 2.5 up to + 8.5 if you can get it. There are several teasers to pair this with on Sunday (we’ll get to th ose in a bit), but for our purposes here, let’s use it with the Over 38.5 in this game.
Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Saints + 8/Over 38.5 (pool play: Saints in all of my rare contests that use the Thursday night game).
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
I gave out the Lions as one of my early Best Bets for this week on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights, or 15 minutes into the archived version). This is partly a fade of the Cowboys, who might be throwing a rusty Dak Prescott back into the starting lineup, but it’s mostly a play on the Lions, who have been golden in the underdog role (11-6 ATS last year, 3-1 ATS this year with a loss the only time they were favored vs. the Seahawks). Granted, the Lions were shut out 29-0 at the Patriots in Week 5, but we’re counting on them to have used their much-needed bye week to get back on track as Jared Goff and the Lions were the top offensive team in the league through the first four weeks of the season and are still No. 2 at 411.8 yard per game and No. 3 with 28 points per game. In addition, we picked up a nice little tidbit from our VSiN colleague Steve Makinen’s “post-bye week” column as the Lions are 7-2- 1 SU and 9-1 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012.
Best Bet: Lions + 7 (pool play: Lions 67/33 in ATS contests – higher at 7.5, lower at 6.5 – though Cowboys still 70/30 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)This is another early game I gave out and bet I made right away as I was stunned that the red-hot Giants (5-1 SU and ATS) were this big of an underdog against the Jaguars (2-4 SU and ATS). Well, it wasn’t too much of a surprise as that’s around where the advance line was over the summer and up through last week, but I thought the Giants’ start and especially their upsets of the Packers and Ravens the past two weeks would have this line moving toward the G-men. In fact, I’m not sure the right team is favored as the Jaguars – as improved as they are – shouldn't be the chalk as the only time they’ve been put in the favorite’s role this season was two weeks ago when they lost 13-6 to the Texans as 7-point home favorites. The only thing I feared was that I would be on a public dog, which is usually the kiss of death, but I’m pot-committed here.