Saturday was a roller-coaster of a day, ups and downs, highs and lows, as is often the case on a fall Saturday with wall-to-wall college football, plus the MLB season winding down with wild-card chases and our horse racing action.
It was also Oct. 1, the 5th anniversary of the worst mass shooting in U.S. history at a country music festival across from the Mandalay Bay Resort. It happened to also be my first NFL Sunday at VSiN and I watched all of the games earlier that day at the eerily similar Downtown Events Center, owned by Derek Stevens, who hadn’t started building the Circa yet. The games and my bets were a welcome diversion from thoughts of that tragic day. Unfortunately, I lost my Best Bet on Texas A&M and split my other two top plays (winning on UL-Lafayette + 8.5 vs. South Alabama and losing on Virginia + 3 at Duke; I won with Tulane on Friday night, so I went a vig-losing 2-2 ATS with my top plays and 4-4 ATS overall with my bets on Saturday. I also lost my top MLB play on the A’s 1st 5 + 180 at the Mariners as they trailed 3-1 after the first 5 innings. I also lost my three horse racing picks from my “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” column, though I was playing in a National Horseplayers Championship qualifying tournament that offered seats to the top 2 finishers, I was in 2nd place most of the 12-race contest with 3 winners ($44.60, $27.60 and $12), but it was an 18-1 winner at Santa Anita that I missed that allowed some other contestants to pass me and I ended up finishing in third place. I missed out on qualifying, but the NHC Tour points should move me up the yearly leaderboard where the Top 75 non-qualifiers still earn a spot in the finale. We have until January to make that happen. In addition to all the actual betting action, I also followed the release of the Circa Sports Million and Circa Survivor selections with my weekly “Circa contest update” that you can find HERE. Anyway, it was a losing day overall for yours truly, but as we’ve been saying so far this football season – bring on the NFL as we have a full card on Sunday, starting early with the Vikings-Saints from London at 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT. First, let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s betting action with our daily recaps, then give our Best Bets for Sunday, including updating Wednesday’s column in which we give our “takes” on the full schedule.Saturday’s Recaps
CFB: No. 1 Georgia had to rally to escape with a 26-22 win at Missouri, but did NOT cover as 31.5-point road favorite. No. 2 Alabama (-17) covered in 49-26 win at Arkansas, No. 3 Ohio State (-39.5) did NOT cover in 49-10 win vs. Rutgers, No. 4 Michigan (-10.5) covered in 27-14 win at Iowa and No. 6 USC (-25) did NOT cover in 42-25 win vs. Arizona State.
More CFB: In games between ranked teams, No. 5 Clemson (-6.5) covered in 30-20 win vs. No. 10 North Carolina State, No. 9 Oklahoma State (+ 2.5) upset No. 16 Baylor 36-25, No. 14 Mississippi (-6.5) did NOT cover in 22-19 win vs. No. 7 Kentucky and No. 22 Wake Forest (+ 6) upset No. 23 Florida State.
MLB: Faves went 9-6 Saturday with White Sox-Padres closing pick-'em. The biggest upsets were by the Nationals (+ 175 in 13-4 rout vs. Phillies), Marlins (+ 160 in 4-3 at Brewers) and Royals (+ 154 in 7-1 win at Guardians). Home teams went 12-4. Overs went 8-7-1 with push in White Sox-Padres (7).
More MLB: Faves lead 1,409-910 SU (60.8 percent) on the season with 37 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace and well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,252-1,113 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but had been on the rise but slipping lately). Unders lead 1,160-1,085-121 (51.7 percent).
NFL (ICYMI): With Bengals’ home/fave/Under result on Thursday Night Football, favorites improved to 27-20-1 SU on the season with 1 pick-'em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2), but underdogs still lead 27-19-2 ATS (58.7 percent). Home teams improved to 26-22-1 SU and 24-23-2 ATS. Unders improved to 30-18-1 (62.5 percent), while primetime Unders improved to 8-3 (after going 1-2 in Week 3).
Sunday’s Takes
Titans + 4at Colts
Texans + 6 vs. Chargers Patriots + 9.5 at Packers MLB: I don’t like any dogs on Sunday’s schedule (gun to my head, I’ve say Marlins/Lopez 1st 5 + 125 at the Brewers/Peralta and/or the A’s/Kaprielan 1st 5 + 200 at the Mariners), so let’s pass and give our full attention to the NFL. Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to bet the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has worked very well so far this NFL season as underdogs are 27-18-2 ATS (60 percent) vs. the consensus closing lines in Vegas through the first three weeks (note: we’ve graded one game as closing pick-’em: Commanders at Lions in Week 2, so that’s why our stats have just 47 games). During the first two weeks of the season, we were a little disappointed as we weren’t killing it as much as we would expect with so many dogs covering, but went 3-1 ATS with our Best Bets in this column last week (plus also hit our top 2-team, 6-point teaser play with the Dolphins and Lions), so we’re feeling better about ourselves and our decision-making process with these dogs. Personally, I have one bit of bad dog news as I had to take one of my dogs, Beemo, to the vet on Tuesday as he got into a bag of chocolate chip cookies that I made the other day. Hopefully, he and the rest of my dogs this weekend are healthy and strong. Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4) Best Bet: Dolphins + 4 (pool play: Dolphins in all of my rare SU and ATS contests that use the Thursday night game). Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (in London)This is the first “international” game this season from London, so beware that it starts at 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT on Sunday. The Vikings have been an up-and-down team already in the young season with a Week 1 win over the NFC North rival Packers, then getting dominated by the Eagles in Week 2 before rallying to beat the Lions 28-24 in Week 3 (and failing to cover as 6.5-point home favorites). Now, they’re 2.5-point faves at most Las Vegas books and -3 at DraftKings against a Saints team that has lost two straight games to the Buccaneers and Panthers after barely beating the Falcons 27-26 in the opener. The Vikings are the better team right now, but not by a wide margin and I’m not going to lay the points on the road chalk. Instead, this is the right time to talk about our preferred teasers where we capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. My top “advantage teaser” is to take a 2-team, 6-point teaser with the Saints + 8.5 tied with the Falcon s + 8 vs. the Browns as well as other combinations with the Cardinals + 7.5 at the Panthers, Broncos + 8.5 at the Raiders and Rams + 8.5 at the 49ers on Monday Night Football.
Best Bet: Saints + 8.5 or better with Falcons + 8 vs. the Browns, plus other teasers (pool play: Saints around 55/45 in ATS contests – higher if getting + 3 or 3.5 – but Vikings still 55/45 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
I’ve already gone on record with the Titans getting more than a field goal in this coin-flip game at the Colts. Both teams earned their first wins of the season in Week 3 after slow starts (the Titans lost to the Giants and Bills before breaking through against the Raiders while the Colts were 0-1-1 with a tie vs. the Texans and a blowout loss to the Jaguars before rallying to beat the Chiefs 20-17 on Sunday). These teams were expected to be battling for the AFC South title, but instead they’re chasing the first-place Jaguars with the loser of this game in a bigger hole. Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill played better in the win over the Raiders, plus Derrick Henry is still a beast.
Best Bet: Titans + 3.5 (pool play: Titans 75/25 in ATS contests – lower at 3 or especially 2.5 – plus slightly better than 50/50 in SU pools).
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3)
We have an unlikely matchup of 2-1 teams here with the Bears visiting the Giants. The Bears are setting offensive football back by the decade, but it’s working as they continue to wait for Justin Fields to develop. The Bears are No. 6 in rushing offense and take on a Giants’ rushing defense that ranked No. 28, and we don’t think it matters if starting RB David Montgomery (knee, ankle injuries) is able to go as backup Khalil Herbert (157 yards, 2 TDs vs. the Texans) might be the bigger threat anyway.
Best Bet: Bears + 3, but waiting for 3.5 (pool play: Bears 67/33 in ATS contests – even higher if offered 3.5 – and we’ll call for outright upset with Bears 55/45 in SU pools).
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
Even though this is in the cluttered 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT window, this is arguably the marquee game of Week 4. Both teams are just 2-1 with the Ravens inexplicably losing to the Dolphins in Week 2 and the Bills falling to the Dolphins in Week 3 despite outgaining them 497 yards to 212. I successfully faded the Bills last week with the Dolphins, but I don’t think I’m going to be willing to do that again even if this gets back to + 3.5 or even 4. In addition to an explosive offense, the Bills are No. 1 in total defense, allowing just 214 yards per game while the Ravens are last at 457.3.